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Wednesday, January 4, 2023

TCU scouting report from Michigan vantage point: A warning for the Georgia football team - DawgNation

ATHENS -- Remember all that talk about how Michigan was going to steamroll TCU in the CFP Fiesta Bowl Semifinal?

It only made sense when one considered how dominant the Wolverines appeared to be throughout most of the season, and even more recently, blowing through Ohio State in Columbus by a 45-23 count and then dominating Purdue 43-22 in the Big Ten Championship Game.

This Michigan team, with a more mobile quarterback in J.J. McCarthy and the two-time Joe Moore Award-winning offensive line, was said to be much better than the one Georgia beat convincingly in the Orange Bowl by a 34-11 count last season.

RELATED: Kirby sees “similarties” between TCU and Georgia, acknowledges defensive issues

The Wolverines players said they wanted another shot at Georgia this year, because it was what fueled their hard work in the offseason and made them realize where the bar was set.

Instead, TCU pulled off a stunning upset, 51-45, and so here we are with the No. 1-ranked Bulldogs preparing to face the Horned Frogs at 7:30 p.m. on Monday in the CFP Championship Game at SoFi Stadium in Inglewood, Calif.

Stetson Bennett was once again at his best and worst in the same contest, saying after the game he played “30 minutes of bad football.”

Bennett’s mistakes potentially cost Georgia as many as 14 points, and led Coach Kirby Smart to publicly criticize his quarterback after the game, much to the surprise of those caught up in a joyous program moment:

• an interception at the UGA 30 that OSU converted into a TD (7 points)

• an ill-fated lateral at the OSU 3 that moved the ball back to the 13 leading to a field goal (3 points) instead of the points awarded for a TD and extra point (4 points),

• taking a sack that moved the ball back from the Ohio State 29 that led to a 52-yard field goal miss (3 points)

And yet, there was Bennett in the fourth quarter, throwing for a CFP record 190 yards on 10-of-12 passing including the game-winner with 54 seconds left to A.D. Mitchell

Smart sternly said after the game Bennett would have to play within the offense and play better for UGA to win the championship, and yet, the head coach clearly loves the 25-year-old Georgia folk hero as much as anyone.

Bennett vowed on Tuesday to “clean up” what went wrong, and most believe if he does that -- and matches his sterling performances against Oregon, Tennessee and LSU, Georgia should cover the 14-point spread the game opened with.

But first, a look back at the TCU-Michigan game with DawgNation friend and MLive star reporter Aaron McMann, who covers the Wolverines for the award-winning, state-wide Michigan media outlet:

1. What was the biggest takeaway or surprise for you from the TCU-Michigan game?

Aaron: Frankly, it was the number of uncharacteristic mistakes Michigan made in the first half. They ran a double-reverse on fourth-and-goal at the 2 that TCU was prepared for, fumbled early in the second quarter along the goal line, and quarterback J.J. McCarthy had a couple of passes intercepted and returned for a touchdown.

It seemed like the Horned Frogs were always at the right place at the right time and threw Michigan off its game plan during the early going, which resulted in a 21-6 halftime hole.

2. C.J. Stroud was effective throwing against Georgia before the Harrison injury and showed mobility. How would you compare TCU’s Max Duggan to Stroud?

Aaron: Similar, but Duggan seems to have a bit more mobility than Stroud (and a green light to go). He reminds me of Tim Tebow when he was at Florida; that gamer who’s willing to put it all on the line for his team, whether that’s through the air or on the ground.

Duggan didn’t have a particularly strong game throwing it against U-M (he was just 14-29, 225 yards, 2 TDs, 2 INTs) but made the big play when TCU needed it. He may not beat you too often down the field, but he likes to hit the short-to-intermediate throws and let his receivers take it from there.

3. TCU rushed 41 times for 263 yards on a legit Wolverines defense. How were the Horned Frogs so effective and do you think they can do that to Georgia?

Aaron: It’s a good question. Nobody had rushed for more than 200 yards on Michigan all season long, and I think TCU’s four-receiver sets did just enough to spread out the Wolverines’ defense to make a difference.

The Horned Frogs averaged 6.4 yards per carry, but broke just two runs of more than 15 yards (both by backup Emari Demercardo, including a 69-yarder) — getting enough big yards to keep the sticks moving at times. Michigan just doesn’t have the depth up the middle to withstand that type of balance, and it really showed on Saturday.

4. TCU plays a unique 3-3-5 alignment. What worked for Michigan against that, and how might the Horned Frogs cause problems for a UGA defense that is similar to the Wolverines?

Aaron: TCU really frustrated Michigan with its 3-3-5 alignment, dropping a safety (and in some cases two) down to help guard against the run. The Wolverines had a more difficult running the football than we expected, which had been their bread and butter all season long.

So after the first-half mistakes, struggles running the football and a deep hole, Michigan was forced to throw the ball more in the second half. That played right into what TCU wanted to do, dropping five and six players at times to plug up zones and keep the Wolverines from connecting on deep balls. They did, at times, but it took some adjustments and really frustrated J.J. McCarthy and his group of receivers.

5. What’s the biggest key in this game and how do you think the Bulldogs’ national championship game with TCU will play out next Monday?

Aaron: It’s important to note that this is the first time TCU has played on a stage of this magnitude. I think many of us on the Michigan beat thought the moment to be too big for them, yet they showed poise and confidence like a team that belonged.

That’s a credit to head coach Sonny Dykes, who has risen from the Texas high school ranks to the Air Raid system at Texas Tech to his last job at Southern Methodist. He made sure his team played under control and disciplined against Michigan, which I think was caught off guard a bit by the Frogs’ performance.

Now, can they do it two weeks in a row? I have my doubts, especially having watched Michigan play both Ohio State and TCU, but I urge Georgia fans not to overlook this Horned Frogs team.

They’ll move the football and score some points (Quinten Johnston might be the best receiver in the open field I’ve seen play all season) … it’ll be up to Georgia to limit them inside the red zone and eventually suffocate them with their size and talent advantage.

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TCU scouting report from Michigan vantage point: A warning for the Georgia football team - DawgNation
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