My first mock for the 2022 NFL draft was all the way back in mid-January, before we knew the Bengals and Rams would shake up the first-round order and make it all the way to Super Bowl LVI. It was also before the Senior Bowl, where a few prospects dominated and impressed scouts.
Time for mock draft No. 2, where I project who each team will select based on a combination of my rankings -- I have a new Big Board with updates at every position -- pre-free-agency needs and what I'm hearing from execs, scouts and coaches in the league. Free agency kicks off in two weeks, which could shake up how we see the top of the board, so keep that in mind as you scan each selection. We're still waiting for a few potential quarterback moves, too.
We'll have a big NFL combine preview later this week, and a few top prospects already have said they won't be participating in the on-field workouts. The things that happen off the field at the combine are just as important, though, as teams can interview prospects and get to know them.
The order for the first round is set, but we're still waiting for the league to confirm all of the compensatory picks for the rest of the draft. Check out our one-hour SportsCenter Special on ESPN2 and ESPN+ on Tuesday at 5 p.m. ET to see me explain each pick -- and see my pal Todd McShay question them. Let's start with the Jags at No. 1, and I'm also going to project two trades in the top 20:
More NFL draft coverage:
Rankings | McShay's mock 2.0
First Draft podcast | Latest news
Ikem Ekwonu, OT, NC State
Offensive tackle or edge rusher here? I don't think the Jaguars are set either way. Realistically, this is down to four prospects: Ekwonu, Evan Neal, Aidan Hutchinson and Kayvon Thibodeaux. New coach Doug Pederson and the Jags will get an opportunity to meet with each of them at the combine. They'll get a front seat to all four on-field workouts, of course, but what goes on behind the scenes matters just as much.
Ultimately, I lean toward Jacksonville getting protection for quarterback Trevor Lawrence, who struggled as a rookie. This could go the other way if the organization brings back Cam Robinson in free agency, but Ekwonu -- who is a hot name among NFL teams -- would be an immediate upgrade. If the Jags can protect Lawrence with Ekwonu on the left side and Walker Little on the right, they can begin to turn around the offense. As McShay mentioned in his latest mock, 2013 was the last time an offensive tackle went No. 1 overall (Eric Fisher to the Chiefs).
Aidan Hutchinson, DE, Michigan
The Lions are in a great spot here, with a clear need at edge rusher and one of the best two prospects guaranteed to be available. Hutchinson is a local kid who just finished second in the voting for the Heisman Trophy, racking up 14 sacks and 19 total tackles for loss and dominating Big Ten offensive tackles. This is not just a sentimental pick because he went to Michigan; Hutchinson is an elite defender.
Detroit's defense is still a few pieces away from being average -- there are big questions in the secondary, too -- but this should be a rush-to-the-podium selection.
Evan Neal, OT, Alabama
This is an extremely tough pick to project before free agency, because the Texans have a barren roster with needs at most every position. And can you believe they have had only one first-round choice in the four drafts before this one? They have a long way to go to compete again in the AFC South.
If Houston really is tearing down its roster even further, that could mean trading a few key veterans, such as tackle Laremy Tunsil and wide receiver Brandin Cooks, and trying to add more picks. That opens a hole on the left side for Neal, a physical blocker with great feet. I don't think the Texans could go wrong with high-upside pass-rusher Kayvon Thibodeaux, either, but they have to hit on the top guy on their board here.
Kyle Hamilton, S, Notre Dame
I'm going to stick with Hamilton to the Jets, who were awful in the secondary in 2021 and could lose Marcus Maye in free agency. Because I know you're thinking it: No, this is not too high to take a safety. Not a safety like Hamilton, who can make a massive impact against the run and pass. He had eight career interceptions at Notre Dame and could play multiple spots along the defense at the next level. Hamilton is a versatile playmaker who will make a defense better on Day 1. The Jets still have another first-round pick to try to improve their offense.
Kayvon Thibodeaux, DE, Oregon
If the draft plays out like this and both of the top offensive tackles are off the board before the Giants pick, taking a defender makes the most sense. And if Thibodeaux is available, he'd be a perfect fit for a New York defense that needs to pair a true edge rusher with rookie Azeez Ojulari, who led the team with eight sacks last season. Thibodeaux has to improve his all-around game, but he has outstanding physical tools as a pass-rusher. He had seven sacks last season and put up the second-best pressure rate in the country (17.8%). If he comes close to his ceiling, he'll make multiple All-Pro teams.
The Giants have some nice pieces to build around for new general manager Joe Schoen and coach Brian Daboll, but they're not going to be able to acquire an edge rusher like Thibodeaux anywhere other than the draft. We could look back at this pick in five years and consider it a steal.
Charles Cross, OT, Mississippi State
This is a tricky pick, especially since we don't know yet whether the Panthers are going to acquire a veteran quarterback via trade or through free agency. Ultimately, this is a little too high for a quarterback based on my rankings because I don't see any of them in this class as top-10 selections. So while I thought about a wide receiver to help Carolina's offense -- the 6-foot-5 Drake London could help any quarterback -- let's fill a need with an immediate starter.
Cross allowed just one sack in 2021, leveling up for a pass-happy Mississippi State offense that shows no mercy for opposing linemen. He is a stellar pass-blocker as a left tackle.
Devin Lloyd, ILB, Utah
With the Giants' second top-10 pick, I'm going all-in on improving the front seven of the defense. Lloyd is a middle linebacker, yes, but he does so much more. He had 111 total tackles, eight sacks, 20 tackles for loss, four interceptions and a forced fumble last season. He had 16.5 total sacks over the past three seasons. Lloyd (and No. 5 pick Kayvon Thibodeaux) can add some pass-rush upside to a team that desperately needs it. If New York does take Lloyd here, that probably means Blake Martinez, who tore his left ACL in September, will be a salary-cap casualty.
The Giants are going to have to address their offensive line at some point this offseason, and I also thought about center Tyler Linderbaum here.
Ahmad "Sauce" Gardner, CB, Cincinnati
I'm going to stick with the same position for the Falcons at No. 8 but switch the prospect. Gardner is rising since the second half of the season and has a great shot at being the top corner in April's draft. He allowed just eight catches for 60 yards in 13 games.
Why Gardner over Derek Stingley Jr.? NFL scouts just haven't seen Stingley playing to his 2019 level over the past two seasons. He has a high ceiling, but he played in just three games in 2021 and was so-so in 2020. Stingley won't work out at the combine, but he will have a chance to rise again if he puts up excellent testing numbers at his pro day. Gardner is a safer prospect at this point. This also is a spot to watch for an edge rusher, and the Falcons have an extra second-round pick because of the Julio Jones trade with Tennessee.
Projected trade: Browns move up to get the top wideout
With the Jets lurking at No. 10, I could see the Browns making sure they get the best receiver in this class. In this scenario, the Browns could give up a third-round pick to move four spots, which should be enough to get a deal done.
From Denver's perspective, this adds a valuable top-100 pick and still keeps it in the discussion for the best edge rushers in the class.
Drake London, WR, USC
The Browns have a void at wide receiver and have to add better players around Baker Mayfield. He can be an above-average NFL quarterback when he has help around him, and Cleveland should prioritize a top-tier pass-catcher in this draft. The team had just one receiver with more than 35 catches last season (Jarvis Landry with 52).
London is a 6-foot-5 aerial threat with the traits to be an end zone weapon. He averaged 11 catches and 136 yards per game last season, before he broke his right ankle in late October. He would make Mayfield better.
Tyler Linderbaum, C, Iowa
This could be the sweet spot in the draft for Linderbaum, one of the best center prospects of the past decade. He's a plug-and-play lineman who can do everything at a high level. The Jets have to get better in front of and around quarterback Zach Wilson, who didn't have many bright spots as a rookie. Linderbaum is a step in that direction, though if wideout Drake London makes it to No. 10, he'd be a great fit.
I wouldn't be shocked if New York added another defender here, too, particularly one of the edge rushers. With four picks in the top 38, general manager Joe Douglas should put multiple selections toward a D that had trouble at every level in 2021.
Kenny Pickett, QB, Pitt
Washington's defense took a step back in 2021, but it has a lot of talent invested on that side of the ball. That's why I see the Commanders as the team most likely to target a quarterback in Round 1. Taylor Heinicke hasn't shown that he can be a consistent, NFL-level starter; Pickett could be an upgrade.
This is still a little high for a quarterback based on my Big Board -- I have Pickett and Malik Willis at Nos. 19 and 20, respectively -- but the 24-year-old Pickett is ready to play in the NFL right now. I don't think he'll have to have the developmental time that Willis will need. Ron Rivera's team could compete in the NFC East with competent quarterback play and Pickett could give them a chance. He's going to be under the microscope at the combine, as we still don't have an official hand size for him. He's expected to have below 9-inch hands, which has been one of the benchmarks for quarterbacks. I'm curious to hear how he does in interviews with teams as well.
1:52
Todd McShay breaks down the best options at quarterback for the Commanders if they choose to draft one.
Derek Stingley Jr., CB, LSU
New general manager Kwesi Adofo-Mensah and coach Kevin O'Connell inherit an aging defense from a front office that has had some notable first-round misses at cornerback in recent years, but that shouldn't keep them from taking another swing. This is the position Minnesota needs most, and Stingley could be worth it.
Stingley needs to show NFL teams that he can get back to the way he played in 2019, when had six picks as a true freshman on LSU's national title team. He won't be working out at the combine, which means his off-field work there -- interviews with teams -- will be crucial.
Jermaine Johnson II, DE, Florida State
Johnson is one of the biggest risers of the past month; he dominated at the Senior Bowl, showing that his 12 sacks after transferring from Georgia weren't a fluke. He destroyed offensive tackles in Mobile, Alabama. With Von Miller gone, this is a spot the Broncos can improve upon, especially with Bradley Chubb's injury issues. They finished the season ranked last in the league in pass rush win rate. Johnson has a big frame (6-foot-4, 260 pounds) and can play with his hand in the dirt or on his feet in a 3-4 defense. I'm a fan.
Denver is a team to watch for the quarterbacks, but I still think it's more likely that it adds one before the draft, either in free agency or via trade.
Projected trade: Saints make a jump for a pass-catcher
How about another trade here? We know the Saints are aggressive in the draft, as they once traded a future first-rounder to move up for edge rusher Marcus Davenport. This wouldn't cost near that; it'd likely take a third-round pick to move up four spots, and New Orleans only has a compensatory selection in Round 3. The need at receiver is clear, however.
Baltimore loves to acquire extra picks and could stick to its board by moving down a few spots.
Garrett Wilson, WR, Ohio State
There are many questions around the post-Sean Payton era for the Saints, but it's clear that the team has to add more weapons around whomever plays quarterback in 2022. Michael Thomas should be back after missing all of last season, and he could use a wideout to take some pressure off him. Wilson has the versatility to play in the slot or outside, and he can pile on yards after the catch. He had 113 catches and 18 touchdowns for the Buckeyes over the past two seasons.
If the Saints keep the No. 18 pick, offensive tackle could be in play, especially if Trevor Penning is available. Quarterback Malik Willis could be an option, too, but the Saints are more ready to try to win in 2022, and I think Willis needs a little more seasoning before he's thrown into the fire in the NFL.
Trent McDuffie, CB, Washington
Let's fill some holes for Philadelphia, which has three first-round picks and problems at a few spots on its roster. The Eagles made a run to the playoffs last season, winning six of their final eight games, but their defense was exposed along the way. They allowed quarterbacks to complete a whopping 69.4% of their passes, which ranked last in the league.
McDuffie, who didn't allow a single touchdown in coverage over the past two seasons, could play the spot opposite Darius Slay. He also has the ability to play out of the slot.
David Ojabo, OLB, Michigan
The Eagles ranked 31st in the league with 29 sacks last season; they have to get better there. Getting pressure on the quarterback is a way to improve the entire defense. Ojabo is a pure pass-rusher who is still developing as a run defender. He had had 11 sacks and five forced fumbles, wreaking havoc opposite potential No. 1 pick Aidan Hutchinson. I'd feel better about taking Ojabo in the middle of Round 1 vs. the top 10 because he can get swallowed up in the run game, but his edge-rush upside is undeniable.
Travon Walker, DE, Georgia
As I mentioned in my debut mock draft, the Chargers still haven't fixed their yearslong issue defending the run, as they ranked 28th in the league in yards per carry (4.8). If you're looking at a void to fill for a team that is right on the edge of playoff contention, this is a way to do it. The 280-pound Walker could be an ideal fit for L.A.'s 3-4 defense because he's a good run defender who also has some pass-rush ability. He's not a two-down player like his former Georgia teammate Jordan Davis; I think this is too high to take a nose tackle with a low ceiling for sacks. Walker had six for the national champs in 2021.
Trevor Penning, OT, Northern Iowa
This should be offensive line all the way. Left tackle Ronnie Stanley has played in just seven games over the past two seasons because of an ankle injury, and there's no guarantee he is going to get back to his 2019 level. Penning played left tackle for the Panthers, but he could slide over to the right side if Stanley returns healthy. Penning had a great Senior Bowl; he is a road grader in the run game who can plow over defenders. We know the Ravens want to run the ball, so Penning fits their style of play. Center Tyler Linderbaum also could be an option, if he is on the board.
And if Baltimore goes defense, instead, keep an eye on end Travon Walker, a versatile and disruptive player.
Treylon Burks, WR, Arkansas
One more Round 1 selection for the Eagles, who I gave defenders at Nos. 15 and 16. This could be a spot to take another receiver, their third straight draft to take one in the first round. Jalen Reagor, the No. 21 pick in 2020, has underwhelmed -- I thought it was a reach at the time -- while DeVonta Smith, the No. 10 choice last year, had a good but not great rookie season.
I would get Jalen Hurts a different kind of receiver in Burks, who is big and physical (6-foot-3, 225 pounds) and could complement Smith's speed. Burks had 1,104 yards and 11 touchdowns for the Razorbacks last season. I'm really curious to see his athletic testing numbers at the combine; it's not out of the question that he rises even farther up the board.
Malik Willis, QB, Liberty
Here's a nice landing spot for Willis, whom I've mentioned will need some time to adjust to the speed of the NFL. He didn't have a ton of talent around him at Liberty and he was sacked an FBS-high 51 times last season. He shouldn't be asked to play in Week 1 in September. If he goes to Pittsburgh, he'll compete with Mason Rudolph and Dwayne Haskins (and potentially another short-term veteran) and won't be pressured to play immediately, though the Steelers aren't going to rebuild in the post-Ben Roethlisberger era.
Willis is the most talented quarterback in this class, in my opinion, but he can be erratic with his accuracy. He has all of the tools to be successful, but he'll need to be coached hard. If the Steelers don't go with a signal-caller here, keep an eye out for offensive line.
1:38
Ryan Clark says the Steelers are not a Super Bowl contender if Mason Rudolph is the starting quarterback in 2022.
Arnold Ebiketie, DE, Penn State
The Patriots got 12.5 sacks from free-agent pickup Matthew Judon last season, while Kyle Van Noy was second on the team with five. No other player had more than three. This front seven has to add an edge rusher, especially as it seems Bill Belichick & Co. don't trust Chase Winovich, who played only 111 snaps last season, to take on a bigger role.
Ebiketie had 19 tackles for loss and 9.5 sacks last season, his first at Penn State after transferring from Temple. At 6-foot-3, 260 pounds, he could put on a few more pounds and add the position versatility that New England loves, shifting all along the defensive line. He has extremely long arms and can create leverage on his pass-rush moves. The Patriots also need to invest again at wide receiver, so I thought about one with this pick.
Nakobe Dean, ILB, Georgia
The Raiders have a new regime under coach Josh McDaniels and general manager Dave Ziegler, and they have a clear void in the middle of their defense. If Dean is still available at No. 22, this is a no-brainer. His coaches at Georgia rave about his leadership skills and he's a dominant off-ball linebacker on the field, too. He stuffed the stat sheet with 72 tackles, six sacks, two forced fumbles and two picks last season.
Cornerback and wide receiver are two other positions I considered for Las Vegas, which also has questions surrounding the future of quarterback Derek Carr, whose contract is up after the 2022 season.
Chris Olave, WR, Ohio State
Sure, Arizona spent a second-round pick on Rondale Moore a year ago, but he's more of a slot receiver who could be used in the run game, too. He averaged a staggeringly low 8.1 yards per catch on his 54 receptions, producing just 18 first downs. Think of Olave as more of a replacement for A.J. Green, who is a free agent. Olave can line up outside and run crisp routes to beat cornerbacks. He had 35 career touchdowns for the Buckeyes. This would be a selection to try to make Kyler Murray a little happier heading into an important season.
George Karlaftis, DE, Purdue
As I mentioned in January when going through my first mock draft for this class, the Cowboys' big list of free agents makes this a tough pick to project before April. They could have needs at all three levels of the defense depending on how free agency shakes out.
For now, let's get them a defensive end who would allow Micah Parsons to play more snaps at linebacker. Karlaftis didn't have eye-popping stats in 2021, but he is a good run defender who could get more sacks in the NFL than he had in college. He had just 4.5 last season. He's tough and physical, though he doesn't have the physical tools of a few other edge rushers in this class. Karlaftis' athletic testing numbers at the combine will be closely watched.
Devonte Wyatt, DT, Georgia
Here's the third member of Georgia's defense in my first-round mock, and that doesn't even include massive nose tackle Jordan Davis, who has a chance to go in Round 1 to a team that runs a 3-4 D. Wyatt is a hulking 310-pound tackle who really impressed NFL teams at the Senior Bowl last month. He could play next to Ed Oliver and eat up blockers, allowing the linebackers more space to get to the ball. Wyatt, my new top-ranked defensive tackle, went a little under the radar in college because of the talent around him, but he's a really promising prospect.
Jahan Dotson, WR, Penn State
Julio Jones is 33, has played just 19 games over the past two seasons and has only four touchdowns over that span. Can the Titans really rely on him to be a great wideout next to A.J. Brown, who has had injury issues himself? I think they need to add an extra dimension for quarterback Ryan Tannehill, and Dotson has the versatility to align out of multiple spots. He had 91 catches for 1,182 yards and 12 touchdowns last season, and he could rack up yards after the catch to help Tannehill.
Another wideout to keep an eye on late in Round 1: Calvin Austin III, a 5-foot-9, 165-pound dynamo who could run a sub-4.4-second 40-yard dash this week. He is one of the most underrated prospects in this draft, and I don't think it's that off the wall to put him to Tennessee here. He had 74 catches for 1,149 yards and eight scores at Memphis last season.
Zion Johnson, G/C, Boston College
The Bucs entered the offseason with several free-agent decisions to make, and they just added another hole with the retirement of underrated guard Ali Marpet. They could go several ways here, from offensive line to defensive line to corner. Johnson would be a pick to start at either guard or center, where Ryan Jensen is among the players set to hit the open market in a couple of weeks.
Johnson played both guard and tackle for the Eagles, but he had a dominant season at guard in 2021, where he didn't allow a single quarterback pressure, much less a sack. He took some snaps at center at the Senior Bowl and showed that he could make the transition.
Jameson Williams, WR, Alabama
The last time the Packers took a wide receiver in Round 1? It was Javon Walker all the way back in 2002. So why not another wideout 20 years later, one who could make Aaron Rodgers' life easier (assuming he stays). Williams was my top-ranked receiver before he tore his ACL in the national title game in January, which means he might not be ready to play until late in the 2022 season. For a team expected to play well into January, though, he could be a great addition. Williams averaged 19.9 yards on his 79 catches last season and had 15 touchdowns. He's super explosive. I love this fit both for team and player.
Bernhard Raimann, OT, Central Michigan
Miami has a tackle problem. Austin Jackson, the No. 18 overall pick two years ago, had to move to guard because he couldn't cut it outside. Liam Eichenberg, a second-round pick in 2021, was just OK as a rookie. The offensive line around Tua Tagovailoa just wasn't good enough last season.
Raimann is a 6-foot-6, 305-pound former tight end who had a great 2021 season. He can move his feet in pass protection and anchor in the run game. He had some trouble at times with better prospects at the Senior Bowl, but I believe in his upside. He could play left or right tackle for Miami.
Boye Mafe, OLB, Minnesota
I included Mafe (and Bernhard Raimann) on my list of potential first-round sleepers back in October, and he just keeps rising. He finished the season in a sack slump (one in his final five games), but he was phenomenal at the Senior Bowl, showing some power and finesse as an edge rusher. At 6-foot-3, 255 pounds, he can use his get-off speed to fly by tackles. Mafe has versatility as well, and he moved up to No. 3 in my outside linebacker rankings.
For the Chiefs, this is about getting younger and improving a pass rush that had only 31 sacks last season (29th in the league).
Kyler Gordon, CB, Washington
Why no offensive linemen here? Because the Bengals shouldn't force it to try to fill their biggest need. In this scenario, I didn't have another lineman with a Round 1 grade; Daniel Faalele (Minnesota) and Tyler Smith (Tulsa) are more likely to go in the first 15 picks in the second round. Cincinnati, which has salary-cap space, could also address the position in free agency.
Instead I went with a corner in Gordon who has the length and physical traits to be a No. 1 guy in the NFL. He had two interceptions last season and showed some high-end coverage traits.
Matt Corral, QB, Ole Miss
Let's end this mock draft with another quarterback, because I'm not convinced Jared Goff will be Detroit's long-term signal-caller. Corral could be, though, and in this scenario he could get time to learn behind Goff in 2022, when the Lions almost certainly won't be contending in the NFC North. Yes, they have several needs, but if they can get a quarterback with a fifth-year option, they could continue the positive momentum of their rebuild.
Corral took a step forward in 2021, throwing 20 touchdown passes and just five picks. He's a dual-threat quarterback who can beat teams with his legs, but he ran an RPO-centric offense at Ole Miss, and he's going to need to learn how to adapt in the NFL. He can spin the football, though. Corral won't work out for NFL teams at the combine, which means all eyes will be on his pro day in late March.
NFL mock draft 2022 - Mel Kiper's predictions for all 32 first-round picks, with two trade projections and a new No. 1 - ESPN.co.uk
Read More
No comments:
Post a Comment