The Houston Astros haven't yet lost a game in the playoffs, so it's no surprise that they're sizable favorites to win the World Series over the Philadelphia Phillies. One big reason, though, is how loaded they are with top-shelf, battle-tested talent, as evidenced by the first tier of this ranking of players in the World Series.
This isn't a straight ranking of regular season WAR -- it's about how these players will be used in this series. I'm ranking these players based on how good they are right now, using the role that they will likely play this week as a tiebreaker. For instance, I slightly prefer Aaron Nola to Zack Wheeler (as I did before the playoffs started, when my sources indicated a toss-up), and since Nola is starting Game 1 and thus could appear three times, he gets the slight nod. (Due to my tie-breaker rule, Wheeler would have slid ahead if he were the Game 1 starter.) Nick Castellanos has had a disastrous 2022 on all fronts but will probably start every game for Philly, so he'll slide ahead of some players who had better seasons but will only be used as defensive replacements.
The toughest part of this (and something that will split fans and analysts) is balancing season-long performance with how a player is performing in the past few weeks. The analytical types will say the hot hand should carry little weight; fans will say "but this guy is red hot!" The answer is somewhere between the two, but, to be clear, it's hardly a science.
Potential Difference Makers (11: 7 Astros, 4 Phillies)
1. Bryce Harper, DH, Phillies
The bad news first: Harper's overall value is a bit lower than normal due to the elbow injury that has kept him at designated hitter because he can't throw. He missed time this season with a hand injury and underperformed his underlying stats while also being a bit worse than last year.
And now the good: The talent of last year's National League MVP has never been in question. He's statistically better in the playoffs than the regular season, he's on a heater right now with a 1.351 OPS this postseason, and he hit one of the more cinematic homers in recent memory (especially when scored by the best baseball movie of all-time).
Sure, you could argue he should slot somewhere else in this top tier and that would be fine -- but I'll round up on vibes when given the chance.
2. Yordan Alvarez, DH, Astros
I can feel my former front office brethren cringing as I slot two DHs atop this list, but hear me out. Alvarez was the second-best player in the batter's box this year behind Aaron Judge and the underlying numbers (xwOBA in this case) suggest Alvarez was Judge's equal on a per plate appearance basis: Judge's .463 just barely edged Alvarez's .462. The third-best player was all the way down at .403. Alvarez also has been good in the playoffs (.889 OPS) -- Judge (.490 OPS) *ahem* was not.
Yes, a starter like Justin Verlander or Nola could make three starts if the series goes seven, but starters often can't deliver three times if that happens. They'd be on short rest and will often get pulled early even if they are performing well. If Harper wasn't the prospect prince that was promised on a crazy hot streak with a recent iconic moment, Alvarez would be an easy number one here.
3. Alex Bregman, 3B, Astros
Bregman posted another ho-hum five-win season and is making his sixth straight playoff appearance. He's been better than Alvarez in the small sample this fall (.975 OPS) but the notable difference this season is that Bregman's contact rate has improved two years in a row, including a crazy low 6% strikeout rate in seven postseason games -- that's a stat that many think is the key to consistent postseason performance.
4. J.T. Realmuto, C, Phillies
Realmuto has long been considered the most athletic catcher in baseball and also one of the better hitting catchers in baseball. Somewhat under the radar, he's progressed from a terrible pitch framer to a solid average one, and maybe a little less under the radar, he has one of the best arms and best exchanges amongst catchers which gives him the best pop times to second base in the league (and by a good margin).
5. Justin Verlander, RHP, Astros
As I covered in the postseason ace rankings, Verlander's 2022 regular season was incredible and deserves a lot more attention. He could really put a cherry on top of a Hall of Fame career and an exclamation point on his pending free agency with two or three strong starts in this series.
6. Aaron Nola, RHP, Phillies
7. Zack Wheeler, RHP, Phillies
Wheeler and Nola are very close to overall talent and not that far from Verlander. There's a zillion ways to evaluate a pitcher's season but a major one (FanGraphs' WAR) had Nola first in baseball and Verlander third, with Wheeler just behind them due in large part to missing six starts late in the season because of forearm tendonitis. Wheeler does throw three ticks harder than Nola, which can be an important variable in the difference between regular season and playoff baseball, but Nola gets the ball in Game 1 and I think he's just a hair better.
8. Jose Altuve, 2B, Astros
Similar to Bregman, Altuve recorded another ho-hum six-win season -- the oft-booed second baseman is now quietly within a couple similar seasons of a Hall of Fame-caliber résumé. He slid toward the back of this elite group as he's been pretty bad in the playoffs thus far (.296 OPS) and while that's a small sample that may not mean much, strikeout and walk rates stabilize most quickly in small samples and they are notably worse than the regular season.
(It's worth noting that this top tier is a deep group of role-7 and role-8 players who are posting 5-plus win seasons annually and I'm trying to guess who will be best in the next week or so, so shuffling some names around is a series of coin flips.)
9. Framber Valdez, LHP, Astros
Valdez still doesn't feel like a household name, but he's just a notch behind the three name-brand starters listed above. He has an elite 93-95 mph sinker, an elite curveball, and an elite ability to work his way deep into games. He's been dealing in his two playoff starts, but the risk remains that letting the ball be put in play could lead to a pitch or two ruining an otherwise good start.
10. Jeremy Pena, SS, Astros
I'm still a little worried that he swings too much and his swing decisions aren't good enough but 1) Pena has been making that work all year at the plate, 2) he's been scorching-hot in the postseason and 3) he's an elite defender and runner that brings value in other ways.
11. Kyle Tucker, RF, Astros
Tucker has long been a personal favorite of mine, dating back to his high school underclass days. He's delivered on that amateur promise with back-to-back 4.8 WAR seasons. He kept it up in last year's playoffs, but this season, like Altuve, has a ballooning strikeout rate, so he slides to the back of this tier.
Very Good Players (7: 4 HOU, 3 PHI)
12. Kyle Schwarber, LF, Phillies
In an ideal world, Schwarber is DHing for the Phillies and Harper is playing in the outfield, but there's no way you take this bat out of the lineup. So Philly fans just cross their fingers while he stands in left field.
13. Lance McCullers Jr., RHP, Astros
McCullers will never be a regular-season workhorse but his bananas raw stuff, ability to pitch in any role and intense demeanor seem perfectly suited to the modern playoffs.
14. Ryan Pressly, RHP, Astros
The ace reliever is the biggest example of a player whose value is enhanced the most by a long playoff series. Pressly is the best reliever in this series and there's fewer than 10 relievers in baseball I'd rather have than him here.
15. Cristian Javier, RHP, Astros
Javier snuck onto the end of the playoff ace rankings due to his scorching-hot finish to the regular season and sterling peripherals. He's a very strong fourth starter for Houston, but might also be used in a few roles in a long series, especially if they go back to Verlander on short rest.
16. Chas McCormick, CF, Astros
McCormick has already surpassed his prospect projections of being a solid fourth outfielder. He's now an elite defender with real speed, some pop and a good enough approach.
17. Rhys Hoskins, 1B, Phillies
Hoskins doesn't offer much in the way of speed, defense, positional value or batting average, but he's patient -- and he hits bombs.
18. Ranger Suarez, LHP, Phillies
Suarez's prospect projections were long reliever or back-end starter and he's already been a bit better than that the last few years. As a sinker-balling lefty starter, he's a lower rent version of Valdez.
Solid Players (11: 7 PHI, 4 HOU)
19. Bryson Stott, SS, Phillies
Stott is a rookie and has been good-not-great at the plate, but the selling point has always been that he's average-to-above at everything, rather than best-in-the-league at one thing.
20. Seranthony Dominguez, RHP, Phillies
The best Phillies reliever is fastball-heavy (70%) with his sinker, which is one of the top ten in the game, though he also throws a cutter and slider. He's been excellent in the playoffs and might be used often in a long series.
21. Jean Segura, 2B, Phillies
A steady veteran middle infielder -- a hit-first type, but well-rounded.
22. Brandon Marsh, CF, Phillies
Marsh was a football player in high school until a strong spring made him a real prospect headlined by plus athleticism, speed, defense and arm strength. That's still largely what he is, as the offensive approach hasn't clicked yet, but that's a solid low-end starter.
23. Luis Garcia, RHP, Astros
Garcia is a solid third/fourth starter in terms of skill level across the whole league, but he's the fifth-best starter on the Astros and thus is the long relief solution for when things go wrong.
24. Zach Eflin, RHP, Phillies
Eflin is a solid starter who's transitioned into a solid reliever in the playoffs and can play multiple roles based on what's needed.
25. Bryan Abreu, RHP, Astros
Abreu has below average command but sits 96-98 mph and has one of the top 15 sliders in the sport. He throws 54% breaking balls and that's probably smart for him as they are his best pitches.
26. Jose Alvarado, LHP, Phillies
Alvarado is a human manifestation of the fire emoji: He sits 99.6 mph with his heater and throws a slider that averages 93.8 mph, throwing those two pitches a combined 99% of the time.
27. Alec Bohm, 3B, Phillies
Bohm gave glimpses of a Kris Bryant-type in college but has instead leaned into contact in pro ball. He's still a below average defender at the hot corner, so he could be lifted for a defensive replacement late in some games.
28. Yuli Gurriel, 1B, Astros
Like Castellanos (below), he had a really down regular season but has been hot in the playoffs, so maybe he's back on track?
29. Rafael Montero, RHP, Astros
He's been surprisingly excellent in a bulk relief role, backed by a heavily used fastball with steadily rising velocity that is now up to 96.5 mph on average.
Role Players (23: 12 PHI, 11 HOU)
30. Hunter Brown, RHP, Astros
The Top 100 prospect made his big league debut this year and his command is still below average, but he has three plus pitches, headlined by a plus-plus curveball.
31. Trey Mancini, DH, Astros
Offers little in terms of speed or defense but does have some righty thump for situations that call for it.
32. Hector Neris, RHP, Astros
Longtime former Phillies righty throws almost exclusively a mid-90's heater and mid-80's splitter and really makes it work.
33. Nick Castellanos, RF, Phillies
He's in the first year of a $100 million deal, he's 30 and he's been terrible the whole year (-0.7 WAR and he was actually a bit lucky at the plate). That said, he's going to play and he's the type that could catch fire at any time (especially if solemn news is being delivered in the booth).
34. Noah Syndergaard, RHP, Phillies
Scouts keep insisting that "Thor" will age quickly given how he pitched and his injuries. He's now a somewhat ordinary starter that may get squeezed into the bullpen for this series.
35. Edmundo Sosa, UT, Phillies
Sosa is the righty-hitting, contact-oriented, can-play-anywhere utility guy that basically every team has (and needs!)
36. Martin Maldonado, C, Astros
The primary catcher for the Astros, but he's a lesser hitter than Vazquez, so it's arm strength and intangibles like game-calling winning out.
37. David Robertson, RHP, Phillies
He only throws a cutter, slider and curveball. And he's 37! But it's still working.
38. Christian Vazquez, C, Astros
A deadline acquisition who has played less than Maldonado in a timeshare, Vazquez is the better hitter of the two.
39. Ryne Stanek, RHP, Astros
Veteran righty sits in the upper-90's but has always had below average command. He gets squeezed out of regular usage by the deep Houston pen.
40. Matt Vierling, CF, Phillies
Vierling has a bag of above-average tools (speed, arm, raw power), but his jumps in the outfield are just okay and he doesn't walk much.
41. Aledmys Diaz, UT, Astros
Veteran utilityman can passably play in a lot of spots and be the right-handed part of a platoon.
42. Connor Brogdon, RHP, Phillies
The 6-foot-6 righty sits in the mid-90's but throws his changeup (43%) more than his fastball (32%).
43. Andrew Bellatti, RHP, Phillies
Slider-heavy middle reliever also has a mid-90's fastball and has been good in five playoff appearances.
44. Kyle Gibson, RHP, Phillies
He's always been a low-90's, pitch-to-contact type starter, and that type always becomes a long reliever in a playoff series.
45. Jose Urquidy, RHP, Astros
Another solid backend starter squeezed out of a role in the playoffs. He hasn't appeared yet, but he'll be needed in a long series.
46. Garrett Stubbs, C, Phillies
Stubbs, a former Astro, is an athletic backup catcher who can move around the diamond if needed.
47. Mauricio Dubon, UT, Astros
Dubon is a versatile, sure-handed utility type that can make contact but doesn't have much pop.
48. Brad Hand, LHP, Phillies
Veteran lefty outperformed mediocre peripherals this season and has been passed by Alvarado as the top lefty in the Phils pen.
49. David Hensley, DH, Astros
Hensley is a late-blooming, plus-power-and-patience type who could be dangerous as a pinch hitter.
50. Seth Martinez, RHP, Astros
Martinez is a somewhat generic fastball-slider reliever that sits 90-93 mph; his slider is his best pitch.
51. Bailey Falter, LHP, Phillies
Falter is a crafty, fastball-reliant lefty swing man who doesn't throw that hard but gets by due to extension, funk and angle.
52. Dalton Guthrie, UT, Phillies
I've been scouting Guthrie since he was back in high school -- he's always been a solid hit-first utility type.
As I mentioned above, the Astros are favorites because of their recent history, scorching-hot start to this postseason and edge in elite talent, winning the top tier battle here seven-to-four. Beyond that, the Astros' top reliever (Pressly) is better than the Phillies top reliever (Dominguez), and Houston is also better in leftover starting pitchers who can fill multiple roles -- and both of those superiorities could become key in a long series when the one-inning middle relievers are spent and starters are mostly five-and-dive.
Reasonable tiebreakers would be regular season performance (the Astros had the second-best record in baseball behind the Dodgers, 19 games ahead of Philly) and playoff experience (Astros also have a big edge) -- so you can see why the Astros are seen as clear favorites. All that said, these teams are both playing well and baseball is much more of a team game than football or basketball, so this is far from a sure thing -- particularly if there's an injury, a couple underperformers or some luck in one direction or another. And let's be honest -- I think Philly fans prefer being underdogs, anyway.
World Series 2022: Ranking all 52 Phillies, Astros players - ESPN
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