There are some quarterback battles that are yet to be settled as we approach NFL training camp, but that doesn’t mean we need to wait to grade out the presumptive starting QBs for the upcoming season.
Before we dive into the rankings I wanted to explain the rationale a little bit here. I’m using a 30 point grading system for the upcoming season based on three major factors that contribute to QB success.
- Tangibles: This incorporates physical traits like arm strength and speed, but durability and prior injuries.
- Intangibles: Leadership, extending plays, orchestrating game-winning drives. Also incorporates actions that benefit or harm the team.
- Supporting cast: Defense is not factored into QB rating. While it obviously plays a huge role in both QB and team success, the supporting cast rating is relegated to receivers (weighted most heavily), offensive line, and running back.
No. 1: Patrick Mahomes, Kansas City Chiefs — 27.5
Tangibles: 10, Intangibles: 10, Supporting Cast: 7.5
It’s Pat Mahomes. There’s really not much else that needs to be said. While it’s true the Chiefs took a huge hit by being forced to trade away Tyreek Hill due to salary cap concerns, this is still a really good team. The receiver corps this year is more about promise than production outside of Travis Kelce, but I have faith Mahomes will have another monster year and lift this unit.
No. 2 (tied): Joe Burrow, Cincinnati Bengals — 27.0
Tangibles: 8.5, Intangibles: 8.5, Supporting Cast: 10
Ja’Marr Chase and Tee Higgins are the best receiving duo in the NFL right now, and Cincinnati worked wonders in free agency to improve their offensive line. Burrow took strides last season to put himself among the NFL’s elite at the position, and with better protection this year he’ll cement it.
No. 2 (tied): Josh Allen, Buffalo Bills — 27.0
Tangibles: 9, Intangibles: 9, Supporting Cast: 9
There’s nothing to dislike about Allen’s game. He’s got arm strength for days, can pick up yards on the ground, and has a good cast around him. The Bills still need to find another receiver to compliment Stefon Diggs, but otherwise there’s a ton to like. Don’t sleep on James Cook, the all-purpose RB Buffalo took in the second round who could make noise in a rotational role.
No. 4 (tied): Aaron Rodgers, Green Bay Packers — 26.5
Tangibles: 10, Intangibles: 10, Supporting Cast: 6.5
Rodgers gets dinged because of his receivers. I really like Christian Watson and believe that this time next year he could blossom into a top receiver, but right now he’s got to find his NFL legs. I don’t like the lack of skill position players Green Bay has assembled right now, and while the offensive line is still stellar, I’m just not sold that it’s enough to push for a Super Bowl this season.
No. 4 (tied): Tom Brady, Tampa Bay Buccaneers — 26.5
Tangibles: 7, Intangibles: 10, Supporting Cast: 9.5
Brady seriously wrecks the curve when it comes to intangibles, but there’s no doubt his arm strength just isn’t there anymore which knocks him out of the top three. The production is there, the blocking is there, Mike Evans and Chris Godwin are incredible — they just can’t get deep balls. In 2021 Brady put up monster numbers, but his 5.7 air yards per completion were the lowest of his career.
No. 4 (tied): Kyler Murray, Arizona Cardinals — 26.5
Tangibles: 9, Intangibles: 8, Supporting Cast: 9.5
Get mad, I don’t care. Everyone has forgotten that Murray was an MVP favorite and tearing the entire league apart before he got injured and missed three games. He still threw for over 3,700 yards, had the best passer rating of his career, and had a YPA of 7.9. Getting Hollywood Brown to pair with DeAndre Hopkins was icing on the cake. I expect a big year
No. 4 (tied): Russell Wilson, Denver Broncos — 26.5
Tangibles: 8, Intangibles 9, Supporting Cast: 9.5
I promise this wasn’t some engineered cop out to put seven quarterbacks in the Top 5. Wilson is one of the best QBs in the NFL who has routinely felt under-supported by a team that didn’t really want to build around him. That changes now. I’m not sure Denver will see immediate success while he learns the system, but the cast around him is elite and there’s a chance they do big things in football’s toughest division, the AFC West.
No. 8: Justin Herbert, Los Angeles Chargers — 26.0
Tangibles: 9, Intangibles: 8, Supporting Cast: 9
The only thing missing from Herbert’s game at this point is putting the team on his shoulders more when the chips are down, and slightly lowering his interceptions. Look, we’re really nitpicking here. If he lifted by just one point he’s tied for second in the NFL. Herbert is elite, he’s the future — just need a couple of the older guys to leave the league first before he ascends.
No. 9: Matthew Stafford, Los Angeles Rams — 25.5
Tangibles: 8.5, Intangibles: 8, Supporting Cast: 9
It remains to be seen whether Cooper Kupp’s breakout sticks, or whether Allen Robinson II can return to form — but there’s so much to like here. Stafford is an excellent QB whose ranking looks lower than it should, but I just can’t justify putting him any higher on this list.
No. 10: Derek Carr, Las Vegas Raiders — 25.0
Tangibles: 8.5, Intangibles: 6.5, Supporting Cast: 10
Adding Davante Adams to the Raiders makes this team terrifying. I’ve often believed Carr was too unfairly ranked after seeing him languishing in the late teens in these kind of rankings when he’s really a top 10 passer. I know a lot of people have dubbed this a “put up or shut up” year, but I think that’s unfair considering he threw for over 4,800 yards last year. Now adding Adams to the mix and this offense is going to make noise.
No. 11: Deshaun Watson, Cleveland Browns — 24.5
Tangibles: 9, Intangibles: 6.5, Supporting Cast: 8.5
It’s impossible to address the football traits and ignore the sexual assault suits that are still being settled by the Texans and Watson. He will be suspended at least some games, he will cost the Browns some wins, which is why he gets hit on intangibles. We cannot forget the off-field issues as they are paramount here, and I’m not even going to talk about the football ability.
No. 12: Dak Prescott, Dallas Cowboys — 24.0
Tangibles: 8, Intangibles: 8, Supporting Cast: 8
Losing Amari Cooper hurts, overpaying Michael Gallup hurts. I’m having a difficult time ranking Prescott any higher this season because of these factors. I think Dak is set to take a small step back by no fault of his own, but in the woeful NFC East this team will still make the playoffs.
No. 12 (tied): Lamar Jackson, Baltimore Ravens — 24.0
Tangibles: 9, Intangibles: 9, Supporting Cast: 6
There’s so much angst about where Jackson should rank among quarterbacks that discussing him feels like a trap. My stance is pretty simple: Lamar Jackson is a top five QB who does not have the talent around him to display it. Trading Marquise Brown during the draft shows a whole lot of faith in Rashod Bateman recovering and becoming a difference maker, but it also puts a ton of pressure on Devin Duvernay to step up. Outside of Mark Andrews at tight end, the skill positions in Baltimore make me really nervous.
No. 14: Kirk Cousins, Minnesota Vikings — 23.5
Tangibles: 8, Intangibles: 6.5, Supporting Cast: 9
Cousins is going to put up huge numbers, and still make you wonder how Minnesota doesn’t have more wins. He’s a functionally fine QB who offers almost nothing special. This might be the last big year for the skill position group as constructed, as Adam Thielen will be 33 at the start of the 2023 season — but Justin Jefferson is one of the best receivers in the entire league and will drag Cousins up as a result.
No. 15: Mac Jones, New England Patriots — 22.0
Tangibles: 7, Intangibles: 8, Supporting Cast: 7
Jones took the league by storm to start the season and cooled as it went on. There’s no doubt he was adjusting to the league, but he’s already better than most QBs in the NFL. I’m interested to see where the ceiling is and whether we’ll see much more improvement from him in 2022, but I feel pretty confident putting him around the middle of the pack.
No. 16: Matt Ryan, Indianapolis Colts — 21.5
Tangibles: 7, Intangibles: 7, Supporting Cast: 7.5
I think there’s still something left in the tank for Ryan, but I’m not really sure whether the Colts can get the most out of it. Michael Pittman II is a beast, and we known Jonathan Taylor is a monster — but outside of that, I’m a little worried. I’m still stunned this team hasn’t signed Julio Jones to bolster the receiving corps. Another acquisition would push Ryan higher, but for now he’s middling in the group.
No. 17 (tied): Jalen Hurts, Philadelphia Eagles — 21.0
Tangibles: 5, Intangibles: 6, Supporting Cast: 8
This is a serious put up or shut up year. Hurts is a little too unfairly criticized, which comes with the territory playing in Philly — but 3,100 passing yards will not cut it when you have Devonta Smith and A.J. Brown. We’ll need to see a leap from Hurts this season or the team is likely going to start looking for a new passer moving forward. I have some faith, but it’s waning.
No. 17 (tied): Trevor Lawrence, Jacksonville Jaguars — 21.0
Tangibles: 6, Intangibles: 8, Supporting Cast: 7
The Jags sunk a lot of money into getting Lawrence help, and while some of that might be a little misguided (see Christian Kirk’s contract) I still believe in the second year QB. I refuse to believe he forgot how to play football upon entering the NFL, and with better blocking and more comfort in the pocket I think he can take strides this year.
No. 19 (tied): Trey Lance, San Francisco 49ers — 20.0
Tangibles: 7, Intangibles: 6, Supporting Cast: 7
I really don’t know what to think of Trey Lance because the sample size we have is just so small. I could see him surprising us and playing like a top 10 passer, or drifting down and looking below average. I just don’t know. I’m leaning a lot of what I saw in scouting him out of college, which was tremendous talent that just needed to adapt to an NFL system. We’ll see whether the work paid off.
No. 19 (tied): Jared Goff, Detroit Lions — 20.0
Tangibles: 7, Intangibles: 6, Supporting Cast: 6
A lot of Goff’s potential in 2022 hinges on Jameson Williams and what he can provide this season. I think Goff is a really solid passer who takes care of the ball, kind of built in the Matt Ryan mold. He won’t lose you close games, but won’t win the close ones either. In general I’m high on Detroit, but not sold that he’s the long-term answer.
No. 19 (tied): Tua Tagovailoa, Miami Dolphins — 20.0
Tangibles: 5, Intangibles: 6, Supporting Cast: 9
Here’s a guy lifted way up because of the players around him. Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle represent a hell of a 1-2 punch at receiver, and every other major offensive position is solid. Now it’s on Tua whether he can make the most of them and bring the Dolphins back into contention, or fold under the pressure. I have faith in Mike McDaniel to help squeeze every bit of talent he can out of the QB, but I’m not sold there’s much juice to get.
No. 22 (tied): Mitchell Trubisky, Pittsburgh Steelers — 18.0
Tangibles: 6, Intangibles: 4, Supporting Cast: 8
Another guy lifted by the team around him. This is a caretaker year while Kenny Pickett learns the ropes, and I’m not even sure Trubisky gets a full season. I think he was overhyped in free agency, and is still basically the guy who couldn’t get the job done for the Bears. The saving grace here is that the Steelers have great receivers.
No. 22 (tied): Baker Mayfield, Carolina Panthers — 18.0
Tangibles: 5, Intangibles: 7, Supporting Cast: 6
There is no way in hell Baker doesn’t start for the Panthers. There is one elite receiver on the roster in D.J. Moore, but a lot of this year hinges on whether Christian McCaffrey can stay healthy. Mayfield is an upgrade at QB, but with an offensive line still under construction and questions at the WR2 and WR3 spots I don’t think there’s a Cinderella story to be had here.
No. 24 (tied): Jameis Winston, New Orleans Saints — 17.0
Tangibles: 5, Intangibles: 5, Supporting Cast: 7
Winston is a middling QB given a shot because the Saints couldn’t find another option. I think this team is more or less punting on the season and will dive into the QB draft in 2023. I don’t think Winston will do anything wrong, or anything special — he’ll just exist.
No. 24 (tied): Marcus Mariota, Atlanta Falcons — 17.0
Tangibles: 5, Intangibles: 6, Supporting Cast: 6
Calvin Ridley’s suspension really hurts the Falcons. Kyle Pitts is emerging as an elite tight end, but Mariota is a really average QB at this point, and I don’t think he’ll have the ability to make the most of Drake London in his first year. I don’t have a lot to say, and I expect that we’ll see Desmond Ridder before the season is over.
No. 24 (tied): Ryan Tannehill, Tennessee Titans — 17.0
Tangibles: 6, Intangibles: 5, Supporting Cast: 6
This offense is all about Derrick Henry. It’s been established that Tannehill can’t shoulder the load without the Titans’ star running back on the field, and there’s little reason to expect anything different. This part of the rankings is all about caretaker QBs, and I think we could see Malik Willis before the year is done here too, especially if the Titans aren’t pushing for a playoff spot by midseason.
No. 24 (tied): Carson Wentz, Washington Commanders — 17.0
Tangibles: 6, Intangibles: 5, Supporting Cast: 6
Another year, another team believing they can be the ones to fix Carson Wentz. Truth is, this QB hasn’t been the same since his injury in Philly and watched in the wings while Nick Foles won the Super Bowl. It feels like he’s a broken player, and I don’t have a lot of faith that will magically turn around in D.C.
No. 24 (tied): Justin Fields, Chicago Bears — 17.0
Tangibles: 7, Intangibles: 6, Supporting Cast: 4
I like Justin Fields’ upside a lot, but I loathe this team’s group of receivers and think it’s setting the second year QB up for failure. Darnell Mooney is good, everything else is average. I just hope Fields gets enough help to show his tremendous potential.
No. 29: Zach Wilson, New York Jets — 16.0
Tangibles: 6.5, Intangibles: 5.5, Supporting Cast: 4
I said during the 2021 NFL Draft that falling in love with Wilson was a mistake, and so far that seems right. Only the most staunchly delusional Jets fan will find a silver lining to that season because it was absolutely atrocious. Wilson was inconsistent, showed no ability to read an NFL defense, and was a liability on the field. This can only go up ... maybe.
No. 30: Daniel Jones, New York Giants — 15.0
Tangibles: 4, Intangibles: 6, Supporting Cast: 5
Daniel Jones is bad and should have been replaced. End of notes.
No. 31: Davis Mills, Houston Texans — 14.5
Tangibles: 4.5, Intangibles: 6, Supporting Cast: 4
The Texans see something in Mills. I don’t know what that is, but they see something. I know there’s some upside here, but I’m just not seeing a huge leap that takes Mills higher than a very below average QB. The good news is that 2023 is a QB rich draft.
No. 32: Drew Lock, Seattle Seahawks — 14.0
Tangibles: 3.5, Intangibles: 3.5, Supporting Cast: 7
Like a consolation prize after failing at a carnival game, Lock was thrown in with the Russell Wilson trade. I think he will start over Geno Smith, only because it’s worth seeing if he can do anything, but really I think Seattle are punting on 2022 and preparing to get a franchise QB in the upcoming draft. It’s a smart approach, and Lock is the kind of signal caller who will ensure the Seahawks get a high draft pick.
Every NFL starting QB in 2022, ranked - SB Nation
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