Here’s the thing about the NBA playoffs: A lot of guys who played a fair number of minutes this season are about to become irrelevant. Nobody takes a DNP-rest in the postseason and nobody misses games with minor injuries. Coaches shorten rotations, backup bigs become extinct and starters play a far bigger chunk of the games.
Because of that, a team’s “playoff strength” can differ from its “regular-season strength” in important ways. The 701 minutes MarJon Beauchamp played for Milwaukee don’t matter; he’s sitting in the playoffs unless there’s a blowout. A.J. Griffin and Aaron Holiday combined for 2,246 minutes in Atlanta this season; I can pencil them in for roughly zero against Boston.
Conversely, Kevin Durant might play more playoff games as a Phoenix Sun than he did regular-season games for them (eight). Players such as Robert Williams, Jae Crowder and Gary Payton II, who were bit players in the regular season, are likely to become much more important factors now that they are seemingly at full strength.
Between trades and injury absences, a number of teams in the Western Conference in particular profile as stronger than if you just look at regular-season data. Alas, injuries also cut the other way — Memphis losing its two best centers and the Clippers likely not having Paul George for a few games cut against those teams’ odds.
If only I had a way to rate such a thing? Well, now I do.
Using three common all-in-one predictive rating systems (LEBRON, DARKO and EPM), and a back-of-the-envelope projection of each team’s postseason minutes distribution, I came up with “Postseason Lineup Anticipated Net Impact“ or, in a hat tip to one of East Rutherford’s finest, “PLANINIC.”
The rating is an estimate of the points-per-100 possessions ratings of the team’s five-man lineups, summed up so that it yields their points per 100 for a game. For example, the average lineup used by the Atlanta Hawks in a playoff series projects to be 2.4 points per 100 possessions better than league average, so the Hawks’ PLANINIC rating is +2.4.
Because these are playoff teams, and because they are by and large playing their best lineups, every one of these clubs will rate as above average. Yes, even the Hawks. However, there are some big differences within the group, and those interesting West series do get … interesting. I’ll show each team’s PLANINIC rating with its series prediction below, but to give you an idea of where everyone is relative to one another, here are what I’d consider the tiers heading into the playoffs:
TIER 4: Thanks for stopping by
18. Oklahoma City -0.4
17. Chicago +2.1
16. Atlanta +2.4
15. Brooklyn +3.3
TIER 3: It would take a perfect storm but …
14. Sacramento +3.6
13. Miami +4.1
12. LA Clippers +4.3
11. Minnesota +5.4
10. New York +5.4
TIER 2: Not quite elite, but dangerous
9. L.A. Lakers +5.6
8. Memphis +6.1
7. Golden State +6.8
6. Cleveland +7.0
TIER 1: The contender class
5. Phoenix +7.9
4. Philadelphia +8.3
3. Denver +9.6
2. Boston +9.9
1. Milwaukee +10.9
My round-by-round picks are below, and I should point out that PLANINIC is not the only thing I considered in making these predictions. It’s my rating, and I’ll ignore it if I want to. In all seriousness, there are some other factors besides the general noisiness of the methodology.
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For instance, home-court advantage still matters, and in particular, it still matters in first-round series in which the home-court team also won the season series. Historically, underdogs in those situations are toast.
Even with all the caveats listed above, playoff upsets are less common than you might imagine. On average, we only get four series a year (out of 15 total) in which a team without home-court advantage wins. We haven’t had more than five in any year since 1995 and have had at least two every year since the perfectly chalk 1997 postseason.
Despite the perception that playoff and regular-season results have become less correlated, this trend has largely held. As recently as 2019, only two teams won without home-court advantage; this also happened in 2015 and 2017. Last year, we only had three (Dallas over Phoenix, Golden State over Memphis and Boston over Miami).
Additionally, since everyone gets excited about first-round series, I should point out that lower seeds in the first round have had a really hard time. Seventh and eighth seeds in the last quarter century are a combined 5-95; sixth seeds are a slightly rosier 7-43 and have advanced just once since 2015.
However, every playoff series is it’s own special little micro league, and we have some unusual cases here. Let’s get into the nitty-gritty of it all and see what my crystal ball says:
First Round
(1) Milwaukee (PLANINIC +10.6) vs. (8) Miami (+4.2) or Chicago (+2.1): The Heat rate as pretty strong for a No. 8 seed despite their blah performance against Atlanta on Tuesday and the generally decrepit state of the Miami supporting cast. Of course, Miami got smoked on the glass against Atlanta and figures to face more of the same against a huge Bucks team. Miami did beat the Bucks twice this season, but Giannis Antetokounmpo missed both games.
As for the Bulls, they were low-key pretty good down the stretch after a disappointing start. Zach LaVine had an All-NBA-caliber second half, Alex Caruso is an all-world defender and Coby White has started turning the corner. They still are addicted to tough 2s and lack the interior defense to hang with Giannis and Brook Lopez, however, so they likely wouldn’t be a problem for Milwaukee.
Either way, expect the Bucks to roll. Milwaukee’s point differential this season seems superficially unimpressive because the B team played so many minutes, but PLANINIC thinks the Bucks’ best groups can beat anybody. Pick: Milwaukee in five.
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(2) Boston (+9.9) vs. (7) Atlanta (+2.4): PLANINIC saw Atlanta’s win in the Play-In as a pretty big upset; it had the Heat as a two-point favorite even on a neutral floor. The Hawks doing anything in this series would be an even bigger shocker; Atlanta lost all three regular-season meetings against the Celtics and five straight dating to the middle of last season.
This, of course, is a rematch of the most lopsided seven-game series in NBA history: the legendary 2008 Celtics-Hawks matchup that gave us Zaza on the mic, three Atlanta home wins by a combined 17 points and four beatdowns in Boston by a combined 101. Fun times.
Unfortunately for Atlanta, Al Horford is on the other side now, Boston has two hellhound defensive guards to throw at Trae Young and the Hawks have no wing answer for Jayson Tatum. Let’s move on. Pick: Celtics in five.
(3) Philadelphia (+8.3) vs. (6) Brooklyn (+3.3): Loser has to pay Ben Simmons.
A defanged Brooklyn team post-Kevin Durant is better than you might think but still should be no match for the Sixers. Philly won all four regular-season meetings, and the Nets don’t really have anyone to guard Joel Embiid, not with Nic Claxton weighing in at 43 pounds.
The strategy, of course, will be to double him with the Nets’ myriad big wings, try to force turnovers and make the other Sixers beat them. That almost worked in the one most relevant game between the teams, a 101-98 Philly win shortly after the Durant trade. If Mikal “Brooklyn” Bridges continues his post-trade hot streak and the Nets make their 3s, they can steal a game or two. But taking four out of seven feels like a pipe dream. Pick: Sixers in five.
(4) Cleveland (+7.0) vs. (5) New York (+5.4): I haven’t talked a ton about the Knicks this season, but this version shapes up as a much better postseason outfit than their surprise playoff team of two years ago. They have a whiff of the Sacramento health factor as a wind at their back in the regular season that won’t be there for them in the playoffs. But New York’s core seven or eight guys who will play the most are almost entirely rock solid. Obviously, I’m pricing in a Julius Randle return when I say this; if he can’t go, this could get ugly, but the extra week the Play-In Tournament gave us could make a big difference.
On that note: I’ll add that the Knicks’ PLANINIC rating also would rise considerably if they stopped playing RJ Barrett and gave his minutes to Immanuel Quickley, Josh Hart or Zoran Planinić; his eventual replacement looms as one of the more obvious mid-series adjustments.
Historical factors also favor the Knicks. They won two of the three regular-season games against the Cavs, something that historically gives underdogs a much greater chance in first-round series. Additionally, history says that while other first-round matchups are pretty one-sided, the 4 vs. 5 matchup is a toss-up.
Two factors, however, work against New York. First, can we talk about Cleveland? Do you realize the Cavs had the second-best scoring margin in the entire NBA at +5.5 per game? The Cavs led the NBA in defensive efficiency and should have the best player on the court in Donovan Mitchell. They’re good enough to make a run.
I’m just not sure this is their year, not with three of their four key players having near-zero playoff experience, a lingering giant question mark at small forward and a very iffy bench. The questionable injury status of Isaac Okoro doesn’t help, although the Knicks don’t require a wing defensive stopper the way some other opponents might.
Tom Thibodeau’s career has been littered with playoff disappointments, but this might be a chance to get one back in the positive column. And how about his belated conversion to shot-chart nerddom? The Knicks were 27th in long 2 attempts this season!
Overall, the Knicks have a lot of factors pointing in their favor, and I think their perimeter-heavy game makes them better suited to dealing with Cleveland’s daunting Evan Mobley–Jarrett Allen rim-protection tandem than some other clubs. I’ll swing for the upset here. Pick: Knicks in seven
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(1) Denver (+9.2) vs. (8) Minnesota (+5.4) or Oklahoma City (-0.4): I’ll get into more depth on the Nuggets later, but suffice it to say they aren’t losing to one of these teams unless there’s a major injury.
That said, Minnesota is frisky enough to make this interesting for a week, even without Jaden McDaniels and Naz Reid.
Nikola Jokić vs. Karl-Anthony Towns and Rudy Gobert would be a fun storyline, and Minnesota has enough starting perimeter talent to hang with Denver on most nights. It won’t be enough, but it will be entertaining.
As for the Thunder, their centerless small-ball funkiness would be challenged, to say the least, against Jokić. They lost three of the four meetings between the teams, winning only the game Jokić didn’t play. They’ll throw all kinds of traps and smoke and mirrors at the Nuggets, but in the end, I don’t see how they get enough stops. Pick: Denver in six vs. Minnesota; in four vs. Oklahoma City.
(2) Memphis (+6.4) vs. (7) L.A. Lakers (+5.9): Everyone is talking about the Lakers because they’ve looked a lot better since midseason, and the numbers support the idea that the lineup the Lakers will send out in a playoff series is much stronger than the ones they typically played in the regular season.
That said, the roster still has warts. The Lakers replaced their awful players with average ones, but this is still a top-heavy roster relying on two elite but increasingly brittle stars. Anthony Davis has stretches of every game where it looks like he might not ever get up again, and LeBron James has seemed noticeably less bursty since returning from a torn tendon in his foot.
Davis could have the advantage against the Grizzlies, who lost both Steven Adams and Brandon Clarke for the year and will be playing small in the postseason. The Lakers are the top foul-drawing team in the league and could put them on the Grizzlies’ imposing-but-foul-prone Jaren Jackson Jr., which would further deplete the Grizzlies frontcourt. Also, you can make the argument that it’s tough to pick the Grizzlies when the Lakers will have the two best players.
Memphis, however, will have the third-, fourth-, fifth-, sixth- and seventh-best players, and I’m not sure Ja Morant is far behind James and Davis at this point. And while L.A.’s second group is better than it was, it’s still at a clear disadvantage against the Griz. The Lakers are very capable of advancing, but they need the two stars to stay in the lineup the entire series and at least one of their new acquisitions to overachieve for two weeks. Pick: Grizzlies in seven.
(3) Sacramento (+3.9) vs. (6) Golden State (+6.5): OK, let’s talk about Sacramento. The Kings’ campaign is one of the season’s biggest, happiest and most unexpected success stories, and The Beam is an improbably awesome creation. And yet, astute observers will note the Kings have among the lowest PLANINIC ratings on the board.
There’s a reason for that: The Kings’ near-miraculous run of health, with their top eight players each playing at least 73 games, stops being an advantage against an opponent that also presumably will be at full strength.
Some of that was driven by the talent, yes — Domantas Sabonis essentially ignored a left-hand injury that would have taken many players out for weeks. Still, the Kings’ big secret lifehack this season was virtually never having to use bad players because they were so absurdly healthy. Players not in their projected playoff 10-man rotation played just 1,469 minutes this season; Anthony Lamb alone played 1,195 for the Warriors, not to mention the other assorted Moodys, Jeromes and Wisemans who dotted Golden State’s lineups.
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As noted by Dunc’d On’s Dan Feldman, the Kings also played the fewest games against opponents with both of their top two players available (just 35). I assume the Warriors plan on playing Stephen Curry and Draymond Green in this series, so that’s another Kings advantage that won’t carry over.
For Golden State’s projection, I assumed Andrew Wiggins plays but isn’t taking full shifts quite yet; he’s not impactful enough to really change their rating anyway. (Ditto for Payton, by the way.) The way Wiggins and Payton do impact the Warriors, however, is by filling a spot in the rotation that would have gone to one of Lamb/Ty Jerome/Moses Moody.
Even with that, the defending champs don’t quite project as the juggernaut they were a year ago. But even against a raucous crowd and THE BEAM, the Warriors should have more than enough juice to advance. Pick: Warriors in six.
(4) Phoenix (+7.9) vs. (5) LA Clippers (+4.1): I rated the Clippers based on Paul George playing half the series, but even if he miraculously recovers and plays 40 minutes in Game 1, the Clippers are in trouble. They are essentially dealing with two issues: First, they are playing the Durant-Phoenix buzz saw. Second, they don’t have a third-best player.
I’ll get more into the Suns further down, but for now, let’s talk about the Clippers. I wasn’t a fan of the Russell Westbrook pickup, but his presence has been mildly positive. Relative to their other options, he certainly hasn’t hurt them, and with George out, he may be genuinely helpful in second units that otherwise have limited shot creation.
LA has also resolved some other rotational issues with midseason maneuvers to add Eric Gordon and Mason Plumlee, plus the belated realization that maybe Marcus Morris Sr. isn’t good enough to play 36 minutes and have 10 isos a game run for him. (He had a PER of 10.5 and somehow started 65 games for a playoff team, and maybe it’s just me, but it felt like every ATO this year was a Morris post-up.) Morris is the Clippers’ Barrett, as far as PLANINIC is concerned — the Clips’ odds go up if they give his minutes to Nic Batum and Terance Mann.
If you’re looking for rays of hope, the Clippers did split the season series with Phoenix. However, Durant didn’t play any of the four games, and the fourth was a season finale the Suns were strongly incentivized to lose so they wouldn’t face the Warriors in the first round. Pick: Suns in six.
Second Round
(1) Milwaukee (+10.6) vs. (5) New York (+5.7): Here is where I politely excuse myself from the Knicks bandwagon; in terms of second-round opponents, the Bucks probably have more to fear from a Cleveland team with multiple elite rim protectors, one of whom can plausibly stay with Giannis. The Bucks split the season series with the Cavs but won all three contests against the Knicks.
In the past, the Knicks could maybe hope to steal a game or two by raining a bunch of 3s, but Milwaukee’s defense no longer hemorrhages opponent 3s. They still have elite rim protection with Lopez and Giannis, plus an all-world defender in Jrue Holiday to harass Jalen Brunson. The Knicks would be playing with house money by this point; it feels like a pretty easy series for the Bucks. Pick: Milwaukee in five.
(2) Boston (+9.9) vs. (3) Philadelphia (+8.3): I expect this to be one of the best series of the playoffs, if not the best. The Sixers closed the regular season by going 15-7 against a tough schedule, right after I cast aspersions on their credentials as a contender.
Heading into the playoffs, they check the “contender” boxes of at least 52 wins, at least a top-three seed and at least a +3.0 scoring margin.
They also have the likely MVP on their team, a player Boston may have difficultly matching up against despite the Celtics’ quality size.
The other wrinkle here is the P.J. Tucker factor. Most of the data show Tucker is kind of cooked, a total non-entity offensively whose defense isn’t quite at the level of two or three years ago. But the Sixers’ power forward rotation isn’t exactly a strength; that’s why they traded for Jalen McDaniels, but he and Georges Niang don’t grade out a whole lot better than Tucker.
So here’s what I’m wondering: Can the Sixers get their best five players on the floor? A lineup with Tobias Harris at four and James Harden, De’Anthony Melton and Tyrese Maxey on the perimeter is small and defensively vulnerable but might be so potent offensively that it doesn’t matter.
The Sixers tried it in bits of pieces of 27 games, for a total of 127 minutes, and it was … OK. They outscored the opposition by 4.8 points of net rating. Dig deeper, though, and the defensive rating of 108.0 is pretty good … and the offensive numbers would look a lot better, except this group only shot 28 percent from 3. Given the noisiness of small sample size theater, one wonders if this quintet is more exploitable.
Against Boston, perhaps it is. The Celtics don’t have a true four who is going to wear out Harris or Melton; if anything, Philly may match up better this way than with its regular lineup.
I bring this up because I don’t think Philadelphia can win the way it lined up against these guys all season, but the Sixers might be able to overwhelm the Celtics with offense if they can get away with this lineup for extended stretches. They already should have the best player on the floor, but this is a big series for Joel Embiid (and Harden, for that matter) to push playoff demons aside.
In the end, I think Boston has a little too much quality in too many places, especially if Robert Williams can play regularly. The Sixers were my preseason pick to win the title, and I want to believe; in fact, I think they’re one of the five teams with a realistic chance to actually win this thing. Unfortunately, they have by far the hardest bracket of the five. Pick: Celtics in seven.
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(1) Denver (+9.6) vs. (4) Phoenix (+7.9): The winner of this series will win the Western Conference. I’m extremely torn on who that will be.
The Nuggets and Suns are birds of a feather in that they feature amazingly strong starting lineups backed up mostly by crossed fingers. No series in NBA history will have a bigger drop-off between first and second units.
The initial temptation is to ride with Phoenix, under the presumption that its guards can put Jokić in compromising defensive situations over and over and over again. That’s what Phoenix did when these teams met two years ago, although aided by the fact that Jokić was totally out of gas after having played every regular-season game.
Denver didn’t make that mistake this season, coasting to the finish line after securing the West’s top seed. Additionally, the Nuggets have a lot more in their bag scheme-wise on the defensive end. With rock solid defenders at the two, three and four, the Nuggets have implemented a lot more switch-to-blitz and other rotations to keep Jokić out of trouble.
Besides, the worst aspect of Jokić’s defense has always been his rim protection, and the Suns don’t put any heat on the rim. They’re going to live and die with the Devin and Kevin Midrange Jumper Show, and while the Suns might have the three best players in the world at shooting from this range (along with Chris Paul), that shot mix may give the Nuggets’ soft defensive underbelly a free pass.
Matchup history won’t tell us much here. Phoenix beat Denver twice in the season’s final two weeks, but both games came against Denver’s scrubs. The Nuggets won two early-season meetings, but those were before the Durant trade.
Conversely, the Suns are 8-0 with Durant, but two of those wins were against the Nuggets’ reserves, and only one of the others came against a team with a winning record. (Including the end of his Brooklyn tenure, Durant is an amazing 25-2 since Thanksgiving weekend.)
Finally, the other factor here is the two benches. I mean, yikes. Phoenix’s second group is a bit more stout than Denver’s, which has basically one trustworthy player (Bruce Brown), but the Suns are also a lot more likely to need it. Also, what do they do at small forward? Torrey Craig has struggled, to put it mildly; Josh Okogie’s manic energy has been a huge lift but will be left open on the perimeter. Terrence Ross? Damion Lee? Check, please.
An injury to any of the other nine starters will tilt the series because the drop-offs are that severe. Part of the reason the on-off data is so severe for Jokić is that Denver’s bench really is that bad. Zeke Nnaji appeared to somewhat stabilize the backup center situation; can Reggie Jackson do the same at backup point guard?
It’s a close call, but I like Denver’s starting five more than Phoenix’s, even with Durant, and I worry a bit more about the Suns’ vets making it through a seven-game series. Add in a mile-high home court for the rubber match and I’ll take Denver. Pick: Nuggets in seven.
(2) Memphis (+6.1) vs. (6) Golden State (+6.7): This isn’t your typical 2 vs. 6. The Warriors at full strength are a different team from the one that took the court for most of the season and scratched out 45 wins on the strength of an 8-2 finish against zombies. And the Grizzlies, of course, are playing a series without either of their two rotation centers, instead relying on limited grinder Xavier Tillman Jr. and then heavy doses of Jackson at the five.
All that puts this closer to a toss-up than the regular-season records would indicate. And the Warriors have done this before, beating Memphis in six games last year en route to the championship.
But this year isn’t last year, and even in their good moments the Warriors have never looked like the juggernaut from a year ago. Here’s the thing I can’t escape: Memphis played Golden State twice after Adams and Clarke went down. The Warriors had their main guys, other than Wiggins, in both games, and Memphis beat the tar out of them anyway, 131-110 and 133-119. Ja Morant didn’t play a second in either game.
If you’re going to play a team without your best centers, the Warriors are the ones you want to play. They are going to have a hard time putting fouls on Jackson because they were last in the league at drawing fouls. They aren’t going to mash small-ball lineups because they don’t have any low-post players. They were able to hurt the Grizzlies on the offensive glass in the playoffs last year and may be able to do so again with Kevon Looney, but in the big picture, this is probably a much better matchup for the Grizzlies than a team that can smash mouth them. The Warriors aren’t going to drag Memphis in the mud because they like to play just as fast, and their high turnover rate is exactly what Memphis needs to get out in transition.
Between that and betting on Golden State to win at least one road game, I’m considerably less confident in the Warriors here than some others seem to be. Memphis has its own issues, especially in terms of half-court offense and general shooting, and I expect the frenetic pace of this series to somewhat disguise how much trouble everyone is having scoring. But between the recent matchups and that the Warriors have not looked like their 2021-22 selves for one second this season, I think Memphis survives. Pick: Grizzlies in seven.
Conference finals
(1) Denver (+9.6) vs. (2) Memphis (+6.1): That high-pitched whimpering sound you hear is coming from all the network executives who thought they were getting Phoenix-Golden State. I love watching both these teams, but this series might end up on tape delay on TruTV2.
In all seriousness, it would be a tremendous accomplishment for Memphis to reach the conference finals in a year when it lost two key big men to season-ending injuries and had all the drama surrounding Morant. It would be darn near miraculous for the Grizzlies to get any further. Regardless of whether it is Phoenix or Denver, I would expect the Grizzlies’ opponent to have a significant advantage.
Obviously, Denver presents particular problems because Jokić can put fouls on the Grizzlies’ short-handed big man rotation and force them to play bigger lineups even when they’d prefer to go small. The Nuggets’ lack of depth looms as an issue in any series, but if they can keep their starting five on the floor, they might be able to overwhelm the Grizzlies. Overall, this series looms as somewhat anticlimactic after a great second round, because whoever advances from the Denver-Phoenix side should be a big favorite. Pick: Nuggets in five.
(1) Milwaukee (+10.9) vs. (2) Boston (+9.9): Yeah, so … the Bucks are really good. You might look at them and think they’re a slightly fraudulent 58-win team because of their lame point differential (+3.5, fifth in the league), but the numbers say something else about the playoff Bucks.
Milwaukee had its best lineups muddied by secondary players who won’t be a factor in the postseason. Khris Middleton only played 33 games while working his way back from injury; Joe Ingles did the same and played 46; Crowder saw only 18 games in a Bucks uniform. As a result, the Bucks have the best PLANINIC score of any team.
And yet … I don’t love this matchup for them, especially if Robert Williams can play. Horford historically has done a pretty good job against Antetokounmpo, and the head-to-head history is not so great for the Bucks: They lost to Boston by 41 and 21 points this season in games where they had most of their A team, and couldn’t score against the Celtics in last year’s playoffs. That series was deceptively “close” because it went seven games, but Milwaukee was outscored by 72 points.
Even the one Milwaukee victory against Boston this season feels underwhelming: Boston started Sam Hauser and Mike Muscala, and the Bucks still needed overtime to win.
The Bucks have more weapons than they did in that series a year ago, with Middleton, Ingles and Crowder; Milwaukee was giving big minutes to Wes Matthews and George Hill. Lopez is a year out from back surgery and looks awesome after struggling to score in the 2022 postseason. It’s still Team Giannis in the big picture, but the supporting cast looks considerably better this time around.
Boston can make the same argument that it has a better team than a year ago after adding Malcolm Brogdon and (hopefully) nursing Williams back to health. The Celtics also have torched the Bucks from the 3-point line, both in last season’s playoffs (110 makes in seven games, nearly doubling Milwaukee’s total) and again in the three meetings this season (43.9 percent on 44 hoists per game).
Since this series is likely the de facto NBA Finals, it’s a huge one. And I think it comes down to Williams’ health. The Celtics are probably a big man short against this team if Williams isn’t available, but he looked good in the final weeks of the season. The Celtics, despite their depth of talent, can get too slow on offense late in games and too dependent on Tatum hero ball, and they’re probably too small against a huge Bucks team without Williams.
But again, they beat Milwaukee last year with Williams only playing three games. I think Milwaukee might be a better team, in a global sense, but head-to-head, this matchup seems to favor Boston. Pick: Celtics in seven.
NBA Finals
(2) Boston (+9.9) vs. (1) Denver (+9.6)
If we’re going to get Jokić in the NBA Finals, I’d much prefer we get him against Joel Embiid, or failing that, at least against Giannis.
But that’s not what we’re getting. This one will be more of a contrast in styles, matching the Nuggets’ perimeter defenders against Tatum and Jaylen Brown, while the Celtics keep scheming ways to force switches and attack Jokić. At some level, it will be a rerun of the Phoenix series for Denver.
Except in this case, the Nuggets also have to go against Boston’s defense. The Celtics held Jokić to a season-low three assists in the first meeting between these teams; their perimeter defenders are good enough to hold their own on all the cuts and slashes that burn other defenses, and they have a rim protector in Williams to clean things up. Boston finished third in defensive efficiency in the regular season; significantly, given Jokić’s offensive rebound prowess, they were also No. 1 in defensive rebound rate.
Bigger picture, the East was significantly better than the West all season, especially at the top. One can make a credible argument that the three strongest title threats are all in the East. I don’t know if this is going to be the finals matchup — a lot of water can go under the bridge between now and June — but I feel pretty strongly that the representative from the East should be a heavy favorite, regardless of opponent.
Boston is a tricky title pick because Tatum isn’t quite on the level of the league’s superduperstars, but the Celtics have a nine-deep rotation for the playoffs with positional versatility and few weaknesses. They match up really well against the one team they definitely need to beat (Milwaukee), and they would have home-court advantage against every other opponent. I would take the field over any individual team, especially given how tight the top three in the East are, but if forced to pick, I’ll take Boston to win it all. Pick: Celtics in six.
(Illustration: Samuel Richardson / The Athletic; photos: Kevin C. Cox / Getty Images; Bill Streicher / USA Today)
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