TAMPA — To triumph at the news conference, he first had to admit defeat. In that sense, Todd Bowles nailed it, with candor and conciseness.
“I blew it,” the new Bucs coach said Thursday.
Know this about 58-year-old Todd Robert Bowles: While different in myriad ways from immediate predecessor Bruce Arians, they share the blunt gene. It’s a trait generally appreciated by fans.
That is why the married dad of three boys likely won points his first day on the job by readily acknowledging the failure of the Bucs’ final defensive play of the 2021 season in the NFC division playoff game against the Rams.
Instead of dancing around or dodging the question of why he called for a cover-zero, all-out blitz of Matthew Stafford — resulting in the Rams quarterback finding NFL Offensive Player of the Year Cooper Kupp isolated downfield for a 44-yard completion — the former NFL safety tackled it helmet first.
“We were trying to win,” said Bowles, whose strategy resulted in Matt Gay kicking a 30-yard field goal as time expired to lift Los Angeles to a 30-27 triumph.
“I will never apologize for trying to win. If I didn’t call zone and (Stafford) got the play off, you’ll say I should’ve blitzed. ‘We blitz all the time, how come we didn’t blitz?’ That’s part of football, that’s coaching. You have to learn to make peace and live with it.”
Less than 24 hours before Bowles’ introduction as the franchise’s 13th head coach — and its fourth Black head coach — Bowles had remained the convenient scapegoat for one of the most excruciating losses the bay area had experienced.
On Thursday, the day after the Bucs announced that Arians was vacating the head-coaching job for a front-office spot, Bowles still was processing that he had been afforded a second act as an NFL head coach after leading the Jets from 2015-18, with a five-year contract to boot.
“A lot of people had to be in agreement for this to happen. It’s not a one-man show,” Bowles said of the succession plan allowing Arians to pass the torch to the New Jersey native he has known since 1983, when Arians first coached him at Temple.
“I feel very humble, I feel very honored, I feel very excited. I’m ready to go, and we’ll try to get this thing rolling.”
If nothing else, Bowles will roll his own way.
Todd Bowles speaks about his opportunity to lead the Bucs. Former head coach Bruce Arians said Bowles is replacing him as part of a succession plan that had been in the works a few weeks. [ DOUGLAS CLIFFORD | Times ]
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Unlike Arians, who made ‘Win or lose, we booze’ a half-serious mantra on his watch, Bowles doesn’t drink or do cigars. And whereas Arians’ practice reprimands were laced with profanities, Bowles is more likely to point out player deficiencies with dry sarcasm.
“I think if I tried to put on a Kangol hat and came in here and grew my goatee (Arians trademarks), you guys would look at me like I’m crazy,” Bowles said. " ‘Look at this clown, he’s mini Bruce.’ I can’t do that, and I’m not going to. I’m not going to try.”
Arians didn’t orchestrate this succession plan — which Bowles didn’t learn about until Monday — to replace himself with a clone. He knew that Bowles’ style, combined with his football intuition and the lessons he learned with the Jets, with whom he went 24-40 before being fired, gave him every chance to succeed.
The Bucs’ offseason developments, namely Tom Brady’s unretirement and the subsequent re-signing of several key free agents, have optimized those chances.
“(Bowles has) been probably the brightest guy I’ve ever coached,” Arians said. “And I think he, as a player-coach, (offensive coordinator) Byron (Leftwich) as a player-coach, they just had it. You knew they had it.”
By all accounts, that “it” factor is endearing.
“He’s a phenomenal person, great family man, talks about his family all the time,” general manager Jason Licht said.
“He’s a mentor to a lot of people in this building, not just the players, but other coaches, staff members. You often find people in his office, just him offering advice on how to just be a better person.”
Because he now must answer for the Bucs’ offense and monitor it in practice, Bowles said that defensive line coach Kacy Rodgers and outside linebackers coach Larry Foote will serve as co-defensive coordinators, though Bowles still will call things on game days.
And while he won’t disrupt the dynamic fostered by Leftwich and Brady, he’ll interject where he sees fit.
“I’m the head coach,” Bowles said. “I get to do whatever I want.”
Quarterback Tom Brady, who recently came out of a short retirement, attends Thursday's news conference introducing new head coach Todd Bowles. [ DOUGLAS CLIFFORD | Times ]
The blunt gene at work.
“My way is not rocket science,” he said. “It’s like every other coach: You coach hard, you understand players, you try to put them in the best position to play football.
“So I’m not trying to change the program, but you try to say you’ve got to be yourself. You try to imitate somebody else, it doesn’t go well.”
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Sure, it happened in just about the most uninspiring way imaginable: a 2-0 loss at Costa Rica that saw Los Ticos fans chanting "¡Olé!" as their defenders passed the ball to each other. But the United States men's national team did the thing that they hadn't been able to do in eight years and the thing that they might not really ever need to worry about doing again: They qualified for the World Cup!
With the USMNT automatically qualifying as joint hosts alongside Canada and Mexico for the 2026 World Cup and the tournament expanding to 48 teams next time around, this was the last truly grueling, geometrically organized qualifying campaign for the Americans. So, let's take a look at eight key numbers from the first and only Octagonal. Here's how the USMNT made it back to soccer's biggest stage:
1.8
On the surface, it doesn't look all that great -- third place, behind both a Canada team that hasn't been to a World Cup since DVDs were invented and a Mexico side that's seemingly on the verge of crisis at halftime of every match. Overall, the USMNT's results were ... fine. Here's how they compare to every qualification campaign since the 1994 World Cup:
In the six qualification tournaments before Gregg Berhalter took over as manager, the USMNT averaged 1.8 points per game. In the one qualification tournament after Berhalter took over ... the USMNT averaged 1.8 points per game. Given that this is the most talented U.S. squad ever and that two extra teams in the qualification pool should have watered down the competition, just hitting the average might feel like a bit of a disappointment. But there's very little correlation between performance in qualifying and World Cup success; the USMNT's one run to the quarterfinals came in 2002, after a poor CONCACAF run that produced just 1.7 points per game and came down to the last day. On top of all that, there's also plenty to suggest that Berhalter's team was better than the results suggested.
0.8
A lot of weird stuff can happen across 14 games. Pick any 14-game sample across a Premier League season and you'll be able to convince yourself that, say, Liverpool are losing it and Wolverhampton Wanderers are winning it all. In a low-scoring game like soccer, it takes a lot of games for a team's true performance level to match up with their results.
To start with, let's just look at goals: scored, conceded, and then subtracted from each other. Going back to '98 again:
This time around, the USMNT scored 21 goals (second to Canada) and conceded 10 (fourth after Canada, Mexico, and Costa Rica.) It's a plus-11 goal differential through 14 games, or a per-game goal differential of plus-0.8. Only Canada (plus-16, plus-1.1 per game) produced a better mark in the Octagonal, and only one of the previous six American teams outscored their opponents at a higher clip than Berhalter's side just did.
0.96
Stats Perform only provides expected goals data going back to 2014 for CONCACAF qualifying, but it's still useful to take a look since 2014 was the USMNT's best qualifying run from a points perspective. Dig a little deeper, though, and some of the warning signings for the rest of Jurgen Klinsmann's reign were already there.
In 2014 qualification, the team's per-game xG differential was just plus-0.26. In fact, it was better in 2018 (plus-0.4) despite, you know, Couva and all that. This cycle, the number leapt all the way up to plus-0.96, which, for some context, is what you'd expect from one of Europe's elite club teams. The competition isn't comparable, but in aggregate terms of creating and preventing chances, the U.S. dominated CONCACAF in the same way that, say, Paris Saint-Germain might do in Ligue 1.
Overall, the USMNT both created the most xG in the Octagonal (23.3) and conceded the fewest (9.8). Strip out penalties, which can be a little unpredictable, and the same remains true:
Despite the best underlying numbers in the competition, they finished third. What gives? The xG is a much truer representation of the team's quality than their points total; the USMNT did the repeatable thing -- creating and suppressing chances -- better than everyone else, while the volatile thing -- finishing the chances -- didn't always go their way. But there is one other explanation.
1.46
Despite what you see in the chart above, Costa Rica finished ahead of Panama. The main reason for the discrepancy, as the USMNT experienced Wednesday, is that Costa Rica is the only team in the region with a world-class goalkeeper. Keylor Navas faced 42 on-target shots in the Octagonal, and he conceded six goals. Based on the quality of the shots he faced, Stats Perform's model would expect the average keeper to concede 10.97 goals. So, Navas essentially saved Costa Rica 4.97 goals.
Meanwhile, the opposite was happening at the opposite end of the field in San Jose. With the two goals allowed against Costa Rica, Zack Steffen wrapped up qualifying with five goals allowed from just 18 shots on target. Facing the same shots that Steffen did, the average keeper would be expected to concede 3.54 goals, based on the model. That negative discrepancy of 1.46 goals was the second-worst in the Octagonal, despite Steffen only appearing in six matches.
These are all the shots he faced, sized by the quality of the chance:
Meanwhile, Matt Turner, who started the eight other matches, conceded five goals from shots the average keeper would be expected to concede 5.81 goals from. He basically saved an extra goal for the Americans:
Coming into qualification, there were theoretical arguments for both keepers: Turner was a much better shot-stopper than Steffen, but Steffen's distribution skills were way better than Turner's. The past 14 games absolutely confirmed the former, but have done very little to suggest that there's much value in the latter. The choice between the two seems pretty clear at this point, but the last time both players were fully healthy, Berhalter went with Steffen. Will he change his mind over the next eight months? And more importantly, can he afford not to?
84.3
Just as everyone predicted back in September, Fulham full-back Antonee Robinson was the USMNT's most important player during qualifying. The back-flipping, self-proclaimed Jedi appeared in 84.3% of the Octagonal minutes, more than any other player. He led the team in both chances created and expected assists.
Those numbers are boosted a bit by all the minutes he played. Among guys with at least 200 minutes, he was fifth in chances created per 90 minutes (1.5) and seventh in expected assists per 90 (0.18). But in the minutes that Robinson wasn't on the field during qualifying, the team didn't score a goal and they conceded twice. He's not a star -- or even really a potential star -- like other players on the roster, but he's emerged to lock down a problem spot in the starting eleven that's plagued the USMNT pretty much ever since the modern emergence of the fullback as a key tactical role.
8.8
Before qualifying started, Tyler Adams seemed like perhaps the least reliable among the USMNT's quintet of Champions League starters. Not as a player, but as just simply as someone you could expect to be on the field. After featuring in 76% of the minutes in his final season with the New York Red Bulls in 2018, he's played just 40% of the available Bundesliga minutes since joining RB Leipzig.
Somehow, though, the USMNT's qualification campaign coincided with one of the healthiest runs of Adams's career. He was the only player other than Robinson to feature in at least 80% of the Octagonal minutes. Among players who appeared in at least five matches, he unsurprisingly led the team in interceptions (2.8) and tackles (6.0) per every 1,000 opponent touches.
The team just doesn't have another player who can do anything close to what he does -- sweeping in behind the attacking line in possession, rarely turning the ball over, and extinguishing any counterattacks that cross midfield. The team scored three goals and conceded four in the 20% of qualifying minutes without Adams on the field. He's the most important player on the team.
50
For all the talk of the USMNT wanting to dominate with the ball, the results have been better without it. As The Athletic's John Muller pointed out after the Panama match, Berhalter's team simply wins more games when they have less possession. After the Costa Rica match, the USMNT ended qualifying with 1.5 points per game and a plus-0.2 goal differential per game in the 10 matches during which they had at least 50 percent of the possession. In the other four: 2.5 points and a plus-2.3 goal differential per game.
But that doesn't quite tell the whole story. Measured by their xG differential, four of the USMNT's worst five games came in matches when they had at least 60% of the ball, but their best game was the 3-0 win over Honduras. In that one, they had 72% of the ball -- more than any other match. Although the score lines don't suggest it, the U.S. dominated the balance of chances at home against El Salvador, Costa Rica, and Jamaica, while also dominating at least 60% of the ball.
More than anything, what this shows is that the USMNT still doesn't really have a clear identity or style of play. That might not necessarily be a bad thing, but Berhalter's side has a vacillated from a team that looked like it only wanted to play in transition to a trigger-happy press-all-the-time-whirlwind to a slow-moving possession machine that tried to create space with horizontal ball movement. In the draw in Mexico, they passed the ball forward with 49% of all of their passes. In the draw to Canada, just 25% of their passes were played forward.
According to Stats Perform, the USMNT were the only team in CONCACAF not to attempt a shot from a fast-break situation. And despite attempting the second-most shots overall, they generated just the fifth-most shots from set pieces. With attacking space at a premium in the international game, it'll be a lot easier to make a run in Qatar if they up the ante from dead balls and start clicking whenever they do have room to run.
0
Sergino Dest, Weston McKennie, Christian Pulisic, Giovanni Reyna and Tyler Adams still haven't played a single minute together for the USMNT. With five stars waffling in and out of the lineup, it's a little easier to understand why the team's approach has changed so much from game to game. You just shouldn't be asking Paul Arriola or DeAndre Yedlin to do the same things you'd be asking from Reyna and Dest.
In fact, outside of Adams, none of these other guys even appeared in half of the qualifying minutes. Get all of them healthy at the same time, and this is automatically a significantly better team than the one we saw in qualifying. Forget Berhalter's tactics or whoever you think the backup right-back should be or even what needs to happen with the concept of "a striker." The health and development of these five players will have a bigger effect on the USMNT's performance in Qatar than anything else.
One of the reasons that's true, though, is because of the shape the roster has taken around them. In addition to Antonee Robinson, Miles Robinson and Walker Zimmerman have formed a solid-if-unexpected first-choice center back duo, with, theoretically, a pair of Bundesliga defenders (Chris Richards and maybe John Brooks) backing them up. Then, in the midfield, Yunus Musah went from a fledgling prospect who wasn't doing much as a winger for Valencia to a ball-carrying center-midfield dynamo for the USMNT. He didn't play in the Nations League less than a year ago, and now he's a key piece for Berhalter's group.
Players like Timothy Weah, Brenden Aaronson, Kellyn Acosta, Luca de la Torre, and even the aforementioned Arriola have also provided solid-to-good minutes. And while most of the options deployed at striker have struggled, Jesus Ferreira led all CONCACAF players with at least 200 minutes played in both non-penalty xG (0.91) and xA (0.41) in qualifying. He was brilliant in limited minutes; will Berhalter take notice?
All of those names, too, are in either their peak or pre-peak years. Weighted by minutes played, the USMNT's average age (24.3) was three years younger than any of the other teams in the Octagonal.
A lot can happen in eight months, but the immediate mission -- make it to Qatar -- has been accomplished. And because of the age of the roster and the potential for increased availability of the team's stars, it's likely to only get better from here.
But a huge part of the Final Four teams' success is the frontcourt, too. Each team uses its big men in different ways, setting up for a pair of fascinating Final Four matchups.
On Jan. 23, 2021, Mark Williams registered the only DNP of his college career, not seeing even a second of action in a loss to Louisville. It was Blue Devils' third straight defeat, and Williams had totaled just four minutes across those three contests.
Less than two months later, Duke faced Louisville again, this time in the ACC Tournament. Williams was dominant: 23 points, 19 rebounds (seven offensive), a block and a steal in a Duke victory. Duke's season ended abruptly less than 24 hours later after a positive COVID-19 test within the program, but Williams had officially arrived. It turned out that was just the beginning.
This year, Williams won ACC Defensive Player of the Year, and he is a finalist for Naismith Trophy Men's Defensive Player of the Year. He is ninth in the nation in blocks per game, and he holds opponents to 32% shooting when they post up against him, the third-lowest percentage of any defender in Division I. He's doing this all while committing fouls at a lower rate than last year, too.
"He has really increased his lateral movement -- his ability to guard side-to-side," Mike Krzyzewski said Tuesday. "As a result, he's able to get to balls better. Length doesn't necessarily get you to a ball. Lateral movement does."
That improvement was especially on display in the Sweet 16 and the Elite Eight. In those rounds, Duke faced two very good, versatile big men in Texas Tech'sBryson Williams and Arkansas' Jaylin Williams. They went a combined 2-13 with a turnover when defended by Mark Williams.
"He is a hell of a defensive player," Jeremy Roach said after the Elite Eight win. "Love having him on the court. Makes it so much easier for the guards to really try to pressure the ball. They really don't have to worry if a guy gets past you, you know big fella is always back there to back you up. He is a huge part of this team. We wouldn't be here without him."
Williams has been outstanding on the offensive end, too. He's shooting 76% around the basket on non post-ups, fifth in all of Division I (min. 100 FGA) and nearly 5% better than last year. His 139.5 offensive rating ranks second in all of Division I. Williams, quite simply, has become a force on both ends.
UNC: Bacot makes leap after Tar Heels change offense
With 20 points and 22 rebounds against Saint Peter's in the Elite Eight, Armando Bacot made two types of history:
He was the first player with 20 and 20 in the Elite Eight or later since Hakeem (then Akeem) Olajuwon in 1983.
It was Bacot's 29th double-double of the season, tying Tim Duncan's record from 1996-97 for most by an ACC player.
That's pretty good company.
Furthermore, Bacot's 30.1 defensive rebounding percentage this season is the second-best by any ACC player since 2004, and his 114 second-chance points are third in Division I this season behind Purdue'sZach Edey and Kentucky'sOscar Tshiebwe.
Bacot's always been a solid rebounder and post player on both ends, but this year he's expanded his game to the pick-and-roll as well. It's something he rarely did under Roy Williams -- who almost always had two traditional big men on the floor -- but has opened up for him with the Tar Heels playing a four-out offense under Hubert Davis.
BACOT AS A PICK-AND-ROLL ROLLER
Possessions
Points
2019-20
26
24
2020-21
5
11
2021-22
69
80
The last clip in particular is a perfect encapsulation of Bacot's growth and how UNC's changes have helped him grow. Bacot catches the ball on the move, dribbles twice with his non-dominant hand, spins, pivots and then scores, but notice how Baylor defended this play. Brady Manek (No. 45 for UNC) is a terrific outside shooter, so Jeremy Sochan (No. 1 for Baylor) can't double-team Bacot. With a more traditional post player on the floor (instead of Manek), Bacot would have had neither the time nor the space to score this type of basket.
"I've said this before: The chemistry between Armando and Brady has worked from Day One," Davis said last week. "It just has. They just play off of each other. Their skills complement each other. Their personalities complement each other. When they're out there on the floor, we are at our best."
Thanks to a major offense change, Bacot has emerged as a dominant player, and, because of that, North Carolina is two games away from a title.
Villanova: Strength, basketball IQ over height
Villanova has two holdovers from the 2018 national championship team: Gillespie and Jermaine Samuels, who is scoring 17.5 points per game on 63% shooting in the NCAA Tournament after 10.2 and 45%, respectively, prior this season. Samuels plays both center and power forward and is a difficult matchup given his diverse offensive skill set.
Bill Self, whose Kansas Jayhawks face Samuel on Saturday, knows that first-hand. Samuels had 15 points -- including three 3-pointers -- in their 2019 meeting.
"He definitely presents problems," Self said Tuesday. "In that game he beat us off the catch, but what he can really do is beat you off the bounce. He's a tremendous driver of the ball and a good shooter."
While Samuels' offense has blossomed in the NCAA Tournament, defense remains the strength of his game. Consider this: 280 Division-I players defended at least 25 isolation possessions this season. Of those 280, only one -- Texas A&M'sHenry Coleman III -- has allowed fewer points per possession in those scenarios than Samuels. He is the perfect defender for Villanova's switch-heavy system and can (and will) guard every position
With Samuels at 6-7 and center Eric Dixon at 6-8, Villanova ranks 265th in Division I in KenPom.com's "Effective Height" metric, which is a weighted average of power forward and center heights. However, they more than make up for that with excellence in other areas.
"They have the physical strength to hold their ground," Jay Wright said Monday. "They have the athleticism to pursue rebounds and defend personnel, and I think they have the basketball IQ that, in relation to their position, is very, very high."
Kansas: McCormack rises to the occasion
Kansas trailed Miami 35-29 at halftime Sunday. The Jayhawks were disjointed offensively against an aggressive, active Miami defense.
Then David McCormack went to work: a free throw to open the second half-scoring, followed by a monstrous fastbreak dunk, a tough fadeaway jumper and finally a strong putback layup through a foul. After McCormack finished off the old-fashioned three-point play, Kansas' six-point halftime deficit had become an eight-point lead.
It wasn't the first time McCormack came up big this March. He also registered 18 points and 11 rebounds in the Jayhawks' Big 12 Tournament title game win over Texas Tech.
"I thought going into the season, David McCormack would be the key player for us, and now I think it's obviously David and Remy, because when they play at a high level, then it totally changes our team probably as much as anybody else," Self said.
McCormack's 174 points off post-ups are by far the most of any Big 12 player this season, and while his efficiency has been down compared to past years, he still has the ability to score in bunches. Watch his versatility down low in the aforementioned Texas Tech game, against arguably the best paint defense in the country.
"David's the one guy that can come away with 15 (points) and 10 (rebounds) and not have to be his best, because he has a natural knack for getting the ball in the basket when he catches it in tight," Self said. "We need David to play well, there's no question about it."
Bruce Arians said Thursday that it was always his dream to hand a head-coaching job to a member of his staff and that reports of friction between himself and Tom Brady "couldn't be further from the truth."
Arians, who will be moving into the Tampa Bay Buccaneers' front office this season while defensive coordinator Todd Bowles takes over as head coach, also said his family played a big part in his decision and there was "no better time than right now" to make the move.
"A number of people have already asked, 'Why are you stepping away from a chance to go to the Hall of Fame and win another Super Bowl?' Because I don't give a s--- about the Hall of Fame," Arians, 69, said during Thursday's news conference. "Succession is way important to me. This has been my dream for a long time. Guys that know me, they knew I wanted one of my guys to take over."
He said that he first started thinking about leaving his post as Buccaneers head coach after the season but it wasn't the right time. He said once Brady announced that he was ending his brief retirement to return to the Bucs, the decision was easy and there was "no better time to pass the torch than now."
Brady attended Thursday's news conference and was seated in the front row. Arians said he has a "great relationship" with the team's star quarterback.
"All the players -- there are a few in here -- everyone of them has gotten cussed out. Including him," Arians said, pointing to Brady. "That's just part of me. That's nothing new. We have a great relationship. ... People got to write s---. It couldn't be further from the truth."
Arians went 31-18 (.633) in three campaigns with Tampa Bay, the highest win percentage of any coach in Buccaneers history, and led the team to victory in Super Bowl LV following the 2020 season. He won five playoff games with the Bucs; the previous Tampa Bay coaches won six combined. The Buccaneers announced Thursday that Arians will be added to the team's Ring of Honor this season.
This will be Bowles' second head-coaching job, and Arians called Bowles' second chance "long overdue." Bowles, 58, was previously the head coach of the New York Jets from 2015 to 2018, when he went 24-40. He also was interim coach for the Miami Dolphins in 2011.
"Usually, when people get fired, they blame everyone else. The first thing I did was look within myself," Bowles said when asked about what he learned from his time as Jets coach. "There are a lot of things I can do better."
Bowles said he was looking forward to having Brady as his quarterback, a luxury he didn't have with the Jets when he had to face him twice a season while Brady was with the New England Patriots.
"I think the world of the guy. I think we're more alike than you can ever know," he said.
As for succeeding Arians, Bowles said, "I'm just going to be me. I cannot be him," but said he plans to take Arians' advice as well as the advice from the other coaches on his staff.
He added, "When I first started in New York, you try to do things the right way and you don't do it your way, you end up having regret. So I'm going to do it my way."
Bowles said Thursday that Larry Foote and Kacy Rodgers will be the Bucs' co-defensive coordinators this season. Bowles, however, will continue to call the defensive plays this season.
Ten years ago in New Orleans, as bitter rivals warmed up before their unthinkable national semifinal showdown, Louisville director of basketball operations Mark Lieberman and Kentucky assistant coach Orlando Antigua met at halfcourt to shake hands and expel some nervous energy. They looked around the Superdome, stuffed to the rafters with some 73,000 people whose anxiety was as thick as Louisiana humidity, and came to one tension-breaking conclusion.
“If there was ever a time to rob a bank in Kentucky, this is it,” Lieberman remembers joking. “Everybody in the state was either in that building or at home watching the game. That was the night to commit a crime.”
Take note, Duke and North Carolina. When you meet your archnemesis in the Final Four, this is what it looks like: In the days leading up to the Cats-Cards collision in 2012, two men at a dialysis clinic, one already hooked up to the machine, got in a fistfight over their allegiances. So, yeah, we’ve done Basketball Armageddon before. And in the same city, no less. Kinda makes sense when you think about it. If the world is going to end, might as well be on Bourbon Street, numb to the pain with a strand of Mardi Gras beads in one hand and a Pat O’Brien’s hurricane in the other.
“What I remember was the palpable energy in the arena right before tip,” Antigua says. “The intensity was vibrating in there. You could just feel it in the building, the anticipation. It’s hard to describe. Just like, ‘OK, here we go.’ Like you’re at the top of a roller coaster, looking down like, ‘Holy shit, that’s steep.’”
Shawn Perry watched the game at home alone, because the lifelong Kentucky fan couldn’t risk friends and family talking over the television broadcast — or sitting on the remote and accidentally changing the channel at a critical moment.
Rich Ohrnberger, a former NFL player turned sports host, alleged back in February how the relationship between Arians and Tom Brady “was souring,” and if that factored into the quarterback’s decision to retire after 22 seasons. At the time, Ohrnberger claimed that Brady and offensive coordinator Byron Leftwich “felt undermined” when Arians — who was reportedly rehabbing his Achilles in the early mornings — “would later come in and take the red pen to work they’d done” on game planning.
Bruce Arians (here with Tom Brady in November 2021) announced Wednesday, March 30, 2022, that he’s stepping down as the Buccaneers’ head coachGetty Images
Though it’s unclear what happened behind closed doors in Tampa, the move by Arians to the front office comes a few weeks after Brady un-retired. The seven-time Super Bowl champ — who has been the subject of trade rumors this offseason — was told about Arians’ decision “either the same day or a day after the quarterback announced he was ending his retirement,” according to the Tampa Bay Times.
Rich Ohrnberger reported of alleged tension between Tom Brady and Bruce Arians back in FebruaryGetty Images
Arians told Pro Football Talk and the Los Angeles Times how Brady’s return impacted his decision to change course professionally.
“Tom was kind of the key. When Tom decided to come back … and all of these guys back now, it’s the perfect timing for me just to go into the front office and still have the relationships that I love,” he said Wednesday.
Brady and Arians chat on the field ahead of a Buccaneers game in October 2021Icon Sportswire via Getty Images
“It seems like there’s one (story) every day now,” Arians told the Tampa Bay Times in February. “Everybody is speculating he’s going somewhere else. That doesn’t bother me. This other bull—t, the relationship thing, that’s so far-fetched.”
Regardless of whether tension existed or not, Brady did tip his hat to Arians on Wednesday night in an Instagram tribute.
“Thank you, BA for all that you have done for me and our team. You are an incredible man and coach, and it was a privilege to play for you,” Brady wrote, among other accolades, to which Arians replied, “Thanks brotha.”
Arians and Bowles are expected to address the media Thursday.
Pro-Bowl linebacker Bobby Wagner will be staying in the NFC West next season despite his release by the Seattle Seahawks earlier this month.
Wagner agreed to terms on a five-year contract with the Super Bowl champion Los Angeles Rams, the team announced Thursday.
Financial terms were not disclosed, but sources told ESPN's Adam Schefter the deal is for $50 million and can be worth up to $65 million if Wagner reaches incentives.
It will mark a homecoming for Wagner, who was born in Los Angeles. Wagner becomes the latest big-name player to join a star-studded Rams defense that already includes defensive tackle Aaron Donald and cornerback Jalen Ramsey.
The Baltimore Ravens also were in the mix to sign Wagner before he decided to sign with the Rams.
Wagner, 31, was the last remaining member of the star-studded defenses that led Seattle to its lone world championship and a return trip to Super Bowl XLIX after the 2014 season.
Wagner, the Seahawks' all-time tackles leader with 1,383, is coming off a 170-tackle season that earned him his eighth Pro Bowl nod in 10 seasons. He posted that personal best despite missing all but one snap of the final two games with a knee sprain.
While Wagner didn't make as many impact plays as in some of his best seasons, he recorded an interception, a sack, a forced fumble and five passes defended in 2021 en route to a second-team All-Pro selection.
In 2020, Wagner was one of 22 defenders named by the Pro Football Hall of Fame to the All-Decade Team for the 2010s. His Hall of Fame-worthy résumé also includes six first-team All-Pro selections, two second-team All-Pro selections and eight Pro Bowls nods, tied for second most in franchise history.
ESPN's Brady Henderson contributed to this report.
As explained in my Mock Draft 1.0, I always look to maximize each selection according to win-share value added for the upcoming season. Of course, my approach simultaneously factors in the free agency/trade acquisitions that have already occurred, as well as those that could be coming down the pike. And no, I do not allow myself to trade picks.
With all of that in mind -- and with the flurry of activity that has already reshuffled rosters across the NFL -- I had something pretty interesting happen in this first-round simulation, something that's never happened before in all the years I've been modeling drafts in this manner:
Zero quarterbacks are selected in the following 32 picks.
Admittedly, this is HIGHLY unlikely to occur on April 28. This league is just too quarterback-obsessed, with a number of teams looking for a long-term solution at the position. In fact, my models -- which estimate where players will actually go -- put the odds that at least three quarterbacks are drafted in the first round at 71.1 percent, and four at 58.6 percent.
But in the following exercise, the game's most important position is completely absent from Round 1, providing a different-looking rundown than you're accustomed to -- which is fine! Use this mock as an opportunity to weigh short-term vs. long-term strategies.
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Michigan·Edge · Senior
Since my first mock draft came out in February, the Jaguars have franchise-tagged tackle Cam Robinson and signed guard Brandon Scherff in free agency, increasing the value of the O-line and shifting the optimal win-share selection to the best edge rusher available (Hutchinson). Last season, no team forced fewer turnovers than the Jags (nine). Hutchinson turned in three games this past season with at least three sacks, including the Ohio State game. Pairing him with Josh Allen could work wonders for the Jaguars' defense.
Notre Dame·S · Junior
I had an edge rusher here (Hutchinson) in my last mock, so I realize it might seem odd that I now have Detroit taking a safety -- a position often regarded as ranking outside of the top five in terms of priority (QB, pass rusher, LT, WR, CB). But my second-ranked pass rusher (Kayvon Thibodeaux) doesn't offer the same win-share value for the Lions as Hamilton does in 2022. Hamilton's versatility makes him the best selection for Detroit at No. 2 overall, as he has the potential to impact several phases of the game and areas of the field. My favorite Hamilton stat? Computer Vision shows he ranks in the 95th percentile in body control (eight-year sample) in plays that resulted in the following: interceptions, pass breakups, effective blitzing and shutting down outside pass catchers and slot pass catchers.
Alabama·OT · Junior
Lining up with Laremy Tunsil on the left and Neal on the right changes the tackle box for a team with a laundry list of needs. Neal is my model’s highest-rated tackle, especially on passing downs. The Texans are flush with draft capital after tradingDeshaun Watson, so it's not hard to imagine them moving all over the board.
N.C. State·OT · Junior
Another duplicate pick here from Mock 1.0, especially with the Giants front office telling us they aren't shopping Saquon Barkley. Ekwonu’s 18 big-time blocks in the run game, per Pro Football Focus, were seven more than the next-closest Power Five offensive lineman.
Mississippi State·OT · Sophomore (RS)
The Mississippi State tackle allowed just 16 pressures on 719 pass-blocking snaps in 2021, per Pro Football Focus. Cross is a great fit for a Panthers O-line that just finished 31st on PFF's year-end rankings.
(from CHI)
Oregon·Edge · Junior
After posting just 34 sacks last season (tied for 22nd), the Giants could pounce on the high-upside pass rusher out of Oregon.
Georgia·DL · Junior
Walker is an interesting selection, considering the Falcons have a glaring need at wide receiver and could have their pick of the litter here. But snatching up Walker -- while continuing to hit WR in free agency -- adds more to the bottom line than the top receiver prospect would. My favorite Walker note comes from Computer Vision: In all alignments and situations he was used in last year at Georgia, his burst (first 3 yards traveled off the line) never eroded in speed. Walker blew up the NFL Scouting Combine, as well. And his upside is comparable to that of Thibodeaux, with a safer floor due in part to versatility.
(from DEN)
Florida State·Edge · Senior (RS)
Another edge rusher! Seattle's roster has needs everywhere, but the Seahawks could definitely use an explosive edge rusher to pressure the talented quarterbacks in the NFC West.
(from SEA)
Ohio State·WR · Junior
What are the chances that it takes until pick No. 10 for a wide receiver to come off the board? According to my models, a very low 17.5 percent. Wilson remains my top-rated receiver in this draft. His ability to produce both outside and from the slot helps differentiate him from many other top pass catchers in this class.
LSU·CB · Junior
PFF charted Stingley's LSU career completion percentage allowed at 41.1. That kind of sticky coverage would be a huge boon to a Commanders defense that just allowed a 100.8 passer rating to opposing quarterbacks in 2021. Pairing Stingley with Kendall Fuller, who was the bright spot of this secondary last season, creates the most value.
Washington·CB · Junior
I had Stingley here in Mock 1.0. With him off the board, the Vikings grab another CB. Stingley and McDuffie aren't interchangeable -- especially with their different body types/skill sets -- but the discrepancy in win-share value between the two is very minimal.
(from CLE)
USC·WR · Junior
Sometimes, my own models surprise me -- and that's the case here. While the Texans have PLENTY of needs on both sides of the ball, I would've guessed the model would favor a defensive player here, with Houston addressing the offensive line at No. 3 overall. However, with the dwindling pool of free-agent WRs available, taking a big-bodied, contested-catch machine adds the most wins to this team in 2022.
Purdue·Edge · Junior
At his pro day, Karlaftis told NFL Network's Stacey Dales that his self comp is Khalil Mack. The Ravens would be ecstatic if he ended up being 75 percent of Mack. I am high on Karlaftis, primarily due to his power rush.
(from MIA)
Georgia·DT · Senior
I know we talked a lot about his Georgia teammate, Jordan Davis, at the combine, but Wyatt is a darling of Computer Vision metrics, showing explosive traits in pads. While the Eagles did re-sign Fletcher Cox, it's a one-year deal for a 30-something DT who has shown regression in recent seasons. Adding to this spot creates the most value should Philly not trade out of this pick or the next.
(from IND)
Arkansas·WR · Junior
The Eagles' receiving corps benefits most from adding a consistent vertical threat. Watching all 11 of Burks' receiving touchdowns last season -- and using Computer Vision to characterize them -- I saw his ability to dominate from the line of scrimmage quite clearly.
Georgia·DT · Senior
I love this pick for two reasons:
Davis' raw talent offers so much immediate upside for the Bolts, especially when it comes to stopping the run.
Teaching is a huge key for incoming NFL players, and this is a situation where Brandon Staley could help craft a very, very special DT.
Northern Iowa·OT · Senior (RS)
This past season, Penning posted the highest run-blocking grade ever charted by Pro Football Focus (going back to 2014 for college grading), though it should be noted that it primarily came against FCS competition. With Terron Armstead now a Dolphin, Penning would be a Day 1 starter for New Orleans, manning the blind side opposite special bookend Ryan Ramczyk.
Utah·LB · Senior (RS)
Linebackers are some of the hardest players to forecast in terms of fit and win share, but Lloyd stands out from the pack, especially with his ability to blitz and cover. The Eagles could definitely win the NFC East, but upgrading the defense is a big key to making that happen.
Central Michigan·OT · Senior
Same pick as last time around in this slot. Especially with more certainty at the quarterback position, addressing the line is the biggest win-share mover for the Steelers.
Georgia·LB · Junior
If this happens, it'll mark the second year in a row where the board falls the Patriots' way in Round 1, allowing them to fill a glaring need without the need for even a small draft-day trade. With uncertainty about Dont'a Hightower's return, my model has Dean sliding right into a crucial part of New England's defense.
Ohio State·WR · Senior
Anyone shocked seeing a receiver here? To me, Green Bay's history of not drafting first-round wideouts is more of a fun note than a predictive one. Ultimately, it will likely be the Packers' job to select whichever top wideout they like most, though they might have to move up the board to get him.
Alabama·WR · Junior
If Williams hadn't torn his ACL in the national title game, he would have slightly edged out Garrett Wilson for top WR on my board. But he did, and although the 'Bama product says he's "ahead of schedule" in his rehab, it's still an uncertainty. The Cardinals get DeAndre Hopkins back from injury, but Christian Kirk's in Jacksonville and A.J. Green remains a free agent. Williams' route running and speed forecast could nicely complement Hopkins and change the Cardinals' pass-catching potential.
Iowa·IOL · Junior (RS)
Pedigreed interior O-linemen -- especially ones with projected profiles that suggest at least above-average (if not elite) production -- pair well with what we have seen Kellen Moore call. Linderbaum becomes above-average or better in 30.4 percent of outcomes, per my models. Think of 25 percent as a very high number.
Boston College·IOL · Senior
I know the Bills are matching OG Ryan Bates' offer sheet from the Bears, but the value of adding Johnson in the first -- and then reinforcing other positions (like RB) later -- creates the most wins. However, if any of the corners who are already gone in this exercise remain available on draft night, a switch makes sense.
Penn State·WR · Senior
The more the Titans convince opposing teams that they can pass the ball, the better for the offense as a whole. Dotson would help Tennessee do just that as a nice complement to A.J. Brown and Robert Woods.
Minnesota·Edge · Senior (RS)
Computer Vision shows that Mafe's burst (speed off the line of scrimmage) ranks in the top 20 of all edge rushers in the past eight draft classes.
Tulsa·OT · Sophomore (RS)
I was really hoping to get another wideout here, for fun. But nah. The Packers are likely to rely on runs from Aaron Jones/A.J. Dillon and shorter passes -- at least for some time. Davante Adams is my top-rated WR in the league; losing him necessitates an adjustment period, even for the back-to-back MVP. Give Aaron Rodgers a rugged blocker to blow open running lanes and provide time in the pocket.
(from SF through MIA)
Michigan·S · Junior
Pass-stopping defensive pieces might matter most in this loaded AFC West. So, even though the Chiefs have already replaced Tyrann Mathieu with Justin Reid, both this pick and the very next one address the back end of Kansas City's defense. Hill offers plenty of versatility, to boot.
Texas A&M·IOL · Junior
There are defensive areas on this roster that must be addressed, but rounding out a complete overhaul of the interior O-line (after adding Ted Karras and Alex Cappa in free agency) could be a huge boon to the Bengals, who will play a first-place schedule in 2022.
(from LAR)
Michigan·Edge · Sophomore (RS)
Ojabo slides in this mock due to the torn Achilles suffered at his pro day. Considering that I am selecting for wins in 2022, the fact that he's still a first-rounder says a lot about how much my model believes in his raw ability, because it is uncertain how many games he will be able to play as a rookie.
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