Boom! It was a nice little week for my NFL Projection Model as we bounced back nicely the last two weeks after we fell into a bit of a rut. Weeks 6-8 were rough as the model lost 6.05 units in that time, but we bounced back in a big way the last two weeks by winning 3.80 units. If we stack a few more weeks like the last two together, we will set ourselves up nicely for the playoff run. We now sit at a four percent return for the season thanks to the Broncos securing an outright victory over the Bills on Monday Night Football.
Last week’s record: 4-1, +2.90 units
Season record: 28-25, +2.25 units, +4.0% ROI
Six plays this week, so it is a decent size card. I’m not sure if I will add to this later in the week, but you never know how injury reports will look in the second half of the NFL season, so stay tuned. As always, good luck to us!
NFL Week 11 Best Bets
Los Angeles Chargers at Green Bay Packers under 44 (-110)
Be sure to shop around here as a book or two are hanging 44.5, but I still like this bet at 44 and will grade at this price. Justin Herbert, for some reason unknown to me, has struggled against Cover-3 this season. You can guess what the Packers defense base defense is…that’s right, Cover-3. Herbert can turn into Superman at any moment but this matchup for the Packers defense is enough for me to think this game could end up in the low 40s.
Worst line to bet: Under 44 (-110)
Jacksonville Jaguars -6.5 (-110) vs. Tennessee Titans
Jacksonville has a Top-10 rush defense, and relying on Will Levis’ arm on the road isn’t a recipe for success. Yes, Jacksonville is coming off a horrible display of football against the 49ers, but the Titans are nowhere near San Francisco. I think the market has adjusted a little too much here. I’m not sure whether that’s because of Jacksonville’s performance last week or overrating Levis’ first few games as a starter. Either way, getting Trevor Lawrence at home against a rookie quarterback excites me.
Worst line to bet: Jaguars -6.5 (-115)
Seattle Seahawks at Los Angeles Rams over 46 (-110)
I think both quarterbacks could feast in this one. Geno Smith struggles against man defense, while the Rams run zone defense at the fifth-highest rate in the league. On the other side of the ball, Matthew Stafford is a top 5 quarterback against zone coverage and Cover-3, which Seattle happens to run both at a top 3 rate. My only worry is Stafford and his thumb injury, as that could slow things down, but I’m confident he’s close enough to 100 percent that he can beat up on Seattle’s zone defense.
Worst line to bet: Over 46.5 (-115)
Kansas City Chiefs -2.5 (-110) vs. Philadelphia Eagles
Philadelphia Eagles at Kansas City Chiefs over 45.5 (-110) (to win 0.5 units)
I’m reducing risk on the over because I don’t want to expose myself too much on one game. As for the spread bet, I like to live by a general rule of thumb: when Patrick Mahomes is favored by less than a field goal, it’s an auto-bet. Now, I wouldn’t blindly bet him, though. I imagine his ATS record as 2.5 favorite or better is quite good, and I also favor the Chiefs by just over a field goal here. So that’s a no-brainer for me. As for betting over, both offenses match up well with the opposing defense. The Eagles like to run a lot of Cover-1 coverage, and Mahomes destroys Cover-1 (first in EPA/Dropback per TruMedia). As for the Eagles offense, the Chiefs like to play a heavy-dose of Cover-2 relative to league average, and Jalen Hurts is a top 8 quarterback against Cover-2 per EPA/Dropback and success rate. Remember the Super Bowl? Let’s have that same result.
Worst line to bet: Chiefs -2.5 (-115) and Over 46 (-110)
Cleveland Browns -4 (-110) vs. Pittsburgh Steelers
I’m aware that the Steelers have this strange ability to win games they have no business winning — rewind when these teams met in Week 2 — but the trend stops this week. The Browns lead the NFL in percentage of defensive snaps in a Cover-1 defense, and Kenny Pickett is dead last in EPA/Dropback against Cover-1 this year. I do have worries about Deshaun Watson’s health and his ability to play the quarterback position, but my model is really low on him regardless. If Watson can not turn the ball over like he did earlier in the season, the Browns should have a favorable matchup to cruise to victory.
Worst line to bet: Browns -4 (-110)
Update: Deshaun Watson is out for the year. This is no longer a best bet.
(Photo of Trevor Lawrence: Mike Carlson / Getty Images)
NFL Week 11 Best Bets: Taking the Jaguars and Chiefs against the spread - The Athletic
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