If the Clippers want to have any hope of giving the Suns a series, they'll need Kawhi Leonard to be at his best. Our NBA betting picks are confident he'll deliver in Game 1.
Rarely is a 4 vs. 5 series so written off before it starts, but the world seems convinced the Phoenix Suns are levels above the Los Angeles Clippers, both in Game 1 and in the series overall.
If there is a reason to believe in the Clippers, though, it is Kawhi Leonard. The most stoic assassin in the NBA will certainly not go down without making the Suns sweat a little bit.
Here are our free NBA picks and predictions for the Clippers vs Suns on Sunday, April 16, with tip set for 8:00 ET.
Clippers vs Suns best odds
Clippers vs Suns picks and predictions
The Clippers were in too much of a seeding battle to ease up at the end of the regular season. There was never a night off, and Kawhi Leonard played like it. In games since March 1 that he played at least 30 minutes, Leonard averaged 28.0 points per game. Los Angeles needed every one of those buckets.
He did much more than that, too. In those 12 games, Leonard averaged 40 points + rebounds + assists, making his prop of 38.5 rather logical for this Game 1. The thing is, that average was dragged down a bit by a few blowouts. Beating the Bulls by 12 in late March resulted in Leonard playing only 33 minutes and posting a 35 points + rebounds + assists. On the flip side, getting rolled by the Warriors by 24 points in early March kept Leonard to 32 minutes and 28 points + rebounds + assists.
Raise the filter to games in which he played at least 35 minutes, and Leonard averaged 41.3 points + rebounds + assists since March 1. Doing that across five weeks and nine games is hardly a small sample set. Furthermore, he cleared 38.5 in six of those nine games.
The Clippers will need every ounce that Leonard can give them against the Suns, currently the Western Conference favorites. That is a responsibility he has never shirked from. At the risk of this handicap coming across as too obvious, there is little reason to doubt Leonard when things matter. We all know this. Yet this combination prop is not appropriately raised.
So what are we missing? Will the Suns shut him down? That may be asking too much of Josh Okogie, who likely will draw the primary defensive assignment on Leonard to allow Kevin Durant to save his energy for the offensive side of the court. Okogie is a chaos agent who relishes those kinds of matchups, but there is only so much anyone can do on Leonard.
Furthermore, the beauty of a combination prop is Leonard can charge toward the Over without even pouring in the hoops. He grabbed 15 rebounds in the season finale, against the Suns for that matter. He averaged four assists in those nine games since March 1 with at least 35 minutes. He simply fills the stat sheet.
Maybe there is a reason to doubt Leonard, but this handicapper doesn’t know it, and will not begin doing so now.
My best bet: Leonard Over 38.5 points + rebounds + assists (-125)
Not intended for use in MA.
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Clippers vs Suns spread analysis
NBA odds give a 7.5-point edge to the Suns in Sunday's Game 1, and a major reason for that is Kevin Durant.
It was oft-cited that Phoenix had not lost with him in the lineup heading into the final week of the season, and then that thought lost some steam when he sat out the final two games of the year to rest up for the playoffs and the Suns lost those two games.
But it is still true. Phoenix has not lost with Durant in the lineup, going a perfect 8-0. More pertinently, the Suns have not lost against the spread with Durant in the lineup, except against Denver. Going 6-2 ATS in eight games with Durant should stand out, particularly when those two losses were to the No. 1 team in the conference.
The Clippers also have some negative trends working against them in this spot. They're 1-4 ATS in their last five meetings with Phoenix, and 1-5 ATS in their last six road games against teams with a home winning % of greater than .600.
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Clippers vs Suns Over/Under analysis
A total that opened at 228.0 or 227.5, depending on your book, has fallen as far down as 225.5 as of Sunday afternoon. My gut suggests that this is an overreaction to the early playoff games featuring defense.
While the games have been entertaining, it has been a struggle to watch at points. But for this matchup, let’s remember Kawhi is going against Kevin Durant and Devin Booker. Buckets will be found.
The Clippers have gone Over their pregame totals in four straight games, and in eight of their last nine overall. The Suns have done so in three straight games, and in four of their last five overall.
The defenses have fallen off for both sides down the stretch, with the Suns checking in 10th in defensive rating since the All-Star break, and the Clippers 20th. They rank seventh and 17th, respectively, on the year.
This total has overcorrected, so Over bettors should take advantage.
Clippers vs Suns betting trend to know
The Clippers are 1-4 ATS in their last five games against the Suns. Find more NBA betting trends for Clippers vs. Suns.
Clippers vs Suns game info
| Location: | Footprint Center, Phoenix, AZ |
| Date: | Sunday, April 16, 2023 |
| Tip-off: | 8:00 p.m. ET |
| TV: | TNT |
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