The 2023 NFL season is nearly here, and Week 1 will bring the regular-season debut for plenty of talented rookies. Three first-year quarterbacks -- Bryce Young, C.J. Stroud and Anthony Richardson -- have already been named their teams' starter right out of the gate, and there's still a chance Clayton Tune gets the call for Arizona. But it's not just the QBs; scan team depth charts, and you'll see plenty of 2023 NFL draft picks in line to start or see significant action early in the season.
We decided to give you an all-encompassing preview of the rookie class from NFL draft analysts Matt Miller and Jordan Reid and fantasy analyst Matt Bowen. We kicked it off with top Offensive and Defensive Rookie of the Year candidates, including their Caesars Sportsbook odds to win. Then we tackled 10 rookies who could dominate in fantasy football and five first-years who could make a sneaky big impact in 2023. We closed it out with some nuggets on the signal-callers and Mike Clay's projected rookie stat leaders.
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OROY | DROY | Fantasy picks
Sleepers | Quarterbacks | Projections
REID'S TOP OFFENSIVE ROOKIE OF THE YEAR CANDIDATES
Robinson became the first running back selected in the top 10 since Leonard Fournette (No. 4) and Christian McCaffrey (No. 8) during the 2017 draft, and his combination of versatility, strength and tackle-breaking ability could make him a superstar very early on in his career. He only had four carries (20 yards) during the preseason, but it's evident that he's going to be a key component of the Falcons' run-heavy offense. Robinson will play the Derrick Henry role in Arthur Smith's offense, and he will bring explosiveness and be a reliable option as a pass-catcher. Expect some big numbers in Year 1.
The Panthers wasted little time in naming the No. 1 overall pick as their starting quarterback. Young will be leaned on to rebuild the Panthers' passing game, which ranked 29th in yards per game (176.2) in 2022. Young has the ability to make plays within the confines of the pocket, but he also excels outside of it, with the elusiveness to create. With plenty of new additions on offense in Carolina, he has the chance to make an immediate impact. Quarterbacks have won Offensive Rookie of the Year twice in the past four years (Justin Herbert and Kyler Murray).
Coach DeMeco Ryans officially named Stroud as the Week 1 starter following Houston's preseason finale against the Saints, and the rookie signal-caller will be tested quickly; The Texans face the Ravens and their talented defense to open the regular season. Stroud is a smooth and natural thrower, and his sudden read-and-react ability really stood out at Ohio State.
Addison will be the Vikings' complementary target to Justin Jefferson, filling the void left by Adam Thielen's departure. Thielen had 109 targets in 2022, so Addison should get plenty of touches right out of the gate. He shows the ability to separate and pick up yards after the catch, and I'm watching for Addison to excel with defenses primarily focused on limiting Jefferson.
One of the biggest surprises of the 2023 draft was the Lions taking Gibbs at No. 12 overall, but Detroit has a clear plan to incorporate him into the offense in multiple ways. Gibbs is the ultimate playmaker as a runner and pass-catcher. This offense ranked in the middle of the pack (14th) in rushes over 10 yards last season, but his big-play ability could push it toward the top in 2023. Gibbs will be a bit of a changeup from David Montgomery in the backfield.
MILLER'S TOP DEFENSIVE ROOKIE OF THE YEAR CANDIDATES
We've already seen the pass-rushing and run-stuffing traits in preseason play that made Anderson worthy of a big trade up to No. 3 overall in April. On a Ryans-coached defense, he will be asked to be the Texans' version of Nick Bosa, and that could result in double-digit sacks in his rookie season.
The Seattle defense saw fifth-rounder Riq Woolen grab six interceptions in his rookie season; Witherspoon could be the next Seattle defensive back to post big interception totals, as opposing offenses look to avoid Woolen, Quandre Diggs and the rest of the talented Seahawks secondary. Witherspoon -- the first cornerback drafted in 2023 -- picked off three passes at Illinois last year and has the elite instincts and reaction speed to immediately excel in the NFL.
Many NFL scouts believed Carter was the most talented prospect in the draft class, and many even believed he was the most talented defender on the 2021 Georgia defense that would eventually have seven players selected in the first round. His first-step quickness is almost unstoppable. If he gets enough starter reps -- the Eagles love to rotate defensive linemen -- he'll put up sack and tackle for loss numbers worthy of a DROY award.
0:52
Why Jalen Carter is turning heads in preseason
Tim McManus discusses how Jalen Carter has impressed his Eagles teammates during preseason.
McDonald and his spin move have arrived in the Big Apple. Throughout the preseason and training camp practices, he has been a master at setting up offensive tackles and then closing on the quarterback with speed. The Jets are desperate for that type of production off the edge, and he will see a ton of one-on-one opportunities in coach Robert Saleh's scheme. His 34 sacks in college show that McDonald can get to the QB, and we can expect more of it in the NFL.
The Lions drafted Campbell to be their Day 1 middle linebacker, and he has proven he can handle that assignment in training camp and the preseason. He is a three-down linebacker with the tools to impact the run and pass coverage and also get after the quarterback on blitzes. At Iowa last season, he had 126 tackles, 1 sack, 1 forced fumble and 2 interceptions. If Campbell can do that in the NFC North, he'll have new hardware for his trophy room.
BOWEN'S TOP ROOKIES FOR FANTASY FOOTBALL
An all-purpose playmaker who can produce in any game situation, Robinson steps into a volume role in Atlanta's run-heavy system. The downhill power and speed jump out here, along with his pass-catching ability from multiple alignments. Robinson has the upside of a top-three running back in all fantasy scoring formats.
With the juice to test the edges in the run game and the high-end receiving traits to create matchups from flexed alignments, Gibbs is a priority PPR target in Detroit's backfield share with David Montgomery. Lock him in as an upside RB2.
Addison will work opposite Jefferson in the Vikings' schemed passing game. He's a refined route runner with the separation ability to uncover at all three levels of the field, and he will have a high target volume. I see him producing steady WR3 numbers.
Richardson should be a coveted target in redraft leagues this season, thanks to his rare physical tools and dual-threat traits. There's top-12 upside here, and he could stack up rushing totals on designed carries each week in Shane Steichen's offense, with the run-pass option and play-action concepts to create defined reads for Richardson to distribute the ball as a passer, too.
1:28
What Anthony Richardson can do for the Colts' running game
Mina Kimes discusses Anthony Richardson's performance against the Eagles, and how he can be effective moving forward.
Smith-Njigba's rookie ceiling could be limited as the third receiver in Seattle behind DK Metcalf and Tyler Lockett, but I see enough volume for the Ohio State product to post WR3 numbers in deeper leagues. JSN has the lateral speed to separate and ball-carrier vision to produce after the catch.
A deeper league target, Johnston will see his value elevate if Keenan Allen or Mike Williams miss game time. He has third-level juice and the ability to get loose after the catch, which is a good fit for a Chargers offense that will show more vertical elements in the pass game this season with quarterback Justin Herbert. Take a shot here with a late-round pick.
Flowers can be a versatile player in Todd Monken's new offense, which will create more space for him in the pass game. He's a dynamic receiver with motion/movement ability to produce on manufactured touches. I'd take a late-round flier on the rookie and stash him on the bench, at least until we get a feel for his weekly usage in the game plan.
I like Kincaid in 12- or 14-team leagues because of his formation flexibility and how he might be used in Buffalo's high-scoring offense. Kincaid can align in traditional tight end sets or bump outside, and he can produce at all three levels of the route tree. He'll be a matchup piece in Ken Dorsey's system.
A prime target in superflex leagues as a QB2, Young has the pro-ready traits to produce as a rhythmic thrower in Frank Reich's offense. He's quick to read it out, with the movement traits to also create rushing production on scramble attempts.
I see deeper league value for Charbonnet as an insurance play behind starter Kenneth Walker III in Seattle. If the Seahawks get him on a downhill track as a north/south runner, where he can use his contact balance to shed tacklers, big chunk plays will come. And there's receiving ability here, too, with Charbonnet likely logging receptions on swings, screens and checkdowns.
MILLER'S UNDER-THE-RADAR ROOKIES TO WATCH
The Bills saw a weak wide receiver class in the draft and picked an elite slot target in Kincaid, even though he's technically a tight end. The early reviews have been positive during training camp and the preseason, and his role will only grow throughout the year as he gets more comfortable in the offense. He is built like George Kittle and can win from the slot or inline. Kincaid was the best route-running tight end in the draft class and will have a chance to become the No. 2 passing option for Josh Allen's Bills.
You might not expect fourth-round draft picks to have a major impact, but Johnson could be this year's Dameon Pierce as a Day 3 selection who ultimately leads his team in rushing. Johnson was the backup to Robinson at Texas, so he didn't get a ton of carries, but he's a three-down back with power at 6-foot-2, 223 pounds. He is also a fantastic pass-catcher and blocker in the backfield. In a crowded Chicago running back room, Johnson might not be the Week 1 starter, but he could easily be getting the most carries by midseason.
Watching the Patriots' preseason games, it has been hard to miss White making plays along the defensive line. The second-round pick out of Georgia Tech is a perfect match for the New England defense at 6-foot-5 and 290 pounds, possessing the movement traits of a former tight end. He will play both defensive end and defensive tackle for the Patriots. In an aging group, he should make an early impact not only in the base 3-4 defense but also in subpackage roles where he can rush the quarterback from the interior.
The leader of the 2022 Alabama secondary -- and arguably the entire defense -- fell to the Lions in the second round. The rest of the NFC North can't be happy about that after seeing how quickly he has acclimated to the NFL. Branch can line up at any spot in the secondary and excel, thanks to his instincts and awareness pre- and post-snap. The Lions added C.J. Gardner-Johnson in free agency, so immediate expectations might be low for Branch, but his talent is too good to keep on the bench.
No, Derrick Henry hasn't gone anywhere, but the Titans have found a spark in Spears. The former Tulane runner fell to the third round in the draft, but he averaged 6.8 yards per carry in college and posted 21 total touchdowns last season alone. The explosive, quick-cutting runs he showed at Tulane are working in the NFL, and Spears could become the lightning to Henry's thunder.
REID'S NOTES ON FIRST-YEAR QUARTERBACKS
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It's no secret that Young is among the top candidates for Offensive Rookie of the Year, and his poise under pressure is a major reason why he is getting preseason buzz. He is expected to be pressured a lot early on in Carolina, but Young was at his best when facing the blitz throughout his career in Tuscaloosa. He had an impressive ratio of 15 touchdowns to zero interceptions there and averaged 9.2 air yards per pass attempt while under duress -- higher than his non-blitz rate of 8.6.
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Stroud will be given opportunities to grow right out of the gate with a mixture of veteran and young pass-catchers, including Robert Woods, Nico Collins, John Metchie III and Tank Dell. But the early going could be rough, with a line of tough defenses to kick off the schedule. The Texans see the Ravens, Jaguars and Saints all within the first five weeks of the season, so Stroud will get plenty of exposure to challenging NFL defensive structures.
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The ultimate wild card of the first-round-QB bunch is Richardson. The early parts of his career will likely be littered with a steady mix of "wow" plays and head-scratchers, as we've already seen in the preseason. With running back Jonathan Taylor officially placed on the physically unable to perform (PUP) list, Richardson should take on more responsibilities as a runner for the Colts.
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With Arizona in full-on rebuild mode, Clayton Tune is still in the mix to play significant snaps this season, even though Joshua Dobbs is expected to start in Week 1 with Kyler Murray still recovering from his torn ACL. He will have an opportunity to show that he can develop into a reliable backup option down the road.
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Will Levis didn't play in the final two preseason games for the Titans because of a lower-body injury. He is likely to occupy the third quarterback spot on the depth chart behind Ryan Tannehill and Malik Willis, and he must continue to improve his accuracy and touch.
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Dorian Thompson-Robinson (Browns) and Aidan O'Connell (Raiders) are two Day 3 passers who looked great during the preseason. DTR is the backup to Deshaun Watson, and while O'Connell is QB3 in Las Vegas, Jimmy Garoppolo missed 31 games during his six-year career with the 49ers. I'll be watching both situations closely this season.
1:06
Bryce Young vs. C.J. Stroud: Who'll have a better rookie fantasy season?
Field Yates compares Bryce Young and C.J. Stroud ahead of their respective first fantasy NFL seasons.
CLAY'S PROJECTED ROOKIE STAT LEADERS
Passing yards
1. Bryce Young: 3,564
2. C.J. Stroud: 3,281
3. Anthony Richardson: 2,891
Passing TDs
1. Bryce Young: 18
2. C.J. Stroud: 17
3. Anthony Richardson: 16
Passing interceptions
1. C.J. Stroud: 14
T-2. Bryce Young: 13
T-2. Anthony Richardson: 13
QB rushing yards
1. Anthony Richardson: 652
2. Bryce Young: 172
3. C.J. Stroud: 149
Rushing yards
1. Bijan Robinson: 1,123
2. Jahmyr Gibbs: 763
3. Zach Charbonnet: 558
Rushing TDs
1. Bijan Robinson: 8
2. Jahmyr Gibbs: 7
3. Zach Charbonnet: 4
RB receiving yards
1. Jahmyr Gibbs: 381
2. Bijan Robinson: 373
3. Zach Charbonnet: 158
Receiving yards
1. Jordan Addison: 767
2. Quentin Johnston: 690
3. Zay Flowers: 689
Receiving TDs
1. Zay Flowers: 6
T-2. Jordan Addison: 5
T-2: Quentin Johnston: 5
T-2: Jaxon Smith-Njigba: 5
Tackles
1. Jack Campbell: 97
T-2. Devon Witherspoon: 67
T-2. Emmanuel Forbes: 67
Sacks
1. Will Anderson Jr.: 8
2. Lukas Van Ness: 7
T-3. Myles Murphy: 6
T-3: Felix Anudike-Uzomah: 6
Interceptions
T-1. Devon Witherspoon: 2
T-1. JuJu Brents: 2
T-1. Emmanuel Forbes: 2
T-1. Deonte Banks: 2
T-1. Christian Gonzalez: 2
T-1. Tyrique Stevenson: 2
2023 NFL rookies guide: Fantasy picks, stat leaders, top QBs - ESPN
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