The Athletic has live coverage of Lions vs. Chiefs in the NFL Week 1 opener.
My predictions this season should have an asterisk.
I had the chance to watch the Los Angeles Chargers practice for two days in Costa Mesa, Calif., for a story I was working on during training camp.
I have seen Justin Herbert plenty of times at live games, but never at two days of practice. I don’t know if he’s extra confident this year because of new coordinator Kellen Moore, his best offensive line in years and/or a rejuvenated Keenan Allen, but throw after throw was nearly perfect. Short, medium, deep, velocity, ball placement …
It’s impossible to watch that, with the ocean breeze gently blowing in your face on a hot day, and not think this is the Chargers’ year. Not to mention they have a healthy, improved and motivated defense after last season’s playoff collapse to the Jacksonville Jaguars.
I didn’t totally lose my mind and pick the Chargers to win the Super Bowl (I have the Philadelphia Eagles over the Miami Dolphins). Brandon Staley as the head coach is still a wild card. But I think Herbert wins MVP (he is 11-to-1) and the Chargers top their season over/under of 9.5 wins.
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The Kansas City Chiefs are still great, but that’s a boring Super Bowl pick with little reward. I went with the Dolphins in the AFC because I think the addition of defensive coordinator Vic Fangio will unleash an underrated pass rush, while the passing game of Tua Tagovailoa, Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle is still being slept on a little bit.
I looked back at my season-total predictions, and I wouldn’t change much. The anti-Aaron Rodgers of under on the New York Jets at 9.5 wins (brutal schedule) and over on the Green Bay Packers at 7.5 wins (good offensive line, underrated defense) are still two of my six favorites.
Read: Jalen Hurts, Bijan Robinson and creamsicles highlight our NFL staff poll
The only two of the 32 season picks I would change — I would now go under on the Los Angeles Rams and Tennessee Titans. I was not impressed with either team this camp or preseason, and I could easily see Aaron Donald and Derrick Henry on different teams come playoff time. I need to find some odds on that.
On to the games and getting off to a 5-0 start on best bets …
All odds are from BetMGM and are locked when the pick was made. Click here for live odds.
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The Chiefs will be without defensive tackle Chris Jones (holdout), while tight end Travis Kelce should be affected at least a little bit by his recent knee injury. That’s why this number has come down two points. While there is no doubt that fiery Dan Campbell will have his team bouncing off the walls coming out of the locker room, I think there is a big coaching edge with Andy Reid having extra time to prepare. (He is 7-3 against the spread in Week 1 with the Chiefs.) And did I mention that Patrick Mahomes said this is his best offensive line ever?
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The Lions, meanwhile, blitz a lot (the seventh-highest rate league-wide in 2022 at 33.5 percent), and Mahomes last season threw an NFL-high 17 touchdown passes against added pressure, the most he’s ever had in a single season.
The pick: CHIEFS
I think the Panthers are interesting, but based on what I saw from Bryce Young this preseason there might be a significant learning curve. Not to mention the Brian Burns contract dispute hanging over the team’s heads — though Burns did practice Wednesday. Miles Sanders will have a huge season, though, and they can hang within three of the Falcons. The Falcons allowed a first down on 72.9 percent of opponent drives last season, the fourth-highest rate in the NFL.
The pick: PANTHERS
There has been a lot of hype about new offensive coordinator Todd Monken, rookie receiver Zay Flowers and how things are going to really open up for Lamar Jackson in the passing game. That all may be true, but in Week 1, I don’t want to lay 10 points against a not-terrible team playing for a new head coach in DeMeco Ryans. Especially with the Ravens having some cornerback issues. Since 2005, double-digit favorites in openers are 5-10 against the spread.
The pick: TEXANS
Joe Burrow and his bad calf are supposed to be out there on the field, and even a healthy Burrow has struggled against the Browns in the past. Some teams just have your number. I could see picking the Browns here if you had any idea how Deshaun Watson is going to play, but no one does after a lackluster return last season. Cleveland’s first coach-general manager combo to make it to Year 4 in 15 years thinks it has the team built around him to contend.
The Bengals win thanks to a healthy Joe Mixon on offense and an improved run defense that at least contains Nick Chubb.
The pick: BENGALS
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Trap line. Shouldn’t a team that had a nice playoff run and has a lot of buzz open as bigger than a 5-point favorite over a team in shambles? The Colts basically told their healthy star running back to take a seat the first four weeks, and rookie Anthony Richardson didn’t look great throwing the ball in the preseason. But the Colts are at home for a new coach in Shane Steichen, and their defense is not bad.
I also still look at the Jaguars as a team that was 4-8 at one point last season and has question marks on the offensive and defensive lines. Give me the points.
The pick: COLTS
I think the Buccaneers are a sneaky pick in the Caleb Williams/Drake Maye sweepstakes. They’re not trying to win this season. They’re starting Baker Mayfield at quarterback. The Vikings, meanwhile, are not going to win all the last-minute thrillers they did last season. They have a much worse run attack and pass rush. But they still have a nice home-field advantage and the much better quarterback and win by more than a touchdown here. And did we mention that T.J. Hockenson will have more catches than any tight end not named Travis Kelce?
The pick: VIKINGS
Derrick Henry of the Dallas Cowboys has a nice ring to it. … Mike Vrabel has done a nice job of keeping things together, but it feels like this team is headed for a downturn, and a bad offensive line will only grease the skids.
The Saints, meanwhile, come into the season with some optimism, thanks to the addition of Derek Carr, a talented receiving corps and a strong run game once Alvin Kamara is back from suspension in Week 4. Jamaal Williams can handle the load behind a solid offensive line until then, and although the Saints defense has no depth, its starting 11 is pretty solid. Take the better team at home.
The pick: SAINTS
There is a lot of buzz around Kenny Pickett, but I haven’t seen anything to indicate that he is anything more than a solid starter. The 49ers defense is great enough to shut down Pickett and the Steelers run game without Nick Bosa, but now that he has signed, this spread about to go over the three-point threshold. And that’s cool. The 49ers receivers will carry the load as the Steelers will game plan to stop Christian McCaffrey. The 49ers led the NFL with an average of 6.6 yards after the catch last season, the fifth consecutive season San Francisco has been No. 1 in that category. The Steelers defense allowed 5.1 YAC per reception last season (17th in NFL).
The pick: 49ERS
You have to respect the Cardinals’ commitment to tanking for Caleb Williams. They even cut backup quarterback Colt McCoy because he has stolen wins in the past. Not this year, buddy. Washington coach Ron Rivera doesn’t inspire a lot of confidence, but the Commanders might be on to something with offensive coordinator Eric Bieniemy’s up-tempo approach. Sam Howell could be a breakout candidate because of it. If not … Washington still has a very good defensive line, and fantasy breakout star Jahan Dotson will feast against a terrible Arizona secondary, so lay the 7.
The pick: COMMANDERS
Justin Fields sure is exciting … but the loss of tackle Teven Jenkins is a big one. And defensively, the Bears didn’t do much to improve their pass rush. Or their run defense. Factor in the Packers’ really good offensive line and this is a perfect opening game for new quarterback Jordan Love. He will have time to look downfield, and that’s when he is not handing off to Aaron Jones and AJ Dillon and watching them get 5 yards a pop. It is on the road, which is why I didn’t include it in my top five picks … which makes this one a lock.
The pick: PACKERS
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The Eagles should be better than they were last season, given Jalen Hurts having more experience and a successful offseason plugging holes through free agency and the draft. Their defensive line has a big edge here against a patchwork Patriots offensive line, and I think Jalen Carter is going to win Defensive Rookie of the Year honors. Stubborn people will try to find reasons to bet Bill Belichick as a home underdog — he is chasing Don Shula after all — but he has never fared well against running quarterbacks.
The pick: EAGLES
It’s hard to know how good either team is, as all the positive things said at camp and after preseason games don’t mean much. Will Russell Wilson be a lot better under Sean Payton than he was last season? Will the Raiders defense not be terrible again? If you know the answer to those questions, you know which side to pick.
Chandler Jones is away from the Raiders after a social media tirade against his coach and general manager, and he won’t play Sunday. That’s a bigger loss than you think, as despite an uneven 2022 season, he was in great shape and was supposed to give rookie Tyree Wilson time to get fully healthy and grow into a larger role.
The pick: BRONCOS
Both these teams are going to have really strong seasons, and this one comes down to Dolphins cornerback Jalen Ramsey being out and Keenan Allen looking like a man possessed this training camp. I don’t see Justin Herbert having much trouble Sunday. Vic Fangio ran some form of man coverage on 38.5 percent of snaps during his final season with the Broncos in 2021, the second-highest rate in the NFL. Herbert, though, ranked fifth in the NFL in yards per attempt (8.1) and EPA per dropback (0.23) against man last season, per TruMedia, and threw for the second-most passing yards on such plays (1,317).
The pick: CHARGERS
The Rams were in trouble long before Cooper Kupp went off to visit hamstring specialists. They lost Ramsey and Bobby Wagner on defense, as well as underrated tackle Greg Gaines, safety Nick Scott and linebacker Leonard Floyd. This might be the year we see a player triple-teamed every play … poor Aaron Donald. (Maybe Caleb Williams stays in Los Angeles …) It’ll be a big day for Geno Smith and running backs Kenneth Walker III and Zach Charbonnet. And if you’re worried about the Seahawks defense missing injured Jamal Adams, it’s OK. They have big plans for Julian Love.
The pick: SEAHAWKS
Kellen Moore going to the Chargers doesn’t mean the Cowboys are going back to the stone ages — even with Mike McCarthy saying he wants to run the ball more and eliciting groans because of it. The Cowboys have too much offensive talent to not to be a contender, with Dak Prescott, Tony Pollard, CeeDee Lamb, underrated signing Brandin Cooks and a very good offensive line. That should result in a win here, as the Giants secondary is not very good. The Cowboys defense held Saquon Barkley to 120 yards on 25 carries combined in the two wins against the Giants last season, with 36 yards coming on one carry. Daniel Jones actually has a great opportunity to show that he was worth all that money.
The pick: COWBOYS
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I have the Jets winning less than 9.5 games because of a brutal schedule, but I actually have them winning this one. They split their two games with the Bills last season despite not having Rodgers, thanks to a defense that only gave up 37 points. And we have the Jets as high as eighth in our power rankings, though as Bo Wulf points out, there is a decent chance that “the offensive line never comes together and resents Robert Saleh’s continued scapegoating of them.”
The Bills, meanwhile, will be sorely missing pass rush rusher Von Miller. And their offensive line is already in trouble after the retirement of Brandon Shell and injury to Tommy Doyle. The Jets’ defensive front is no joke, and New York gets a win for their home fans.
The pick: JETS
Best bets: Chiefs over Lions, Colts over Jaguars, 49ers over Steelers, Chargers over Dolphins, Seahawks over Rams
Upset special (spread of at least 3 points): Give me the Panthers over the Falcons. Even with Young finding his way, Carolina may have a big quarterback edge.
Survivor Pool: Go with the Commanders, because there won’t be an opportunity to use them again this season. Or maybe ever. (You can actually pick against the Cardinals the first five weeks before you have to even think about it.)
Last season: 127-139-5 ATS, 26-27-3 on best bets.
— TruMedia research courtesy of NFL editor Jason Starrett
(Top photo of Justin Herbert: Katelyn Mulcahy / Getty Images)
“The Football 100,” the definitive ranking of the NFL’s best 100 players of all time, goes on sale this fall. Pre-order it here.
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