The Miami Dolphins will try to keep control of the AFC East when they visit the New York Jets for the first NFL Black Friday matchup in NFL Week 12 at MetLife Stadium. The Dolphins (7-3) eased past the Las Vegas Raiders 20-13 last Sunday and have two fewer losses than the Buffalo Bills, who have their bye next week. The Jets (4-6) dropped their third straight game last Sunday, losing 32-6 to the Buffalo Bills. They will turn to quarterback Tim Boyle, who replaced Zach Wilson in the second half last week. The Dolphins have won five of the past six meetings.
Kickoff at New York's MetLife Stadium is set for 3 p.m. ET. The latest Dolphins vs. Jets odds list the Dolphins as 9.5-point favorites, while the over/under for total points scored is 40.5. Before you make any Jets vs. Dolphins Black Friday NFL picks, you need to see the NFL predictions and betting advice from SportsLine's advanced computer model.
The model, which simulates every NFL game 10,000 times, is up well over $7,000 for $100 players on top-rated NFL picks since its inception. The model enters Week 12 of the 2023 NFL season on an incredible 175-126 run on top-rated NFL picks that dates back to the 2017 season. It is also on a 29-18 roll on top-rated NFL picks since Week 7 of last season.
The model also ranked in the top 10 on NFLPickWatch four of the past six years on straight-up NFL picks and beat more than 94 percent of CBS Sports Football Pick'em players four times during that span. Anyone who has followed it is way up.
Now, the model has simulated Dolphins vs. Jets 10,000 times and just revealed its coveted NFL picks and predictions. You can head to SportsLine now to see the model's picks. Here are several NFL odds and betting lines for Jets vs. Dolphins:
- Dolphins vs. Jets spread: Miami -9.5
- Dolphins vs. Jets over/under: 40.5 points
- Dolphins vs. Jets money line: Miami -484, New York +363
- MIA: Dolphins are 6-7-1 ATS on the road under coach Mike McDaniel (since 2022)
- NYJ: Jets are 10-12 ATS as the home team under Robert Salah (since 2021)
- Dolphins vs. Jets picks: See picks at SportsLine
Why the Dolphins can cover
Miami has the league's best offense, scoring 30.5 points per game and producing 291 passing yards per contest. The Dolphins are second in rushing, averaging 143 yards. Receiver Tyreek Hill has been nearly unstoppable, piling up 1,222 yards in the first 10 games, most in that time frame in the Super Bowl era. He's a big reason Tua Tagovailoa is third in the NFL in passing yards (2,934), and Jaylen Waddle has 577 yards and averages 13.1 per catch.
If the Jets rely on the run game, Miami should be ready, as the defense allows 3.8 yards per carry, seventh in the NFL. The Dolphins had three interceptions against the Raiders last week and are tied for ninth in the league with 31 sacks, led by Bradley Chubb with six. Miami's defense allows just under 320 yards per game, 12th in the league, and the Jets have the NFL's third-worst offense. They average just 270 yards and 15 points per game, both 30th in the NFL. See who to back at SportsLine.
Why the Jets can cover
While Miami hasn't beaten a winning team since Week 3 of 2022, New York has home victories this season against the Bills and Eagles. The loss was Philadelphia's only one so far this season, so the Jets can beat anyone on their home turf. Boyle hasn't seen much work but has weapons around him. They include wideout Garrett Wilson (651 receiving yards) and running back Breece Hall (840 total yards). Tight end Tyler Conklin has 35 catches for 381 yards.
The Jets, who are 4-4 against the spread as an underdog and 3-2 ATS at home, are likely to put more emphasis on the run game. They average 4.6 yards per carry, fourth-best in the NFL, but are 30th in rush attempts. With an unproven quarterback, that should change Friday. New York's strength is a defense that allows 4.9 yards per play (fourth in NFL) and 178.5 passing yards per game (fifth). The Jets also have 10 interceptions, getting four from safety Jordan Whitehead. See who to back at SportsLine.
How to make Dolphins vs. Jets picks
SportsLine's model is leaning Over the total, projecting 41 combined points. The model also says one side of the spread hits in well over 50% of simulations. You can only see the model's NFL picks and analysis at SportsLine.
So who wins the NFL Black Friday Dolphins vs. Jets matchup, and which side of the spread hits almost 60% of the time? Visit SportsLine now to see which side of the Jets vs. Dolphins spread to back, all from the model that has returned well over $7,000 on top-rated NFL picks, and find out.
Dolphins vs. Jets odds, line, spread: 2023 NFL Black Friday picks, predictions by NFL model on 175-126 run - CBS Sports
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