Happy Opening Day! We made it. After months of hard work and drafting, the season is finally here. Of course, the baseball gods tried to rain on our parade by sending Adalberto Mondesi to the injured list and providing a COVID-19 scare with the Nationals, but I digress. Let's remain positive. Something you should be excited about is streaming Brad Keller and Matthew Boyd if you like to play that game in daily lineup leagues. Keller faces the Rangers, which is a plus matchup, while Boyd will be pitching in 30-degree weather. That ball isn't flying anywhere.
We also revealed our predictions for the MLB season, including division winners, awards, and the World Series. If you're anything like me, dare to be different! We get it, the Los Angeles Dodgers are awesome -- but so are the Padres, my National League pick. For the American League, let's make Hawk Harrelson proud with the Chicago White Sox. Luis Robert vs. Fernando Tatis. Tell me you wouldn't sign up for that World Series. Nonetheless, enjoy today's podcast and enjoy Opening Day!
And of course, you can subscribe to make sure you get the latest episodes of Fantasy Baseball Today right when they drop on Apple and Spotify.
Mondesi hits the IL
A Chris Towers favorite -- one of his most-drafted Roto players -- Adalberto Mondesi was placed on the IL with a right oblique strain and is expected to miss a couple of weeks (at least). Those who invested in Mondesi in Roto leagues often used a draft-and-forget strategy when it came to stolen bases, assuming a healthy Mondesi could steal enough bags to move any roster into the middle of the pack in a category as depressed as stolen bases. Those managers will have to hope that this is a short stint for Mondesi, but as of now, details on a recovery timeline are sparse.
Mondesi had a strong spring, going 10 for 33 with 2 HR and 2 SB. So the obvious question becomes -- is now the time to buy low on the speedster?
Chris is in on buying low despite the fact that obliques have a high re-injury rate. But if it's just two weeks, he is incredibly valuable. If Chris is trading him, he would need full value in return; on the flip side, he's not looking to move him low now. Chris debuted his trade value chart today and he talked a little bit more about Mondesi's injury impact.
The Royals already announced that Nicky Lopez will start at shortstop with Kyle Isbel starting in RF. Isbel is a former third-round pick from 2018 who also had a strong spring. In 123 career minor league games, Isbel batted .284 with 14 HR and 35 SB. He's a name to monitor in deeper leagues.
Scott outlined how Isbel's lack of a minor-league track record makes him no more than a super deep league flier despite his strong spring.
And for those wondering if this will accelerate top prospect Bobby Witt's timeline? We all agree that a short-term injury like this one won't have any impact on Witt's timeline.
If you were counting on Mondesi for speed, here are a few free-agent options you can target that could be on your waiver wire:
Other news and notes
- Deja vu. The Washington Nationals had a positive COVID test and five close contacts who are now in quarantine. If you remember last year, Juan Soto had a positive test the day before the season as well. Nationals GM Mike Rizzo said this will "certainly" impact the Opening Day roster so there could be some big names involved here. Jon Heyman reported that Max Scherzer is not one of them and is cleared to start against the Mets. That game starts at 7:09 p.m. ET so we should get the lineup well before then. If you're planning to start Nationals players, this is a story you'll want to track.
- Joe Girardi announced Wednesday that Hector Neris will be the Phillies closer with Archie Bradley and Jose Alvarado being used in setup roles. Neris is only 33% rostered in CBS leagues. You should rush to your waiver wire to scoop him. He's not a lock to keep the job for six months but he's certainly in that top-16 range given the state of closer right now.
- Andrew Vaughn will not be in the White Sox Opening Day Lineup. ARE YOU SERIOUS!? One of our collective favorite sleepers and now he won't even make the Opening Day lineup? Leury Garcia will play in LF, Zack Collins at DH. Now is not the time to panic on Vaughn, however. Scott would not be benching Vaughn for this -- specifically not in leagues where you'll be playing in an 11-game extended week.
- Presumed Reds SP Michael Lorenzen had a small setback with his right shoulder strain, while Sonny Gray is expected back from his mid-back strain sometime in mid-April.
- As expected, Jonathan India will be with the Reds on Opening Day and likely starting at second base. Joey Votto, who's still working his way back from COVID, is currently TBD. We will find out more during the afternoon.
- Luis Garcia was named the fifth starting pitcher for the Houston Astros. He actually has stellar numbers in his minor league career, bouncing between the bullpen and rotation: 2.50 ERA, 1.17 WHIP, 284 K in 205 IP. He is 10% rostered and has SPARP eligibility. Chris has been adding Garcia in points leagues to use as a SPARP. If you're in a H2H points league and you didn't invest in closers, he makes for a nice speculative add right now.
- Jake Odorizzi is unlikely to make his season debut until April 13 at the earliest as he continues to ramp up. He got off to a late start because he didn't sign until early March.
- Reminder: Aroldis Chapman is suspended for the first two games of the season, which means Chad Green would earn save opportunities if need be.
Placed on IR
- George Springer, OF, Blue Jays (oblique)
- Robbie Ray, SP, Blue Jays (bruised elbow)
- Mike Soroka, SP, Braves (Achilles)
- Luke Voit, 1B, Yankees (knee)
- Kyle Lewis, OF, Mariners (knee)
Good to go for Opening Day
To stream or not to stream (these SPs)
- John Means, BAL at BOS. Scott named Means a sleeper, but that doesn't mean he's going to move him all the way up from the bench into his lineup in front of pitchers he drafted ahead of him. Scott advises to wait this out.
- Nathan Eovaldi, BOS vs. BAL. Chris would prefer to stream Eovaldi over Means for the strikeout upside.
- Brad Keller, KC vs. TEX. Keller is the top streaming option for both Chris and Scott over both Eovaldi and Means.
- Matthew Boyd, DET vs. CLE. Boyd is an interesting stream play in a game where the weather is expected to play a factor in keeping the scoring down.
- Chad Kuhl, PIT at CHC. This is a no go. Do not stream.
- Kyle Gibson, TEX at KC. Another no-go. Do not stream!
What to watch for on Opening Day
Chris broke down at length the six burning questions we'll need to get (and hopefully will get) answers to on Opening Day and in Week 1. The biggest thing you'll want to watch for is that we might have evidence about the new baseball and what kind of impact it will have on the baseball landscape.
However, according to data from The Ringer, while there has been more drag, the evidence suggests on batted balls hit over 100 MPH with a 24-32 degree launch angle, they travel 10 feet less, but the problem is that it's adding about 1 MPH to exit velocity on average. The net effect so far appears to be the ball is bouncier and the overall impact was the highest home run rate ever in spring training. This has also added movement on both fastball and curveballs. The leaguewide strikeout late was 25% this spring and in the last 30 years there has only been one season where the strikeout rate was lower in the regular season than in spring training.
The end result? Early evidence suggests we'll have more strikeouts and more home runs per batted ball this season.
Scott jumped on this immediately to say the gap between the stud SPs and the duds will widen and that makes him very happy given his strategy this entire draft season!
Chris Towers' season-long predictions
AL East: Yankees, Blue Jays (WC), Rays, Red Sox, Orioles
AL Central: Cleveland, Twins, White Sox, Royals, Tigers
AL West: Astros, Angels (WC), Mariners, Athletics, Rangers
NL East: Mets, Braves (WC), Nationals, Phillies, Marlins
NL Central: Brewers, Cubs, Cardinals, Reds, Pirates
NL West: Dodgers, Padres (WC), Giants, Diamondbacks, Rockies
ALCS: Yankees over Angels
NLCS: Dodgers over Padres
WS: Dodgers over Yankees
AL MVP: Mike Trout
NL MVP: Juan Soto
AL CY: Gerrit Cole
NL CY: Jacob deGrom
AL ROY: Taylor Trammell
NL ROY: Ian Anderson
Scott White's season-long predictions
AL East: Yankees, Blue Jays (WC), Rays, Red Sox ,Orioles
AL Central: White Sox, Twins (WC), Cleveland, Royals, Tigers
AL West: Astros, Athletics, Angels, Mariners, Rangers
NL East: Braves, Mets (WC), Nationals, Phillies, Marlins
NL Central: Reds, Cardinals, Brewers, Cubs, Pirates
NL West: Dodgers, Padres (WC), Giants, Diamondbacks, Rockies
ALCS: Yankees over White Sox
NLCS: Dodgers over Braves
WS: Dodgers over Yankees
AL MVP: Shohei Ohtani
NL MVP: Corey Seager
AL CY: Shane Bieber
NL CY: Jacob deGrom
AL ROY: Randy Arozarena
NL ROY: Ke'Bryan Hayes
Frank Stampfl's season-long predictions
AL East: Yankees, Blue Jays, Rays, Red Sox, Orioles
AL Central: White Sox, Twins (WC), Cleveland, Royals, Tigers
AL West: Athletics, Astros (WC), Angels, Mariners, Rangers
NL East: Braves, Mets (WC), Phillies, Nationals, Marlins
NL Central: Cardinals, Brewers, Reds, Cubs, Pirates
NL West: Padres, Dodgers (WC), Giants, Diamondbacks, Rockies
ALCS: White Sox over Yankees
NLCS: Padres over Dodgers
WS: White Sox over Padres
AL MVP: Tim Anderson
NL MVP: Fernando Tatis
AL CY: Gerrit Cole
NL CY: Jacob deGrom
AL ROY: Jarred Kelenic
NL ROY: Ke'Bryan Hayes
Fantasy Baseball 2021: Adalberto Mondesi injury advice, Nationals COVID concerns, Phillies pick closer, more - CBS Sports
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