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Monday, October 30, 2023

NFL Week 9 early odds: Bengals slight favorites vs. Bills, Dolphins underdogs in Germany vs. Chiefs - CBS Sports

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Week 8 in the NFL was a doozy. We saw the defending Super Bowl champions fall to a division rival, the Panthers earn their first win of the year and a number of wild covers, including in Arizona where the Cardinals kept inside the number late. Not only that but there were several key injuries that will be worth monitoring as we now look forward to Week 9. 

While the Lions and Raiders still have their "Monday Night Football" showdown to wrap up Week 8, let's take our first glimpse of all the Week 9 matchups and get our impression on the early lines to see if there is anything they can tell us about who the oddsmakers initially see coming out on top.

Note: Denver, Detroit, San Francisco, and Jacksonville are all on bye in Week 9.

Week 9 early odds

(All lines via SportsLine consensus odds; all games on Sunday unless noted)

Game Early line Early total Early moneyline

Titans at Steelers (Thursday)

Steelers -2.5

36.5

Titans +125, Steelers -149

Dolphins at Chiefs (in Germany)

Chiefs -2.5

50.5

Dolphins +116, Chiefs -138

Cardinals at Browns

Browns -7.5

40

Cardinals +277, -351

Bears at Saints

Saints -6.5

41.5

Bears +220, Saints -272

Rams at Packers

Packers -2

41

Rams +106, Packers -126

Vikings at Falcons

Falcons -4

38

Vikings +153, Falcons -182

Seahawks at Ravens

Ravens -5.5 

43

Seahawks +189, Ravens -232

Commanders at Patriots

Patriots -2.5 

40

Commanders +114, Patriots -136

Buccaneers at Texans

Texans -2.5

38.5

Buccaneers +117, Texans -138

Colts at Panthers

Colts -2.5

45

Colts -147, Panthers +124

Cowboys at Eagles

Eagles -3

46.5

Cowboys +136, Eagles -161

Giants at Raiders

Raiders -3.5

38.5

Giants +158, Raiders -188

Bills at Bengals

Bengals -2

47.5

Bills +106, Bengals -126

Chargers at Jets Chargers -2 42.5 Chargers -131, Jets +111

Notable movement, trends

Titans at Steelers (Thursday)

One of the biggest surprises of Week 8 was the play from Will Levis, who got the start for Tennessee in place of the injured Ryan Tannehill. The rookie started and threw four touchdowns in his debut to go along with 238 yards as the Titans defeated the Falcons. While one team is trending in a positive direction at quarterback, the Steelers are going in the opposite direction with Kenny Pickett's status in question after leaving Sunday's loss due to a rib injury. That development has seen the spread dip from Steelers -3 to Steelers -2.5. This season, the Titans are 1-2 ATS on the road while the Steelers are 2-2 ATS at home. Under Mike Tomlin, Pittsburgh has covered 57% of its games following a loss. 

Dolphins at Chiefs (in Germany)

This potential AFC Championship preview has an international wrinkle to it with this being the first-ever regular-season game played in Germany. Miami is coming off a home win against the Patriots, while the Chiefs were upset on the road against the Broncos. Kansas City is a slight 2.5-point favorite on this neutral site. Each team has been strong against the number this season with Miami tied for a league-best 6-2 ATS record while the Chiefs are 5-3 ATS. Since Patrick Mahomes became the full-time starter in 2018, K.C. has covered 58% of its games following a loss with an average margin of victory sitting at 9.7 points. This total is also the highest of the Week 9 slate. For the Dolphins, the Over is 5-3 on the year, but just 2-6 for the Chiefs.   

Cardinals at Browns

The Cardinals were able to sneak through the backdoor and cover, thanks to a late field goal after a successful onside kick in the fourth quarter of their loss to the Ravens. Meanwhile, the Browns gave up the lead (and failed to cover) after allowing the Seahawks to score the go-ahead touchdown with 38 seconds left in regulation of their Week 8 matchup. The quarterback situations for both of these teams will be worth watching this week. P.J. Walker started for the injured Deshaun Watson and it remains to be seen if he plays in this game. As for the Cardinals, head coach Jonathan Gannon already announced that Joshua Dobbs will start over Kyler Murray, despite the quarterback practicing fully all last week. While this is projected to be one of the lower-scoring games for the week, the Over is a combined 9-6 between these teams this season. The Browns are also 3-1 ATS at home while the Cardinals are 1-3 ATS on the road. 

Bears at Saints

Chicago couldn't muster much offensively in its Week 8 loss to the Chargers on Sunday night, managing just 13 points as rookie Tyson Bagent tossed two interceptions. The status of Justin Fields (right thumb) will be worth watching to see if he can get on the practice field this week. If the QB situation stays as is for the Bears, they are nearly a touchdown underdog as they are set to travel to New Orleans to face a Saints team that posted 38 points in a win over the Colts. The Bears are 1-3 ATS on the road this season, but New Orleans has yet to record an ATS win at Caesars Superdome, going 0-3 ATS so far this year. The Saints are also 1-5-1 ATS as a favorite this season, so they may be hard to trust even against this Chicago team.  

Rams at Packers

All eyes are on Matthew Stafford after the Rams quarterback exited Sunday's blowout loss to the Cowboys due to an injury to his right thumb. If that injury prevents him from playing in Week 9, that could move the number toward the Packers, who are already a 2-point favorite. That said, Green Bay is coming off a loss where it managed just 10 points and Jordan Love continues to be inefficient passing the football (58.5 completion percentage in Week 8). The total for this game is set at 41 and the Under is a combined 9-6 between these teams this season. The Packers are also 1-2 ATS at Lambeau Field this season.

Buccaneers at Texans

The Bucs and Texans were both on the losing end of their games in Week 8. Tampa Bay does have the rest advantage after playing on Thursday, but Houston will be at NRG Stadium where it is 2-1 ATS on the year. While you'd think being on the road would be a disadvantage, the Buccaneers are a perfect 3-0 ATS on the road this season, which includes a backdoor cover last week in Buffalo. This line has moved a half-point from Texans -2 to Texans -2.5, so it could be interesting if the Bucs eventually get a full field goal in their pocket. Meanwhile, the Under is a combined 11-3 between these teams this season. 

Commanders at Patriots

Both of these teams fell to division rivals on Sunday and it'll be interesting to see what these clubs look like following Tuesday's trade deadline. New England has since moved to a 2.5-point favorite at home where they are 2-2 ATS. As for the Commanders, they are 2-2 ATS on the road. In the post-Tom Brady era (since 2020), the Patriots are 14-14-1 ATS following a loss. The 40-point total is one of the lowest of the Week 9 slate. Between these two, the Under is 9-7. 

Vikings at Falcons

The Vikings appear to have lost starting quarterback Kirk Cousins for the rest of the season after reportedly suffering a torn Achilles in the Week 8 win over Green Bay. If that ultimately proves to be the case, Jaren Hall is in line to start for Minnesota as it heads to Atlanta to face a Falcons team that could have some quarterback issues of their own. Desmond Ridder sat out the second half of Sunday's loss to Tennessee after he was checked out for a concussion. That gave way to backup Taylor Heinicke to get some reps and it remains to be seen who will start for the Falcons in Week 9. This season, Atlanta is 1-3 ATS at home. 

Seahawks at Ravens

One of the more underrated games of the week happens in Baltimore between the Ravens and Seahawks. Lamar Jackson's club has won three straight games heading into Sunday while Seattle has won back-to-back games and is 5-2 on the year. Baltimore is a 5.5-point favorite and has been one of the better bets this season as it owns a 5-3 ATS record. Seattle has covered two of its three road games this season, so this should prove to be a good matchup between two division leaders. 

Colts at Panthers

The Frank Reich revenge game! The Panthers head coach will take on his former team at Carolina on Sunday after he was able to pick up his first win of the year against Houston in Week 8. Despite losing three straight, Indy has been able to put up points with Gardner Minshew under center, but giveaways have been the biggest problem for the Colts offense. While that could always pop up, the Panthers are tied for the second-fewest takeaways in the league this season. They also could be without some key pieces in this game depending on how the trade deadline unfolds on Tuesday. Coming into Week 9, Indy is 2-1 ATS on the road and the Over has hit in six of its eight games. 

Cowboys at Eagles

A classic NFC East showdown between the Cowboys and Eagles is due up in Week 9. Both NFC East squads were able to come out on the winning end on Sunday, but it was much easier sledding for Dallas, who blew out the Rams at home. As for the Philly, they needed a 21-point fourth quarter to rally past the Commanders. This is the first matchup of the season between the Cowboys and Eagles and the two sides split the season series a year ago. Philly is currently a field goal favorite and are 1-1-1 ATS at Lincoln Financial Field this season. Dallas is 2-2 ATS on the road. 

Giants at Raiders

New York could get the return of Daniel Jones this week after the Giants quarterback has been cleared by doctors. Depending on how Las Vegas' game with the Lions on Monday night unfolds, that could change the line after it currently sits at Raiders -3.5. New York is 1-3 ATS on the road this season, while the Raiders are 2-1 ATS at Allegiant Stadium.

Bills at Bengals

This could very well be an AFC Championship preview, especially with the way Cincinnati seems to be turning around its season. The Bengals are above .500 for the first time this season after going to San Francisco and upsetting the 49ers on Sunday. Joe Burrow looks back to his old self after dealing with a calf injury to start to year, which completely changes the narrative around the Bengals going forward. Meanwhile, they face a Bills team that is 5-3 on the year but has looked sluggish in recent weeks, so this could be a tough road challenge for them. On the road, the Bills are 1-2 ATS. 

Chargers at Jets

The Chargers beat up on the Bears on Sunday night, but Justin Herbert will face a much tougher defense in the Jets on the road next Monday. New York is a gritty 4-3 on the season after beating the Giants in Week 8 and are 4-2-1 ATS on the year. On the road this year, L.A. is 1-2 ATS. The Under is also 9-6 between these teams this season. 

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NFL Week 9 early odds: Bengals slight favorites vs. Bills, Dolphins underdogs in Germany vs. Chiefs - CBS Sports
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