The Knicks are back in the playoffs and back in the 4-vs.-5 opening-round series as the lower seed two years after they were the fourth seed in their unexpected 2020-21 appearance in Tom Thibodeau’s first season as their head coach.
In his first career postseason experience in that opening-round series two years ago, All-Star forward Julius Randle was swarmed and flustered by the Hawks in an eye-opening five-game elimination.
Randle’s availability remains a question mark entering the series opener Saturday in Cleveland due to a sprained ankle.
His supporting cast is far better this time around, however, with the additions of Jalen Brunson and Josh Hart, the health of Mitchell Robinson, the experience gained by RJ Barrett and others, and the internal improvement and impact of homegrown players such as Immanuel Quickley and Quentin Grimes.
The Post’s Peter Botte breaks down the key matchups that will decide whether the Knicks can get by former trade target Donovan Mitchell and the Cavaliers — and advance to the second round for the first time since 2013:
Knicks’ 3-point shooting vs. Cavaliers’ 3-point defense
The Cavaliers were the top team in the league this year in overall defensive rating and fewest points allowed per game (106.9), but opponents shot 36.8 percent on 3-point attempts against them, which ranked 23rd overall.
The Knicks upped their volume of 3-point tries to eighth in the league, and they connected on nearly half (17-for-36) of their long-range shots in their win at Cleveland two weeks ago, including seven makes by Jalen Brunson in a 48-point eruption.
Isaac Okoro, the Cavaliers’ best perimeter defender, could be a difference maker if he returns from a sore left knee to play for the first time since March 26.
Edge: Even
Cavaliers’ 3-points shooting vs. Knicks’ 3-point defense
Expanded roles for Quentin Grimes and Immanuel Quickley — and to a lesser degree, Deuce McBride — helped the Knicks bounce back from a few disastrous early efforts guarding the 3-point arc, and they finished the season a respectable 12th in the league in that category.
The Cavaliers’ highest volume outside shooters are Donovan Mitchell (9.3 attempts per game), Darius Garland (6.0) and Caris LeVert (4.4), and they shot 36.7 percent as a team.
Edge: Cavaliers
Rebounding
Mitchell Robinson led the NBA in offensive rebounding among qualifying players with 4.5 per appearance, and Julius Randle’s 10.0 boards per game overall helped the Knicks finish tied for second on the glass with an average of 46.6 per game.
The midseason addition of Josh Hart also added 7.0 per game off the bench.
Cleveland starts dual 6-foot-11 bigs Jarrett Allen and Evan Mobley, but finished 25th in rebounding, with 41.1 on average.
Edge: Knicks
Drawing fouls and shooting free throws
The Knicks attempted the third-most freebies in the league (25.5), with Randle, Brunson and RJ Barrett all above five tries per game.
They connected on just 75.5 percent, though, good for 22nd in the league, with even Quickley slipping to 82 percent after hitting 88.5 percent from the stripe his first two seasons.
Mitchell and Garland average around 10 attempts between them, while shooting a combined 86.5 percent.
Edge: Cavaliers
Knicks’ ability to get paint points vs. Cavaliers’ interior defense
Led largely by Robinson’s offensive rebounding, the Knicks’ 16.2 second-chance points per game ranked third in the league, although they finished in the middle of the pack (15th) in paint points.
Barrett is at his best when he’s attacking the rim, and Brunson and Quickley have proven able to score near the rim with floaters and short jumpers.
Mobley (1.5) and Allen (1.2) both blocked more than one shot per appearance.
Edge: Even
Cavaliers’ ability to get paint points vs. Knicks’ interior defense
The Knicks missed Robinson’s inside presence when he was sidelined for several weeks following January thumb surgery, and he finished sixth in the league with 1.8 blocks per game.
Backup center Isaiah Hartenstein also has contributed defensively in the second half.
The Cavaliers were a few notches above the Knicks (12th) in paint points with 52.7 per game.
Edge: Knicks
In transition
The Knicks tied for 25th in steals with just 6.4 per game, and they were 15th again in transition points. Mitchell noted recently that the Knicks seemed to play “faster” and less in half-court sets with Randle replaced by Obi Toppin in the lineup late in the season. Hart also likes to push the ball whenever in the game. The Cavaliers were 24th in the league in transition points with just fewer than 20 per game.
Edge: Knicks
Depth/bench
Much of this category for the Knicks depends on Randle’s availability, but their four-man second-unit — largely Quickley, a viable Sixth Man candidate, and most recently, Toppin — have filled in effectively all season.
Hart’s arrival in February gave them versatile dimensions they didn’t have previously, and Hartenstein has improved as the season has gone on.
Cleveland’s primary depth players — namely Okoro, LeVert and Cedi Osman — also are solid contributors.
Edge: Knicks
Coaching
Clearly, factions of fans believe Tom Thibodeau is too stubborn with his rotations and heavy minutes, but his decision to bench high-priced veterans Evan Fournier, Derrick Rose and since-traded Cam Reddish in November and December resulted in a 37-22 finish to secure his second playoff berth in three seasons.
Cleveland’s J.B. Bickerstaff has taken a 22-win team in 2021 to 44 and 51 wins the past two seasons.
Edge: Even
Intangibles
The Cavaliers boast the player the Knicks failed to obtain last summer in the 26-year-old Mitchell, the Westchester County product who said of motivation to face his hometown team that he “wouldn’t want it any other way.”
The Knicks need the Garden to rock like the 1990s. They also will need to grab at least one win at Rocket Mortgage FieldHouse to advance, and their 24-17 road mark was their best record away from MSG since 1996-97.
Edge: Knicks
Predictions
Peter Botte
Win or lose, the deeper Knicks will be far more competitive than they were against the Hawks two years ago.
As long as Julius Randle is back alongside Jalen Brunson by Game 2, the Knicks’ road success this season will help them win the one or two they’ll need in Cleveland to advance.
Knicks in 7
Zach Braziller
A healthy Randle would’ve changed this, perhaps enabling the Knicks to steal one of the first two games in Cleveland. But he won’t be himself early in this series, and the Knicks will be fighting an uphill battle the entire way.
The best player — Donovan Mitchell — is the difference in a memorable seven-game battle.
Cavaliers in 7
Mike Vaccaro
If the Knicks were 100 percent healthy, this pick would be Knicks in six.
But since their two best players, Brunson and Randle, will both be various stages of hobbled, it’s hard to see how they can squeeze out four wins.
It’ll be a fun series though.
Cavaliers in 7
Breaking down Knicks-Cavaliers series, plus predictions - New York Post
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