The 2021 NBA free-agent signing period is running at full speed, with a flurry of deals getting done right after the 6 p.m. ET start.
Among the most impactful Day 1 deals: Kyle Lowry joining the Miami Heat on a three-year deal via sign-and-trade with the Toronto Raptors, Chris Paul re-signing with the Western Conference champion Phoenix Suns on a four-year deal, Lonzo Ball heading to the Chicago Bulls and Mike Conley returning to the Utah Jazz.
What other deals are getting done, and how are they shifting the balance of power around the league? Let's evaluate all the significant free-agent signings and trades to determine which moves make sense, which are bargains and which are head-scratchers.
Wizards set to replace Westbrook with Dinwiddie
Washington is nearing a deal to sign guard Spencer Dinwiddie
Credit Nate Duncan of the "Dunc'd On Basketball NBA Podcast" for selling me on Dinwiddie. Duncan and co-host Danny Leroux have been high on him as a free agent, and I was more skeptical because of his questionable shooting. But they're correct that this is partially a function of the on-ball role Dinwiddie had played in Brooklyn.
Per Second Spectrum tracking, Dinwiddie has made 36% of his catch-and-shoot 3-point opportunities in his NBA career, just below the league average of 37%. It's on 3s off the dribble where Dinwiddie has struggled, shooting just 29% on attempts the league as a whole has made at a 32% clip.
Heading to Washington, Dinwiddie won't entirely abandon an on-ball role. He'll be called on to start at point guard, filling the hole left by last week's trade sending Russell Westbrook to the Los Angeles Lakers. Still, with Bradley Beal alongside him in the backcourt, Dinwiddie will have more playmaking support than he had for much of his time in Brooklyn. When Beal is operating with the ball, Dinwiddie's average-ish shooting will be a huge upgrade from Westbrook's.
I also like the timetable with Dinwiddie, who is 28 -- the same age as Beal. Dinwiddie is young enough to still have value to the Wizards if Beal ultimately leaves but also in his prime to help them compete now. Of course, this is all pending Dinwiddie's full recovery from a partial ACL tear in December that required season-ending surgery.
It remains to be seen how Washington can complete a deal for Dinwiddie to offer him more than the $9.5 million non-taxpayer midlevel exception. However this deal comes together, it looks like another step for the Wizards toward more sustainability in contending for a playoff spot in 2021-22 and perhaps beyond.
Allen gets $100 million from Cavs
Cleveland agreed to sign center Jarrett Allen to a five-year, $100 million deal
The prospect of a contract like this is why I wasn't as high on the Cavaliers' part of the four-team trade that landed James Harden in Brooklyn as the general consensus. Cleveland gave up a first-round pick (Milwaukee's in 2022) and took on forward Taurean Prince in order to get Allen.
Now, the Cavaliers had to give up a second-round pick to turn Prince into Ricky Rubio on draft night and Allen has commanded $20 million per year as a restricted free agent. Few centers are worth that kind of investment in the modern game.
This is no knock on Allen, who's very good for the kind of player he is -- an above-the-rim finisher in the pick-and-roll who ably defends it at the other end of the court. That type of player just happens to be eminently available right now, meaning the Cavaliers could have had 90% of Allen's skill set for 70% of the price.
The other Cleveland-specific issue is the possibility that the Cavaliers ultimately decide No. 3 overall pick Evan Mobley is better as a center than at power forward next to Allen. At $20 million a year -- presumably with increasing salary each season -- I'm not sure Allen will have positive value in the trade market. It's possible Cleveland might ultimately be in the position of either giving up draft picks or taking on a lesser player to facilitate a deal.
Conley inks a new deal with the Jazz
Utah agreed to sign guard Mike Conley to a three-year, $72.5 million deal
After he made his All-Star debut at age 33 and was a key part of the Jazz posting the NBA's best record during the regular season, there was no question Utah had to re-sign Conley. Given that constraint, the Jazz can feel good that his contract didn't go nearly as high as the bidding for fellow veteran point guards Kyle Lowry and Chris Paul, who each got around $30 million average salaries on deals struck Monday.
Although Conley doesn't project as valuable over the next few years as the more accomplished Lowry and Paul, there were plenty of teams left out of the bidding for them who could have more aggressively targeted Conley. After all, every dollar counts for Utah, which will likely pay the tax for a second straight year. Based on Conley's reported contract, the Jazz are more than $8 million above the tax line with just 10 players under contract, including the non-guaranteed salary of wing Miye Oni.
The key remaining question for Utah's offseason is whether the team will feel comfortable using the $5.9 million taxpayer midlevel exception after shedding salary with last week's deal sending Derrick Favors to the Oklahoma City Thunder. The tax midlevel could help the Jazz replace Favors or yield additional quality wing defenders, addressing an issue the LA Clippers exposed en route to beating Utah in the second round of the playoffs.
Robinson cashes in with the Heat
Miami agreed to sign forward Duncan Robinson to a five-year, $90 million deal
Everybody can feel good about Robinson's contract, the largest ever for an undrafted player. It's a win for a player who worked hard to prove he was more than just a shooter and ended up starting in the 2020 NBA Finals, as well a win for the organization that facilitated that process and reaped the benefits of having Robinson on a minimum contract the past two seasons.
After agreeing to acquire Kyle Lowry in a sign-and-trade deal with the Toronto Raptors, the Heat had a narrow salary structure to retain Robinson and slotted this perfectly in it. The concession was giving out a five-year deal. Typically, that's a good thing for a team with a restricted free agent, but remember that Robinson was 24 when he wrapped up at Michigan after a year in prep school and sitting out a season upon transferring from Division III Williams College. So by the end of this deal, he'll be 32 and declining physical skills might be a bit of a concern.
Lack of shooting should never be an issue. Robinson has made 520 3-pointers over the past two seasons, ranking in the NBA's top five both years, and the spacing he provides is an ideal complement to Miami's new All-Star trio of Bam Adebayo, Jimmy Butler and Lowry.
The Knicks are bringing (most of) the band back
New York agreed to re-sign Derrick Rose, Alec Burks and Nerlens Noel, and added Evan Fournier
Because of New York's strategy of short-term deals, five of the seven Knicks who played more than 80 minutes in their first-round loss to the Atlanta Hawks hit free agency this summer (Randle and RJ Barrett were the two players under contract -- and even Randle's contract didn't fully guarantee until Saturday).
New York quickly agreed to re-sign three of those players Monday. Noel, who started at center late in the season with Mitchell Robinson sidelined, agreed to a three-year deal worth $32 million. Backup guard Burks got $30 million over three years, equivalent to the non-taxpayer midlevel exception other teams could have offered. And Rose got the largest deal of all, $43 million over three years.
Who wins the Devonte' Graham deal?
New Orleans agreed to trade a lottery-protected 2022 first-round pick to Charlotte for guard Devonte' Graham, who will join the Pelicans on a four-year, $47 million deal.
Shooting is the primary skill Graham brings to a Pelicans team starved for it around Zion Williamson. Graham made 218 3-pointers in 2019-20, good for fifth in the league despite the Hornets not making the bubble restart, and ranked 14th last season when injuries limited him to 55 games. Graham isn't the most accurate shooter, having hit between 37% and 38% of his attempts in both seasons, but he succeeds in a volume game with a career average of 9.4 attempts per 36 minutes -- far more than Lonzo Ball had averaged prior to jumping to 9.4 last season.
After operating as Charlotte's primary ball handler in 2019-20, Graham played off the ball far more last season due to the arrival of LaMelo Ball. That experience will surely help him in New Orleans, given the Pelicans' desire to put the ball in Williamson's hands for "Point Zion" to go along with Brandon Ingram isolations and Nickeil Alexander-Walker as a combo guard who likes to handle the ball.
Nets bring back Blake
Brooklyn agreed to re-sign forward Blake Griffin to a one-year deal
There was no greater testament to Griffin's importance to the Nets last season than the 40 minutes he played in the deciding Game 7 of Brooklyn's series against the Milwaukee Bucks in the conference semifinals, which went to overtime. Griffin fouled out with 1:25 left and the Nets up four in a game they'd go on to lose by two.
Suffice it to say that Griffin was very different than the one who looked physically limited with the Detroit Pistons prior to a buyout. Griffin famously went from zero dunks in 20 games for the Pistons to 18 in 26 games for Brooklyn -- 10% of all of his field-goal attempts. Playing with better talent surely helped create opportunities for Griffin, but he was able to take advantage of them in a way he couldn't in Detroit.
In Griffin and Jeff Green, the Nets had two key free agents who made the veterans minimum last season, and prioritizing Griffin made sense based on his superior play in the postseason. Brooklyn lost Green, who agreed to a two-year deal with the Denver Nuggets, yet retaining Griffin is a solid start to Brooklyn's free agency.
Lakers sign four familiar faces
Los Angeles agreed to sign guards Kent Bazemore and Wayne Ellington, forward Trevor Ariza and center Dwight Howard
The Lakers are reuniting with old friends. All four free agents who agreed to deals with them Monday -- presumably for the veterans minimum -- have previous stints wearing forum blue and gold. And while age is a concern, all four look like excellent values at the bargain price.
Ellington is the most surprising minimum pickup to me. Although he played last year on the veterans minimum for the Detroit Pistons, his performance -- 42% 3-point shooting on six attempts per game while starting 31 of the 46 games he played -- was the very definition of a make good. Despite resting frequently down the stretch with the Pistons out of playoff contention, Ellington made more 3-pointers (116) than any player the Lakers had on their roster after agreeing to the Russell Westbrook trade.
We've never seen Ellington tested defensively in the playoffs. He has played just 11 career playoff games, all of them in the first round. Still, he's such an effective shooter that I wouldn't mind if the Lakers actually gave their taxpayer midlevel exception to Ellington rather than paying him the minimum.
Bazemore is the other perimeter player the Lakers added. His brief stint with the Lakers came after the 2014 trade deadline, and 15 starts in L.A. helped establish Bazemore as a target for the Atlanta Hawks. He played an important role for the Golden State Warriors last season, starting 18 games and averaging 20 MPG. The Lakers shouldn't count on a repeat of last year's 41% 3-point shooting given Bazemore is at 36% for his career beyond the arc and hit just 34% in 2019-20, but his defensive versatility will get him on the court either way.
Ariza spent just a season-plus with the Lakers back in the late 2000s, also establishing himself as a 3-and-D role player on a championship team -- he started all 23 playoff games -- before getting paid by the Houston Rockets. Now 36, Ariza showed he had something left in the tank during 27 starts for the Miami Heat after the trade deadline, his first action since the 2019-20 season paused in March.
Ideally, Ariza will be able to handle some of the tougher defensive assignments at forward, taking those off LeBron James' plate much as Shane Battier did back in Miami. Average 3-point shooting would be a bonus.
Lastly, Howard is back for stint No. 3 with the Lakers, the last one resulting in the 2020 title. The Lakers surely regretted moving on from Howard in favor of using their non-taxpayer midlevel exception on Montrezl Harrell a year ago. Given Howard's age (36 in December), the Lakers can't count on him being as effective as he was during the 2019-20 playoffs. At the price, the reunion is still well worth it.
The Lakers still have several of their free agents to deal with, most notably restricted free agent Talen Horton-Tucker. They'll want to either re-sign Markieff Morris or replace him with a power forward who can slide down to center at times as Morris did effectively in the 2020 playoffs. There's more work to be done, but so far, so good for the Lakers filling out the roster after their blockbuster draft night.
With Kyle Lowry, what is Miami's place in the East now?
Miami agreed to trade Precious Achiuwa and Goran Dragic to Toronto for Kyle Lowry, who will join the Heat on a three-year, $90 million deal
Despite the number of teams potentially in the Lowry sweepstakes that created additional cap room with trades last week, the Heat always loomed as the favorite. Lowry's mentality has long seemed like a fit for the vaunted "Heat Culture," and he gets a chance to play with multiple All-Stars in Bam Adebayo and Jimmy Butler while living in Miami.
The interesting question for the Heat, one they apparently weighed up until Sunday's deadline, was how to make an offer to Lowry. Had they declined Dragic's $19.4 million team option and pulled qualifying offers to restricted free agents Kendrick Nunn and Duncan Robinson -- presumably with an agreement in place to re-sign at least one of the two -- Miami could've gotten up to about $26.6 million in cap space, a little less than Lowry's eventual starting price.
What adding Lonzo Ball means for the Bulls
Chicago agreed to trade Tomas Satoransky, Garrett Temple and a second-round pick to New Orleans for Lonzo Ball, who will join the Bulls on a four-year, $85 million deal; Chicago also agreed to sign Alex Caruso to a four-year, $37 million deal
When I put together three-year projections for this summer's free agents based on their statistical performance and the development of similar players at the same age, Ball came out third overall behind future Hall of Famers Kawhi Leonard and Chris Paul.
In part, that's explained by Ball rating better statistically than he has by acclaim during his first four NBA seasons. While detractors (correctly) point to Ball's difficulty scoring out of pick-and-rolls and (now incorrectly) his lack of shooting, his versatility and strong steal and block rates have historically been markers of valuable players.
Additionally, Ball benefits from being years younger than most of the other notable free agents switching teams. A four-year deal takes him only through age 27, the point at which players typically peak.
The Suns are running it back with The Point God
Phoenix agreed to re-sign guard Chris Paul to a four-year deal worth up to $120 million
If we look at this deal in comparison to the alternative scenario of Paul picking up his option and then signing an extension with the Suns starting in 2022-23, he's guaranteed an additional $46 million, or an average of $23 million in new money. That's a reasonable ballpark for what a two-year contract for Paul might have looked like next summer after pricing in the risk of a decline next season.
As important as the money is the fit Paul found in Phoenix, where his veteran presence both on and off the court helped lift the Suns to the Finals for the first time in 28 years. In agreeing to a trade to Phoenix last fall, Paul clearly emphasized the ability to stay near his family home in Los Angeles. All of those were reasons for Paul to sign long term with the Suns rather than looking around in free agency either this summer or next to maximize his salary.
NBA free agency 2021 - Breaking down the most important moves around the league - ESPN
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