With the Rams claiming Super Bowl LVI, the NFL offseason has officially kicked into full gear. The Rams won't mind everybody else getting a head start, but each of the league's 32 organizations is in full-on evaluation mode. Before the teams can figure out which players they want to sign in free agency in March or select in the 2022 draft in Las Vegas in April, they need to identify their own weaknesses and positions to address. I'll do my best to help.
Let's run through each of the 16 teams in the NFC and identify the most pressing personnel issue facing each organization this offseason. Whether it's a contract decision, a position that needs to be filled or a trade that could create new opportunities, I'll identify a major move for each team to make (or avoid) in the weeks to come.
I'll hit the AFC on Monday, but I'll start with the NFC and a Cowboys team that exceeded expectations -- before going one-and-down in the postseason. I'll sort these by division:
Jump to a team:
ARI | ATL | CAR | CHI
DAL | DET | GB | LAR
MIN | NO | NYG | PHI
SF | SEA | TB | WSH
NFC EAST
Find a long-term solution at safety.
While most of the focus will inevitably fall on offensive free agents Dalton Schultz and Michael Gallup, the Cowboys need to come away from this offseason with replacements at safety. Their top three players at the position from a year ago are all free agents. It's unclear whether Jayron Kearse, Damontae Kazee or Malik Hooker will be back in 2022. Keanu Neal, whom they converted from safety to linebacker, is also a free agent.
Dallas didn't spend much at safety last offseason, and with running back Ezekiel Elliott's contract still virtually unmovable before 2023, I don't anticipate the organization making too many splashy additions in free agency. The Cowboys would love a safety such as Tyrann Mathieu, but this is probably a position they will address in bulk.
I wouldn't be surprised if they brought back one of their safeties, added a low-cost option in free agency and used one of their top three picks in the draft to find a future starter.
Decline Daniel Jones' fifth-year option.
Everything out of New York so far suggests that the Giants are still occupying most of the seats on the Jones bandwagon. Owner John Mara suggested that the organization had "done everything possible to screw [Jones] up," before mentioning that all of the people the team had interviewed to take over as coach and general manager were excited about his potential. Of course, it's generally not a good idea to tell the person interviewing you for a job that he made an ill-advised choice a few years ago, but new coach Brian Daboll and GM Joe Schoen will start their tenures with Jones as their starting quarterback.
The first big decision facing them will be figuring out what to do with his fifth-year option. Under the most recent collective bargaining agreement, fifth-year options became fully guaranteed when they're picked up, which is what has left the Panthers in a bind. Carolina traded for Sam Darnold last April and the picked up his fifth-year option. Despite benching Darnold at points last season, the Panthers are on the hook to pay him $18.9 million in 2022.
The Giants would owe Jones $21.4 million in 2023 if they pick his fifth-year option up this spring. The chances of him emerging as an above-average starter after beginning his career with three subpar seasons are extremely slim. He has posted adjusted net yard per attempt indices (ANY/A+) of 88, 83 and 92 to start his career. The only other quarterbacks since the merger to fail to post even an ANY/A+ of 95 across 300 attempts in their first three seasons are Darnold, Jeff George and Rick Mirer.
The same arguments we saw with Darnold have popped up with Jones, and they're even less applicable for the quarterback on the blue side of the Meadowlands. Jones has had to deal with injuries, but he has been surrounded with significant investments on offense. Six players were targeted at least 30 times by him in 2021. That group included three first-round picks (Saquon Barkley, Evan Engram and Kadarius Toney), a high-priced free agent (Kenny Golladay), a slot receiver retained on a significant deal (Sterling Shepard) and Darius Slayton. The Giants used another top-five pick in 2020 on left tackle Andrew Thomas, who played much better last season.
Jones hasn't always had great offensive line play, but his propensity to wait aimlessly in the pocket has created his own problems. His 48.2 QBR when the opposing defense didn't produce a single pass rush win within 2.5 seconds ranked 22nd in the league. He actually posted the third-best QBR on deep throws, but he threw deep less frequently than the majority of passers. He outproduced the other quarterbacks on New York's roster, but I'm not sure being better than Mike Glennon or Jake Fromm should justify another season at more than $20 million.
Guaranteeing Jones' 2023 salary is an unnecessary commitment. If Daboll can't coax a turnaround out of him, the Giants will be able to avoid a Darnold situation and end the Jones era without any further investment, allowing them to find a new quarterback next offseason. Even if he does turn things around, though, the Giants would be able to use the franchise tag in 2023 to create some leverage if they want to do a new deal. The Giants are still in on Jones, but there's nothing here to justify a longer commitment. Yet.
Find a long-term replacement at safety.
Sounds familiar, right? Well, just like their division rivals in Dallas, the Eagles are going to be in the market for safety help this offseason. Anthony Harris and Rodney McLeod are both free agents, and while the Eagles could turn to Marcus Epps or 2020 fourth-rounder K'Von Wallace for more snaps in 2022, this is a position in which defensive coordinator Jonathan Gannon will probably want two new starters.
Unlike the Cowboys, though, the Eagles have the resources to make a more significant splash at the position. They will need to address wide receiver, edge rusher and possibly the interior of their offensive line this offseason if center Jason Kelce doesn't come back, but they have three first-round picks and ample cap space to take a swing at one of the top options in free agency.
The safety class could include Tyrann Mathieu, Marcus Maye, Marcus Williams, Quandre Diggs, Terrell Edmunds, Justin Reid and even Bengals standout Jessie Bates, although I'd be shocked if Cincinnati didn't franchise him. The Eagles have made significant investments at safety under general manager Howie Roseman in the past, and I would expect them to sign one of the top players available at the position.
Address quarterback.
Well, this one is obvious. Washington signed Ryan Fitzpatrick last offseason and paid him $9.1 million for six total pass attempts, as the bearded journeyman suffered a hip injury in Week 1 and was never able to return. Taylor Heinicke took over for the remainder of the season and posted a 39.9 Total QBR, which ranked 23rd in the league.
Heinicke had impressive performances, including a win in his rematch against the Bucs, but he cratered at the end of the season. Over the last month, he went 54-of-101 for 610 yards with two touchdowns, four picks and a passer rating of 61.9. The 28-year-old is under contract for 2022 with a cap hit of just $2.9 million, so while the Commanders should absolutely keep him around as a backup, he didn't do enough in 2021 to earn a clear path to a starting job.
Washington is projected to start the offseason with $30.4 million in cap space, but that could rise north of $50 million if it moves on from offensive lineman Ereck Flowers and designates safety Landon Collins as a post-June 1 release. Coach Ron Rivera will need to rebuild the interior of his line, given that the Commanders would be down both starting guards by cutting Flowers and losing star Brandon Scherff to free agency, but they would have more than enough room to add a quarterback if so inclined.
Unfortunately, unless the Commanders can corral Aaron Rodgers or Russell Wilson, there are not a lot of great options on the market. They would presumably be interested in Jimmy Garoppolo if the 49ers choose to trade their starter. One veteran who comes to mind is Andy Dalton, who worked under Washington quarterbacks coach Ken Zampese in Cincinnati. Rivera could also choose to use the No. 11 pick in the draft on a quarterback, but considering the relative low marks given this class, an immediate starter such as Garoppolo or Dalton seems like a more plausible path for Washington.
NFC NORTH
Get (most of) a new offensive line.
New coach Matt Eberflus and offensive coordinator Luke Getsy have a huge task ahead of them. The Bears have quarterback Justin Fields, which is exciting, and we generally know whom he'll be throwing to in 2022. They will need to find a replacement for free agent Allen Robinson, but they will otherwise run out David Montgomery, Darnell Mooney and Cole Kmet. That part's easy.
When it comes to protecting Fields, Chicago doesn't have any solid answers. James Daniels, Germain Ifedi and future Hall of Famer Jason Peters are all free agents and unlikely to return. Center Sam Mustipher isn't an NFL-caliber lineman. Cody Whitehair hasn't lived up to the five-year, $51.2 million extension he signed in 2019, in part because he has been moved to guard, and the regime that handed Whitehair that deal is no longer in power. Rookie fifth-rounder Larry Borom was solid during the second half of the season at right tackle, but second-rounder Teven Jenkins was limited to 161 snaps by injuries.
Phew. Realistically, if the Bears want to try to retain some continuity while giving Fields a chance to thrive, they could move Whitehair to center, install Jenkins and Borom as the two tackles and go find two new guards. If Getsy wants to make more significant changes, there's a chance that Jenkins is the only guy on the current roster who starts Week 1. New offensive line coach Chris Morgan is going have his work cut out for him.
Add a significant wide receiver.
The 3-13-1 Lions didn't have a great win-loss record in 2021, but both the numbers and leaguewide perception suggest that they played better than the standings indicated. Coach Dan Campbell and his coaching staff had Detroit's players giving their all through a hopeless season, and the organization found useful players on both sides of the ball. Amani Oruwariye emerged as a promising cornerback. First-rounder Penei Sewell looks like a building block at tackle. Edge rusher Charles Harris led the team with 7.5 sacks (though he's now a free agent).
One of the other impressive players was Amon-Ra St. Brown, who emerged late in the season to become virtually the entire Detroit passing attack. From Week 13 on, St. Brown ranked among the league leaders in receptions (second), receiving yards (fourth), yards per route run (11th) and target share (seventh). With St. Brown and a healthy D'Andre Swift, the Lions have a pair of weapons who can work underneath and create after the catch.
What the Lions don't have, though, is an outside receiver who can win downfield. Breshad Perriman and Tyrell Williams were supposed to play that role, but neither was still on the roster by midseason. Detroit should use the No. 2 overall pick to address a pass rush that ranked 31st in pass rush win rate, but with picks Nos. 32 and 34 and what should be about $40 million in cap space after releases, Campbell and general manager Brad Holmes should make wideout a priority. The Lions' quarterback of the future isn't on their roster, but if they can have their weapons in place before that guy arrives, it should speed up their rebuild.
Re-sign Aaron Rodgers.
Let's be realistic. The Packers didn't see this coming. When they drafted Jordan Love two years ago, coach Matt LaFleur and general manager Brian Gutekunst were addressing a position where their starter was in decline. Rodgers responded by raising his game and winning back-to-back MVP awards. At 38, Rodgers should still have several years of excellent football in his future. The Love decision is a sunk cost. What was the plan does not have to be and should not be the plan.
Rodgers has alluded to an uncertain future, and it's unclear whether that would involve the future Hall of Famer retiring or asking to be traded. He said after the divisional-round loss to the 49ers that he would not want to be part of a rebuild, but with the Packers dominating the NFC North each of the past three seasons, they're not about to embark on one. He isn't going to join a better team than the one he has in Green Bay, and the Packers aren't going to land a better quarterback than the one they already have.
Bringing back Rodgers for one more season, though, is probably a nonstarter. The Packers are in rough salary-cap shape before even considering wide receiver Davante Adams, who is likely to be franchise-tagged. Rodgers is under contract for two more years, and while he has cap figures of $46.6 million and $33.2 million in 2022 and 2023, respectively, he has only $53 million in cash coming his way over those seasons. He's due a raise, and Green Bay could use one to create cap space in 2022.
Of course, Rodgers won't come cheap. The Packers would need to do something spectacular and make a multiyear commitment. What would that look like? Below is one proposal, in which he would be in position to become the highest-paid quarterback in league history in terms of average annual salary. A four-year, $184 million deal would average $46 million per season. He would take home $117.5 million guaranteed over the next three years, including a $30 million signing bonus in 2022 and a $30 million option bonus in 2023. His cap hit would also drop by $16.6 million in 2022, giving the Packers much-needed financial relief:
The Packers would be committing to Rodgers through 2024, at which point the two sides could part ways. They would then owe $30 million in dead money on what is expected to be a much larger salary cap. Love's future would likely be elsewhere, and while the team probably wouldn't be able to recoup the first-round pick it used, it could move forward with quarterback drama resolved and remain in position to compete for a Super Bowl.
Extend Kirk Cousins' contract.
I know. Cousins isn't the most exciting quarterback. If there's anyone who gets held up as the example of a signal-caller who is just good enough to be competent without being talented enough to win a Super Bowl, it's Cousins. Former Vikings coach Mike Zimmer had to beg him at times to be more aggressive with the football. There's certainly a subset of Vikings fans who want their favorite team to go in a different direction.
And yet, when you look at Cousins' actual performances, he is solid at worst and excellent at his best. He ranked fourth in the league in average net yards per attempt (ANY/A), which adds sacks to passing yardage, touchdowns and interceptions. He ranked fifth in passer rating. If you think he was taking advantage of garbage time, situation-adjusted stats such as DVOA (eighth) and QBR (14th) suggest that he is more than capable of holding his own.
The hiring of Kevin O'Connell, who worked with Cousins in the past, suggests that he is likely to stick around. Given the fact that he has a $45 million cap hit in 2022, Minnesota needs to either restructure his deal by adding voidable years or hand him an extension with a signing bonus to reduce his 2022 number.
2:05
Stephen A. Smith emphatically debates Chris Russo over Kirk Cousins and Dak Prescott.
The latter makes more sense to me, even if it means keeping Cousins in the range of $35 million per season. The ideal scenario for the Vikings would be signing him to a five-year pact that they can reexamine after 2023 without having to eat an ungodly amount of money. It might be more realistic to shoot for 2024. Either way, with a team that finished ahead of the Bengals, Titans and Raiders in DVOA in 2021, I'm not sure I would be desperately anxious to blow things up and go in a different direction at quarterback.
As for the Super Bowl argument, well, it's naive. The Ravens won a Super Bowl with Joe Flacco. The Giants won two Super Bowls with Eli Manning. The Eagles won a Super Bowl with Carson Wentz and Nick Foles. None of those teams had a dominant defense, at least during the regular season. The way to win a Super Bowl is get into the postseason and have your quarterback get hot in January. Cousins gives the Vikings an above-average option to start that process.
NFC SOUTH
Commit toward competing or rebuilding.
This one is a little more abstract. On paper, the Falcons should start over. They're nearly $2 million over the projected 2022 cap with a team that finished 30th in DVOA. Their 7-10 record was buoyed by an incredible amount of luck in close games, as they went 6-2 in games decided by seven points or fewer. They didn't win a single game by more than eight points, and when they lost, it came by nearly 18 points per defeat. Arthur Smith's team would typically project to get worse in 2022, and that's without considering pending free agents and the team's potential breakup with wide receiver Calvin Ridley.
And yet, given the state of the NFC South, the Falcons could make a case for pushing toward trying to win in what might be the final years of Matt Ryan's career. The starting quarterbacks in the division at the moment are Taysom Hill, Sam Darnold and Kyle Trask. The Buccaneers lost Tom Brady and the Saints lost Sean Payton. The Panthers sought out a "rock star" offensive coordinator and landed Ben McAdoo. The South is suddenly up for grabs in a major way, and Atlanta has the best quarterback by a considerable margin.
So, maybe the Falcons try to squeeze out one more division title around their 36-year-old quarterback. A contract extension for Ryan would bring down his unreasonable 2022 cap hit of $48.7 million. Ridley could net them a second-round pick and/or young talent in a trade -- I keep looking at the Patriots, who need a No. 1 wideout and have a useful pass-rusher they don't seem to want in former Michigan end Chase Winovich. There's the beginning of a young core here around star cornerback A.J. Terrell, tight end Kyle Pitts and guard Chris Lindstrom.
If the Falcons can clear out enough cap space to add pass-rush help, get a good deal for Ridley and nail this draft, maybe they're better off trying to get to 10 wins in the hopes that'll be enough to take home a division title.
Get a left tackle.
Yes, the Panthers need to add a quarterback who is not Sam Darnold or P.J. Walker. That should go without saying. Darnold's $18.9 million guarantee will make him the most expensive backup in football, but they would be wasting their time to give him yet another go as their Week 1 starter.
Even if the Panthers were going to add one of the superstar veteran quarterbacks who might be available this offseason, though, Matt Rhule & Co. might not get the return they're hoping without solving their left tackle conundrum. Consider that Tom Brady posted a 70.0 QBR when his starting five offensive linemen were on the field for Tampa over the past two seasons. When even one of those linemen was not available, his QBR dropped by more than 19 points. Having a weak point along the line -- let alone one protecting the blind side of your likely future quarterback -- is a glaring flaw for any offense.
The Panthers have been struggling to find a long-term solution on the left side since Jordan Gross retired after the 2013 season. "Struggling" might be an understatement; they have had a new starter on the blind side every single season since Gross left the game. Byron Bell gave way to Michael Oher, who got hurt and ceded the job to Mike Remmers. Matt Kalil got a massive contract and played one dismal season before getting hurt and released. Chris Clark took over, and while Carolina used a second-round pick on Greg Little, Dennis Daley played ahead of Little in 2019. The Panthers traded for Russell Okung in 2020, but after seven games with the veteran, they turned things over to journeyman Cameron Erving in 2021.
This has to end. The Panthers passed up the opportunity to draft Chargers standout Rashawn Slater with their top pick in 2021, and while third-rounder Brady Christensen started four of the final five games, his 80% pass block win rate over that stretch ranked 60th out of 68 qualifying tackles. Carolina is set on the right side with Taylor Moton, but the turnover on the left side has to get solved now.
Bring in a quarterback.
With Sean Payton retired, the Saints find themselves in a different sort of bind than the one we saw a year ago. The salary cap shouldn't be as pressing of a concern as it was in 2021, given that the leaguewide figure will go up and New Orleans won't be dealing with as much dead money as it was a year ago. The Saints will restructure and get where they need to be, although they would have to deal with more dead money if they can't re-sign left tackle Terron Armstead. (The restructures mean they are also stuck with deals they might not love, like the massive contract afforded wide receiver Michael Thomas, who hasn't played a full game at 100 percent since 2019.)
Last year, though, the Saints nearly made a playoff run with the combination of Jameis Winston, Taysom Hill, Ian Book and Trevor Siemian at quarterback. I don't think they're going to be quite as effective when it comes to getting by under center without Payton's playcalling and game preparation in the building. As a result, they probably need to have a more robust quarterback solution in 2022, although a reunion with Winston might make sense for both sides.
The cap would make simple moves for Kirk Cousins or Aaron Rodgers a hindrance, although the Saints could also do a new deal as part of any trade. One alternative would be to sign beloved former backup Teddy Bridgewater, which could be accomplished at a much cheaper price. The latter move would be another signifier of how things are changing in New Orleans, with the pass-happy, defense-optional Saints of the Drew Brees era now a team built to win with its defense and running game.
Acquire Carson Wentz.
I'm going to argue that the Colts should keep Wentz when I hit the AFC teams, but if he is actually about to be traded or released, the Bucs should go out of their way to get a deal done. Wentz had a dismal end to the season after returning from a bout with COVID-19, but over the entire season, he ranked ninth in Total QBR and 13th in both passer rating and adjusted net yards per attempt.
Wentz might not have the ceiling some saw for him after the 2017 season, when he played MVP-caliber football and helped the Eagles push for the top seed in the NFC and an eventual Super Bowl, but a solid quarterback should be all the Bucs need to repeat as NFC South champions. Wentz's size and pocket presence also make him the prototypical Bruce Arians quarterback, with the Bucs coach comparing him to Tom Brady and Ben Roethlisberger during that breakout 2017 campaign.
If the Bucs can get Wentz for a midround pick, that would be an easy transition from the Tom Brady era.
1:08
Jeff Saturday believes the Indianapolis Colts will move on from Carson Wentz and look for a new starting quarterback.
NFC WEST
Replace Chandler Jones.
The Cardinals find themselves in a sticky situation this offseason. With just under $3 million in cap space before restructures, they need to re-sign or replace a number of veterans, including Jones, Zach Ertz, A.J. Green, Christian Kirk, James Conner, Chase Edmonds and Max Garcia. On top of that, they are now allowed to start negotiating an extension with quarterback Kyler Murray, although the relationship between the 2019 No. 1 overall pick and the franchise seems strained at the moment.
With Markus Golden under contract for 2022, Arizona might need to sacrifice Jones to make moves elsewhere. The edge rusher produced five sacks in the season-opening win over Tennessee, but he was able to muster only 5.5 more the rest of the way. The 32-year-old finished 33rd among edge rushers in pass rush win rate, down from 20th in 2019. He missed most of 2020 with a biceps injury.
Before 2021, I would have advocated for the Cardinals to franchise-tag Jones. Now, it might make more sense to wait out the market or opt for a younger option.
Find a left tackle.
We're still figuring out who will and won't return to the Rams in 2022, but it seems likely that we've seen the last snaps for 40-year-old tackle Andrew Whitworth. One of the best moves the team has made during the Sean McVay era is signing away the 16-year vet from the Bengals, who wanted to go with younger options at left tackle. Whitworth has been a dominant player for most of the ensuing five seasons, and he did an excellent job against Trey Hendrickson in the Super Bowl.
The first player off the bench to replace Whitworth has been swing tackle Joe Noteboom, but the 2018 third-rounder is a free agent. The Rams haven't always been aggressive investing up front, but getting someone established to protect Matthew Stafford's blind side is essential to their chances of repeating. If they want to target another veteran, 36-year-old Seahawks tackle Duane Brown could make sense.
Begin the Trey Lance era.
It's time. One of the benefits of trading multiple first-round picks for a rookie quarterback is enjoying multiple cost-controlled seasons from that passer. Most of the league's top passers signed their first extension after their third season. Lance has already spent his first year on the bench, and while Jimmy Garoppolo had a solid season and came up with several game-winning drives in January, we saw his limitations in the fourth quarter against the Rams in the NFC title game. Garoppolo is going to have a meaningful trade market, which will help defray some of the cost of trading up for Lance in the first place.
If the 49ers can get a second-round pick for Garoppolo, they'll clear about $25.5 million in cap space and open a path for Lance. I don't think anybody knows whether Lance will be ready, but he isn't going to get any better sitting on the bench and watching from afar. Kyle Shanahan & Co. should target a veteran backup for depth and mentorship purposes, but it's time for the 21-year-old to take over. Few offenses in football will be more fascinating in 2022.
Fix the pass defense.
The Seahawks finished the season ranked 26th in pass defense DVOA. It represents a bottoming-out for a franchise that began its most recent run to the Super Bowl on the backs of the Legion of Boom. Pete Carroll's defense ranked 30th in adjusted sack rate and cycled through cornerbacks in 2021. Jamal Adams, the defense's prized addition in 2020, failed to rack up a sack and allowed a 93.8 passer rating in coverage. The Seahawks, who seemed to have a nine-win floor when they sent two first-round picks to the Jets for Adams, finished 7-10, and they will send the No. 10 overall pick to New York in April's draft.
Seattle has nearly $37 million in cap space and could add another $16 million if it releases franchise stalwart linebacker Bobby Wagner. Either way, it has enough cap room to address its dismal pass defense. Carroll and general manager John Schneider need to add at least one pass-rusher and a second if they move on from veteran Carlos Dunlap.
The edge rusher market includes veterans Chandler Jones, Von Miller, Jason Pierre-Paul, Haason Reddick, Melvin Ingram and Emmanuel Ogbah; the Seahawks will probably start their offseason rebuild there.
Making NFL offseason moves for NFC teams - How to improve all 16 and fill needs in free agency and 2022 draft - ESPN
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